CoranMoran
Monday, June 4th, 2007, 12:06 PM
Villain's play represents a hand that beats us.
It looks like an overpair.
If all of our overs were clean...
+ 46 unknown cards
+ 6 good cards
+ 40 bad cards
= about 7-1 odds we will hit the river.
We are getting 8-1 odds on calling.
So under these simplistic conditions, calling would be right.
But there are other factors that change things.
--> We can't count our overs as 3 outs each. The standard rule is to count each over as 1.5 outs. (Since Villain could easily have A8, A5, A3, which would kill all of our Ace outs).
--> We do not close the turn action with our call. And if UTG check-raises, we either pay 2 bets to see the river or we paid 1 bet to see nothing.
These 2 factors kill our odds.
And it makes calling the turn a poor play.
QUOTE
Replying to Ak Against A Maniac
The fact that he is a maniac may mean that we are still ahead.
And if this read is accurate, it often makes calling down the whole way heads up with AK-unimproved acceptable.
But with that 3rd player still there, we are behind too often.
I fold.
Note: Against a maniac, I do not bet the flop in the first place.
Since Villain will often be raising our bet with anything, and is unlikely to fold whatever he has, we accomplish very little with a bet.
Let them bluff off their money.
And just push back when we have a strong hand.
--CM