PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, T.
2 folds, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) T, 5, 7 (3 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, Button folds.

Turn: (2.50 BB) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero...

Villain is 50/1/0.7. The only times I've seen him raise he has had the goods.

I'd fold in this spot.

The pot is tiny here.

+ Top Pair
+ Against a limper
+ Draw Heavy Board
+ Facing a very possible positional semi-bluff raise

It'll likely cost you 2 bets to win a probable 6.

Against a standard opponent I call down every time.
So your read must be solid to warrant a fold here.



If you've played with someone long enough to trust the numbers and observations, then your read can take precedence over standard logic in many circumstances.
It's up to you.

--CM

Man, I almost never fold, but in this spot, we need to have the best hand at showdown 1/3rd of the time... I don't think that ever happens vs this villain.

AF of 0.7 = never make a good positional semi-bluff raise?

If that number is solidified through many many hands, then maybe so.

It's tough for me to determine how strong OP's read is.
And I think the confidence in his read is the deciding factor here.
Because the numbers alone (if possibly flimsy) would not sway my decision here, since we are ahead well more than 1/3 of the time against standard opponents.

--cm

How often to players with loose-passive stats make advanced semi-bluff raises?