Details:

These hands occurred on the same table against the same villain. In fact, Hand 2 occurred 3 hands after Hand 1.

The villain in these pots is 83/47/2.41, with a river AF of 6.0. However, the sample is only over 38 hands, and that means, while these numbers were close for the whole session, these hands probably took place around the 20th-25th hand or so in his session. Villain was very aggro pf, but I hadn't seen him do anything crazy postflop.

My thinking in hand 1 was that the ace was a good turn card to continue to bet on. One he calls, my only chance to win the pot is to bet. Sure, he could have less than a jack, but he'd certainly fold any draw ending in king high or queen high.

Hand 2 was a direct result of hand 1. Obviously, he folded the first one, so I felt I could try it again on the 2nd one. It's a bit different because we're OOP. If I was in pos, I'd take the free showdown. Do we ever fold better hands here? Or should we be check/calling, or check/folding?


Hand 1:

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with J T
3 folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 7 3 2 (4.5SB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: A (3.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: 6 (5.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB ....


Hand 2:

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with Q A
UTG folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero raises, CO calls, SB folds.

Flop: T 9 8 (5SB, 2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: 4 (3.5BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: 3 (5.5BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, CO ....

I don't like these hands.

Yes, I bet this Ace every time.



Villain defended his blind,
Called the 732 rainbow flop,
Called the Ace on the turn.

What hand can we put him on that includes a King or Queen that was also drawing?

If Villain is loose, I expect him to continue to call down 1 more bet on the river with any piece.
So bluffing this river seems worthless.
If he were drawing, I expect him to have less than Jack-high.
So bluffing this river is not necessary.

I see no point in a bet.
I check this down.



Draw-heavy board.
So Villain may have been chasing.
We could certainly still be ahead.
But once again, when a loose opopnent has gone all the way to the river, I expect them to always call 1 more bet with any piece.

I only see better hands calling.
And I see no better hands folding.
Thus I see no value in a bet.

I check.
And probably call against this LAG opponent.


--CM

the only hands we really beat besides the ax's are 56 and kj

it's ermf, anyone argue for an actual check/fold here?