PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: YourNightMare is MP3 with , .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, YourNightMare calls, 1 fold, Button raises, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, YourNightMare calls.

Flop: (9 SB) , , (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, YourNightMare checks, Button bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, YourNightMare raises, Button calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, YourNightMare ?

All Villain, 24/5/1.2 ish players. typical

lol, do you do this on purpose?

This is your second topic where the title shows the wrong hand, lol.

Preflop is fine.

Flop is perfect.

Turn, I think I'd be checking. I'd hate to get raised by the button here, if he has AK or something. I check, and call one, obv, but a free card is pretty good too.

Agree. The K is a scary card and at this point you have an 8 high - get a look at the river as cheaply as possible.

I check the turn because I don't want the button making the rest of the field call 2 cold. Our hand actually plays great four-handed here, and we probably have enough equity to get a bet in if we're called 4 times. But we won't be most of the time. If the button bets, and two players call, could you find a SECOND sneaky value-check/raise? That'd be fun.

Wang

everyone fears Button raises here

we need 2 callers essentially, right?

I don't fear it, but it's an awful situation that can easily be avoided.

you lead flushes and straights and check all other cards?

Not necessarily.

I'd probably not lead an Ace here, and most likely not a K. I don't hate a lead on other cards because we've got decent equity even on the turn here, and some fold equity, I imagine.

The thing about the A, K turns is that they are good cards for the button to bluff at, so we still get our bet in, in that case.

I would be more likely to bet the turn if I felt I could take this pot down unimproved. We almost never do.

I probably do lead the river if I hit. With 2 checks in front of us, we have to be very sure the button will bet for us to check. I think the turn action is important to consider before we decide what the best river play is:

4 scenarios:

1. Turn checks around
2. Button bets, UTG 1 and 2 both call.
3. Button bets, only one UTG calls.
4. Button bets, both fold.

If we believe all 15 of our outs are good, we're getting at least 9.5-1 to call a 2.3-1 shot.

So if we hit, by scenario:

1. I'm gonna lead if it comes to me. I only need one of the 3 to call for this to work more than hoping the button will bet 50% of the time. And I'm calling a raise from the button.
2. Same as above - now the pot is even bigger so crying calls are much more likely. Sets and 2 pairs will virtually always call. Smaller straights too (if a 4 comes).
3. This is borderline. I still lean towards value bet.
4. Now it's only us and the guy who showed turn agression. I'm likely to check because I think he will bet more hands than he will call with.


How's that? I think I like that analysis - coming to these forums was a good move for me. Thinking a lot more.

I think Actuary was actually answering my query as to the viability of check/raising the turn. If the button bets, and the other two players come along, will Actuary raise it up again, trapping everyone for a single extra bet with our fifteen-outer? We get there 1/3.25ish times (making us a 2.3-1 shot, not a 3.3-1 like you stated).


Wang

I really like the idea of a c/r for value with 8 high on the turn, heh.

It's not terrible if it checks through, and we get to see if button will bet, and who will tag along. Equity raising on the turn is a sickly advanced play, heh.

As long as your equity is greater than 1/n, where n is the number of players putting money into the pot, we can raise here.

I bet the turn.
I thought fold equity + value makes it ok.
I figured I'll get 2+ calls almost always, and with more attachment to the pot, river will bring more calls.

Also, I think a lead might have some FE since it reprsents a 47s or set.
But I guess I need 3 folds, as 1 or 2 is not going to help

The only really bad outcome is Button raising and leaving it HU.
And even then, I lose 2BB and gain 1.3BB and river c/r a lot.

(I mis spoke and used "lead", well, we are 3rd to act, so I dont' think "lead" is correct)
Frez, I know I can call even HU, even 2 BB's cold, I'm more concerend with the equity of putting in extra bets voluntarily.

Typo - corrected. More than one actually. Thanks.

And sorry, I didn't get the 'need two callers' as coming after a hero bet and button raise. Yes, would need two callers (well, 2.3 to be exact). Though wouldn't the button count? If you're 2.3-1, as long as 2.3 bets go in from other players for every one you put in, it's OK. So if the button raises and one of the UTGs call you are marginal getting 2-1, and if both UTGs call you're +EV at 3-1 on your 2.3-1 shot. Pretty much what Zach wrote with 1/n equity for n players.


Corrections made, how's my logic on whether or not to lead the river?