Shimmering Wang
Tuesday, June 5th, 2007, 8:21 PM
QUOTE (Actuary @ Tuesday, June 5th, 2007, 11:34 PM)

I'm ok with your play up to this point, sometimes preferring to check flop and call or raise depending on if SB calls a bet, generally
The play here is MATH based, supported by reads
Say Villain shows you his hand now and has exactly AsKs.
And villain will always bet the river or call one bet.
What should you do now?
Pot is 7 BB. You will also win a bet on the River if you improve.
You have 5 outs (2 7's and 3 10's). There are 52-2-2-3 = 45 unknown cards (since you see he has AK)
Getting 8:1 with 5 outs, you have EXACTLY the odds you need, with 40:5 bad:good cards in the deck
If villain always bets the river when checked to, then we can plan to c/r the river and then for sure it's correct to call the turn to hit 5 outs
Of course, that's a fantasy world and we really don't know what he has
now,...I'll try not to get carried away...but we are just scratching the surface....
Sometimes villain has 99 and you have no outs
Then you might c/r the river if a 7 or T comes and he will 3 bet you, losing you a good deal of $$$
Sometimes villain won't bet the river with AK and you lose the extra BB and essentailly made a bad call on the turn, getting "7:1"
BUT, by far, the biggest element is "how often are you still ahead, and villain is just raising a scare card here?"
When he is bluffing, you sometimes have to call a River bet as well to win, and sometimes he checks behind (which he may do with AK anyway)
When you call two bets, you are getting 8:2 or 4:1 to call down. We already know that with 5 *outs* getting 4:1 is not enough.
So how often does he need to be bluffing for us to call the turn and river?
Lets assume a few things to get the math started:
- Villain will bet a bluff 70% of the times on the river
- Villain will check with AK 30% of the time and bet the other 70%, and always call a raise
- Villain will 3 bet the river with a 99, after you check raise
- You know that if he 3-bets river you are beat, so you fold to a 3 bet
- You will c/c any river UI (or assume you will fold an Ace on the river)
- You will c/r a 7 or T on the river and fold to a 3-bet
Play with the percentages and find that sometimes the best play is to fold now (not too often), sometimes you shoudl call now and fold the river UI, and sometimes you should see showdown no matter what card comes....
for now my head hurts.
This is why limit is stupid because I just move all-in on the flop to protect my hand or bluff the turn LOLOL~!