Hero is CO with AsKh.

The entire table is filled with players that see the river with any perceived piece of the board. In this pot, they can't be blamed. UTG is a maniac. A good guy, but a maniac.

UTG straddles. UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, everyone calls except the CO, Hero 3 bets, SB and BB call, UTG caps blind, everyone calls. (22.5 BB) (9 to the flop)

Flop Ks 10h 7h

UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+ 2 raises, everyone calls, Hero raises, everyone calls. (31.5 BB) (9 to the turn)

Turn 4s (Ks 10h 7h)

Checked to me, I bet, everyone but UTG calls. (39.5 BB) (8 to the river)

What river cards can I value bet? I really dont think I can bet an ace, a jack, a queen, a nine, a spade or a club. Can I really bet anything over than the Kd? Any pair with any kicker is seeing this river, and might check call if they hit their kicker.

You have your pot sizes wrong. Since there was a straddle there should be 5 bets for everyone preflop.

Also Id have to bet more cards than you, but then again Ive never been in a situation anything like this before and I have alot of experience playing live 4/8.

This is sickening.

Preflop 9 players x 5bets = 45 SB = 22.5 BB, right?

Flop 9 players x 2 bets = 18 SB = 9 BB. 9 + 22.5 = 31.5.

Turn 8players x 1 Big Bet = 8 BB. 8 + 31.5 = 39.5


4-8 is the lowest game available in the Downtown Vancouver area. There are times where it doesn't play as donkish, but 8 to the river isn't out of the question. It takes a lot of nerve to bet TpTk on the river into 7 players. It is hard to gauge what any one player is holding.

So this is a serious post?

There's 40 BB in this pot before the river card is even dealt?

I don't even know what to do on the river. My head is exploding thinking about it.

Like, you can't fold, like even 4 cold is practically a call/

Yes, this is serious. It is a big pot, even for this game, but you seriously see at least 3 25BB pots per session. Especially on a weekend where a lot of donks and drunks show up. Almost every pot reaches at least 10BBs.

I was once involved in a 50BB pot there, but I can hardly remember the details of it.

Well, you're in better shape than you think, man, and here's why:

- You hold the As, meaning an ace can't roll off completing a spade flush.

- You hold the Kh, meaning a king can't roll off completing a heart flush

- With this many players in, there's a good chance multiple players are holding other players' outs. If two players have 7x or Tx, they're hurting each other. If 56 is hoping to complete his runner/runner straight, he's in a little more trouble because 89 has killed one of his outs. Same with 89 w/r/t JQ, and 56 (one fewer eight in deck, one fewer 9 in deck, etc.). If two players have flush draws in the same suit, each player has two of his opponent's outs in his hand.

- Your ace means many desperation hands hoping to spike a 5 outer trips or two-pair hand are in trouble. Because your Ace will give you top two, and kill their hand.

- JQ is drawing a little less live, given the A in your hand. Chop off one of their outs right there.


You're in trouble if somebody already has two pair, but against T7, you've got 8 outs if we disregard flush draws (3 aces, 2 kings, and 3 fours). When you're behind, you almost surely have more than 1 out. Your visibility sucks, but given the action so far, most passive players are going to be unwilling to punish you if they spike a squirrely two-pair. If a 3 rolls off and somebody makes tens and threes, not many players in this game are going to go raise, given the perceived likelihood that somebody already has a better hand. These players are bad, and chase 5 outers, then- in a contradictory fashion- believe there's a good chance they're behind EVEN WHEN THEY GET THERE.


In short, here's my plan.

Bet: Any non-spade K or non heart A.

Any 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 that doesn't complete a spade flush. I'll bet the hearts, due to the decreased likelihood that somebody stuck around for runner runner, even though it's still not unlikely.

Paint cards are tougher. Qs and Js are scary cards, because KQ, KJ, QT, and TJ are likely holdings, as are pocket pairs like QQ and JJ.


You'll get drawn out here alot- and you might be behind already given the action- but plenty of cards that look scary won't hit anyone square, and when they do you're less likely to get raised by a weakish hand that has you beat. In theory, the two best cards in the deck is the Kd, but it's a mistake to think that EVERYBODY has EVERY draw that you don't want to see completed. You might not know when you're still ahead, but some bad cards might be good for you.

I'm inclined to bet in order to get value from weak passive players who are calling down light, and confidently fold to a raise if some weak-passive wakes up and raises out of nowhere. Unless you think there's a good chance a bad player is capable of raising the second best hand as a bluff, even in a pot this size there are still plenty of instances where folding to a raise on the river is correct. That being said, you might feel more comfortable check-calling in order to show down without getting outplayed.


Wang

Wang, a lot of what you wrote went through my head as I played the hand. There are a few things to consider though:

1) I really think a 9 is a card I can't bet. JQ, J8 as well as 10 9 (which is a reasonable holding for someone given this action) all get there. I will concede it is close, but I still think, given the amount of players, that this is a bad card. I agree I should bet an ace, although the Ah still scares me.

2). I was somewhat exagerating in my thread title, but if you consider that any pocket pair containing a spade (meaning their set won't complete a flush) will likely be taken to the river, as well as any flopped pair regardless of kicker, almost any card can present some fear. I think if a 2 or 3 hits the river, I can bet, simply because I am likely to be called by a lot fo worse hands more often than one better hand shows up.

3) I really don't think I could fold this pot to a checkraise, especially if no real scare card hits. I am all for folding when it seems like we are beat, but we would be getting over 40-1 on our money to make this call.

I was impressed by that pot until Wang came and blew me away.
If I contributed at all to bringing Wang back into this forum (I'd like to think so after he started to post on my threads a bit), then I want a raise.

I have no idea how to play this; but I'm not folding to a c/r.