Villain's stats are 35/15/3


Ultimate Bet
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25./$0.5
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with Q J
Hero calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: 9 K 5 (3SB, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: T (3.5BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: K (9.5BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 15.5BB

So, should I have capped the turn? I felt at the time I could get more bets on the river if I just call the 3-bet. Should I have just called on the river?

Oh yeah, preflop was a misclick. I meant to raise. God I hate touchpads.

I was gonna say I fold preflop, but 5 handed table, I'd probably raise. 6 is a fold for me. If it's not for you, I'll explain why. Back in my huge downswing, I discovered I was leaking up front, so removed a few hands from my UTG opening range, they included QJo, QTo, and usually KTo. Those hands weren't profitably for me up front, 6 handed. I think 5 handed I'd still play at least QJo and KTo.

Anyways, meh

I'd cap the turn, and hope he leads the river again for me to raise, but as played, not much else you can do on the river, meh. Calling would be too weak, I think, since we set it up to raise. No value in capping.

Yeah, QJo is almost always a fold from utg for me, but when I do play it I'm raising. Preflop was a misclick.

Yeah, I know you didn't mean to limp it, but I wanted to see what others felt about that ugly hand.

I open QJo in hj and fold it UTG 6 handed aswell.

I dont like the flop bet. On average Id say we have 7~ outs so our bet isnt for value and I cant imagine this guy just c/f anything, but it may give us some fold equity later in the hand if he had an A high hand. I may be wrong on the number of outs we have here due to the guys AF though. It seems like a guy with a 3 AF with a 35 VPIP is gonna be c-betting us here close to 100% of the time unless he is trying to smash us by c/r. His high AF might be due to folding flops here too often, but I dont think a guy that is loose preflop is likely to have that problem.

On the turn I dont get why we arent capping. Waiting for the river gets the same amount of bets in under most circumstances as capping the turn does but doesnt give the opponent the chance to lead the river when we cap the turn. Remember 4 bets on the turn plus 1 on the river is the same as 3 on the turn and 2 on the river, but capping the turn gives us a greater chance of 6+ bets on the turn + river.

On the river I think Im more scared of a fh than some of these guys but I think villain has AA or AK here enough to make raising correct.

Yeah, I fold QJ here.
I open raise 5-handed.

No reason to bet the flop.
When an aggressive PFR checks the flop, he has no intention of folding.
I believe that PFRs are, in general, much more likely to fold to a raise after they bet than to fold to a bet after they check.
Zero fold equity = check the flop.

When we have the nuts on the flop, it is sometimes ok to softplay (not cap) so that you can pump the turn when the bets are bigger.
But softplaying the turn to wait for the river is often pointless. Since the bets are the same.
Cap the turn with your nuts.

--CM