Last night, 5/10 NL, I had just busted the resident Donkey with 69dd against his 67cc on a board of 6436J when we got it all in on the turn. It's important to have the boss 9 kicker like that btw.

The villain in this hand hadn't played a ton of hands, but the ones that he had played, he had come in raising from the button to like $60 after there were 3 or more limpers. I saw him do it twice and I decided that he didn't need a hand to do it. I saw one of the hands he showed was QJo, so I figured he was correctly playing his position.

Acid: $1800 ish
Villain: Covers ish

There are 3 limpers and the villain makes it $60. The SB calls and I take a flier in the BB with Q5dd becuase I think that the villain plays semi transparently post flop and he knows how to laydown a hand. I obviously don't make a habit out of calling in spots like this, but when the villain is a weak-ish post flop player and I am sure it'll be a multiway pot, I'll take some shots. It's also great for the advertising budget.

Sure enough, 2 of the other 3 come along and we have a 5 way pot.

Flop (5 Players) $300

5 8 9

We all check to Mr. Preflop raiser and he doesn't disappoint and he bets $100. The SB folds. I laugh inwardly at his comically small bet that cannot possibly protect any kind of hand on that board and I raise to $300 total. It folds back to the villain who asks how deep I am. I inform him that I have like $1400-$1500 left. At this point he reraises me $500 more to $800 total. I stop inwardly laughing around this time. I have $1445 left at this point, so if I wanted to raise him, it's going to be another $945 for him to call. What are you going to do here?


Things I would prefer to not receive comments on include:
Preflop action. I know it's sketchy as all hell, but I had distinct reasons for coming into the pot in the first place.
Leading the flop. I will often lead here, but I figured that the best way to get chips into the pot in this case was with a checkraise.

I would love comments on:
What we think the villain's range is
What my action should be & why
How I manage to post hands where I contemplate putting in $1800 after hitting bottom pair with Q5 soooooooted in a raised pot.

i think your folding equity is decent. the question is, do you think he mucks 10 10 to AA if you move all in?

Even if he calls with those hands we're in decent enough shape here. Like 48% against that range. Of course, we'd have to figure in some sets as well.

Villain's range:
I think villain's range is definitely a draw -- whether it's a straight draw or a better diamond draw than hero, I don't know. But if he does have a draw, he hasn't paired the board yet and we have a ton of his diamond outs. Conversely, he may actually have raised PF on a legitimate hand, and is now about to get stuck because of all his previous shennanigans. Hmm ... why do I think the Kd could be a magical card for us here?

What my action should be & why:
Anyway, since villain is weak post-flop, I'm very tempted to just call and see a turn. Maybe we can get a better read from his turn action. Maybe we see a magical card on the turn. Is it possible that if we call his bet here, he may even check to the river for us and make a bluff on a missed draw and we take it down with fives?

How I manage to post hands where I contemplate putting in $1800 after hitting bottom pair with Q5 soooooooted in a raised pot:
I'm not a real big fan of hands like Q5 sooted. However, I can't talk. I dropped a buy in Sat night when I flopped 2 pair with sooted J2 from the button in a 6-way pot and got it in with AJ when a backup flush draw turned and the board paired on the river to counterfiet me. PLEASE. No comments. Thank you. In other words, we play NL in strange and inexplicable ways sometimes. And get ourselves stuck in weird spots. I don't mind, so long as it's not a habit and we win more than we lose.

this game is beyond me, but ill try.

I would say his most likely hand is a big PP, QQ-AA. Also 88-99 and i think we have to include AKDD and maybe AJDD. What about TJ? You said he raised in this situation with qj, so why not TJ mayeb even dd? But, I do think while all these other hands are possbile, we are looking at a big PP here more often than not.

Given my read of the situation, I would re raise all in. If he does in fact have a PP you are very live, almost a coin flip I beleive. ANd you have some FE vs 1 pair hands ANd there is dead money in the pot. There is no hand in the deck that you really hate to see unless he has something A5DD. So, worst case scenario is that you are called and are 30% to win, if he has a set or straight .

How is thought process, acid? thanks

I think villians range is 55, 88+, 67, AKd, AJd, ATd, TJd, 7Td, Axd, TJ,

I have some serious comtemplations about what your action could be. I would like to see that poker stove thing with my above range. I know this is kinda weird but I think factoring in the possible fold equity and the shot that we are ahead or a flipper, I shove.

yeah definite shove for sure. i said that earlier because its sweet if you can make him lay down an overpair

Most troubling aspect of the hand:

He bet an amount on that super dangerous flop that:
1. Couldn't really protect against draws
2. Was likely to be reraised

He wanted to get raised so that he could put in that 3rd bet. I wouldn't be that eager with an overpair, would you?

What a weird situation - but very interesting! Villain could have raised with any two cards since you said he's tried to pull this squeeze play off a lot, and the only hand he actually SHOWED was QJ. So he could even have 67 in this spot and flopped the nut straight. He could have actually woken up with a big hand this time like AA or KK. I think his range is vast this time.

I think you should move all-in and put the pressure back on him. Even in the worse case scenario where he has the nut straight, you still have 9 outs to the flush. You have fold equity since you've seen him laydown hands in the past.

No matter what happens, your showing of Q5 will give you action later on with your monster hands. I say go for it!

Go ahead and shove. I believe his range includes overpairs, which he might fold. We're very likely drawing very live if we're called.

I like the made straight, because his hand is done growing. If our shove gets called, our hand needs to improve anyway.

So, AK, did you pull a "Naismith" on this one? Running queens or something?

Based on what I thought of this player (despite not being a great post flop player, I thought he was a decent player overall) I did not think that this could be an overpair. I really felt that his line with a big pair would've been to bet big to protect his hand and then reevaluate if he met resistence.

I could've been wrong and I left overpairs as a very small percentage of his range just in case, but I thought his range mostly included BIG draws (straight + flush), 2 pair, a set or a straight.

my read was a set, most likely eights. Flat call the raise (you have no FE for his set) and check the turn no matter what comes. there's a chance he'll think his set is unbeatable and give you a free river. and hey, if he's got a hand like KK, you're as live as can be.

It's tough to really narrow his range down to just pairs though. He's made similar moves with any two cards and one he showed as QJ.

AK, you're like 60.4% vs a straight+fd (JTdd, for example), unless it's like Ad6d or Ad7d, or K6d, K7d, in which case were still 43.7%

Worst case scenario is a set, in which case we're 30%.

If he has two pair, unless it's 95 or 58, which should both be very unlikely (so if he has 2p, it's 89), then we're still 48.6% (doesnt change the situation at all as if we're vs an overpair, since we still have the same outs.)

67 is certainly possible, but against that, we're still 38%. If it's 67d, it's 28%.

I agree. I'm mostly putting villain on straight draw w/a "no good" flush backup OR a bigger flush draw. I like hero's hand. I think we flopped ahead.

Yeah, that 67d is definitely the worst case and it kept popping into my head. I decided to surpress it each time that it did becuase that's just a terrible hand for him to have. Plus, nobody should be allowed to flop that well.

As a side note, later in the night, I raised in MP with JTcc and the flop came down Q89 with the Q and 8 both clubs. I guess the moral there is that I should be allowed to flop that well and nobody else should be

I get you just over 41% against the tight range you mentioned (I just included the diamond AA & KK combos to represent the reduced likelyhood of overpairs)

Take out the overs and you are still ~39%.

If he calls you are shovelling 1445 to win ~2400 which is just under 40% of the pot. Add in any amount of fold equity you may have and shoving is +EV

Anyone want to hazard a guess to the EV of just calling? To me it's too complex so go with what you know is +EV

Why are you not including hands like AdAx and KdKx?

My lack of skill with poker stove

I meant to include those and exclude the others.

Thinking about it more it comes out very very close to neutral EV, especially if we were to weight the frequencies ie He would play this way more often with 6d7d and less often with JdTd

Perhaps shoving is not the answer

I think this is a shove, since you are pretty deep he has to think you have a set here most of the time. Obviously if he is the one with a set you're getting called, but other than that I've put his range as an overpair most of the time, nut flush draw, JTd. I doubt he has just a 9 if your read is that he can lay down a hand, I don't see him 3 betting with A9. He could also have 98 or 76 if he was just position raising.


With the amount of money already in you can't fold, but flat calling leaves half of your stack in the middle so I don't really like that option either. Shoving gives you some FE against overpairs, and the dead money in the pot gives you a good price to draw against sets/ 2 pair/ straight.

Acid has the 5d, so we are ahead of every flush draw.

what were his standard c-bet sizes? If that is the only time he has underbet the pot then I'd be concerned, but some will bet the same amount on the flop regardless of pot size or remaining players.

I think it's important to calculate my equity based on how the hand will play out if I do choose to push.

We make the reasonable assumption that he's calling me with sets, top 2 pair (any other 2 pair hand seems too unlikely to exist here), straights and the big draws which are JTd, T7d and we'll throw in a representative hand like AKdd where he's got 2 big overs and a diamond draw. Logically, he's going to fold everything else.

If he has the 67dd, I'm 28.3% to win
If he has the JTdd, I'm 60.4% to win
If he has a set (basically all the same) then I'm 29.5% to win
If he's got 67o (no diamonds) then I'm 40.1% to win
If he has 89 then I'm 48.2% to win
If he's got AKdd then I'm 51.5% to win.

Considering the weight that I should add to his hands including the stronger end of the range like the 67dd, JTdd, 67o and the sets, It doesn't look like I'm in good shape here overall since many of the hands that he turns over have me drawing basically dead to a flush. If I realize that I'm gonna get called here, then I really should be folding since it'd be like pushing all in on a naked flush draw for the 4th bet on the flop in a spot where he's never going to be in much trouble against my hand but I can be in a lot of trouble against his.

For those of you who have suggested flat calling and seeing what happens on the turn, why would you ever take this line? You'll have less than $1000 left in a pot that is already about $1900. If he pushes, you'll be getting almost 3-1 to call. If you were on a naked flush draw, you'd need 4-1. If any of your other outs are useful, then you'd still have to call. Also, if a diamond rolls off and he didn't have diamonds, you're not going to win anymore money from him.

What if you flat called and the turn rolled off as the Q ? What is your action now?

This was the only time I saw him underbet the pot. In 3 previous hands he played from the button like this, he c-bet about 3/4 to the full pot twice (one being the QJ hand when he flopped top pair) and he checked behind and folded to a turn bet on the third.

all in

contribute something constructive

Are you assuming your FE is nearly 0?

i'm answering your question concerning Qh on the turn. at that point you have no choice but to get it all in, even if he has TdJd.

why not just flat call his small flop bet then? maybe you also get a few people chasing behind you, and your raise isn't going to scare off AX or KXd.

Pretty close to it becuase I couldn't see the overpairs playing like that. If he had that hand, I was sure he'd fold it. The only hand that played like this that I thought I might have any FE over was 89 and maybe, MAYBE 55 since they're so close on the spectrum of hands here. I really thought he'd make a crying call with any set here and I'm obviously getting instacalled by the straight and the bigger draws.

1. There are 2 people in between us and I'd hate to get squeezed or have to deal with 2 or 3 opponents on the turn.
2. My hand is literally too big not to raise
3. I didn't have enough information about his hand to know he was super strong at this point. That happened after he 3-bet me.
4. If I flat called and there was a bigger flush draw in one of the other opponents' hands, then it'd encourage them to play the pot instead of folding. I really think that any sane player is folding Ax or Kx of diamonds after I raise to $300 becuase the possibility of them getting squeezed by the orginal preflop raiser is too great.

i'm still stickin' with the set, 88 in his hand. when do we find out what this guy has?

when everyone is done discussing it

If overpairs aren't in his range it's an extremely tough push. I don't regularly play in games where people will fold big overpairs in spots like this which is a good reason for playing weaksauce suited. If you can't stack Villain with an overpair I wouldn't call PF in the first place.

Maybe I'm reading you incorrectly and he doesn't have overpair because of how he played the hand, which would be odd (small flop then raise c/r). I'm not good (bad, however you look at it) enough to call a raise with Q5dd hit bottom pair with flush draw and then not get my chips in. But the people I play against definitely have all overpairs in their range. Basically if you were willing to gamble preflop with your call I think you wanted to play a big pot when you hit a tricky flop, here's your flop, and your chance to play a big pot. And your advertising!

Very interesting hand. My first reaction was to ship it in there but after thinking it through some more I'm not so sure. On my more conservative days I might just dump it if i really thought my opponent knew what he was doing. His play is so strange, it only makes sense for a move, either a really weird bluff, or a really strong made hand, more than one pair or a huge draw. If its a strong hand, the only real strong hands we want him to turn over are two pair. We don't have much fold equity against his likely hands that we're beating, the big draws, so if he has those we're just gambling. Yeah, the more I think about it the more I'm thinking folding is the best option. If he outplayed you then nh sir. I just can't picture a hand that would play like this that is folding to our push (outside of a weirdly played overpair or bluff), and if this is the case we're racing, at best.

Let me try and break this down. Could be way off, but I feel slightly ambitious.

1) Overpairs: AcAh,AcAs,AhAs,QQ-TT - 49.167%

2) Overpair + big diamond: AdAs,AdAc,AdAh,KdKs,KdKc,KdKh - 45.808%

3) Big draws: JdTd,Td7d,Jd7d,AdKd,Ad7d,Ad6d - 53.081%

4) Made straight (incl straight+fd): 67o,67s - 38.217%

5) Sets: 99-88,55 - 29.978%

6) Two Pairs: 98s,98o - 48.620%



I'm assuming the only the only thing we have a chance of folding, would be the first and second categories. Anyone disagree here? I'd say also maybe an 80% chance that our shove folds group 1, and say a 67% chance that our shove fold the second group.

I think the big draws call every time, since the pot odds are hue, and he could possibly play it like this in order to get as much in as possible on the flop.

Made straights, will obviously call.

I can't imagine sets ever folding here, as they never far too bad.

Finally, I'll assume a 2 pair hand that he's played this far, will call off for the rest.


If we put this all together:

This is his range: AcAd,AcAs,KcKd,KcKs,QcQd,JcJd,99-88,55,AdKd,Ad7d,Ad6d,JdTd,Jd7d,Td7d,98s,76s,98o,76o

Notice I include 1 out of every 3 combinations of KdKx to account for the fact that I think he folds 2/3 of the time, and I've included only 4 out of the 18 cominations of group 2 hands (AA,KK no diamond, and QQ, JJ) in order to account for the 80% time that I feel he folds those.

So, our equity when called is: 42.331%.




Our effective odds of the shove:

After his reraise, there's $1400 in the pot. We've got $1445 behind according to the OP. If we shove, it means he'd be calling $945 more, making the effective pot $2395, and we're shoving $1445 into that.

This means our equity when called needs to be ($1445/$3840) 37.63%

So... that's +EV...

And we also win what's in the pot x% of the time that he folds his overpair hands. I don't think that makes up a ton of his range, mind you.

I've lost my ambition to completely finish this, and I also don't have a great grip on complicated EV calculations, but nonetheless, I think I've proven that shoving is +EV.

At least it is given the assumptions I've made.

Zach,

That was very impressive, but could you retype that out again, only this time in Spanish?

Much love,

-AK

I'm Canadian...

I could do French, if you wanted?

Very impressive thought process. I think given the discussions thus far, I would say pushing all-in > folding > flat-calling.

I typed out French first, realized you were Canadian and then wanted to make sure you were challenged.

You silly math people. Looking at it that way, I think I agree that pushing is better than folding. Thanks for that Zach.

I'm gonna override Zach's very good mathematical analysis becuase I think that too many hands are included. I think he has an overpair here a very small portion of the time, if it all and a big diamond draw an equally small portion of the time since it is a bad play to reopen the betting (with or without position) and commit yourself ot the hand with a big naked flush draw when so many bets are going back and forth. After thinking about everything, the only 3 hands that I think are calling a push and playing like this are JTdd, a set and the straight.

I think (irregardless of the villain's hand) that folding>pushing>calling. I really didn't have enough time during the hand itself to come to these conclusions.

I obviously pushed.

No overpairs even included.

We only need 37% equity to breakeven, effectively. Assuming he never folds. If he does fold, then that's even better for us.

To expand upon that...



Take out the big diamond draws, even the flush draw + gutshot hands.

We're still >40%.

If you eliminate the overpairs, he's never folding the rest of his range after putting in that many chips.

Right, and we're still getting the best of it.

Look ****ers, I'm supposed to be the nit.

The final pot is the 3 other players' dead ~180 plus Acid Knight's stack twice for 180 + 1800 x 2 = $3780. He has to invest $1345.

break even win % = $1445/$3780 = 38.2%



Folding is right out. Surely the villain occasionally has something worse than these hands.

I had it as $1445/$3780... but I don't feel like going over it again, lol.

Either way... SHOVEL!