UTG 40 hands, TPish, MP taggish

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Actuary is BB with , .
UTG raises, MP 3-bets, 3 folds, Actuary caps, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) , , (3 players)
Actuary bets, UTG raises, MP 3-bets, Actuary calls, UTG caps, MP calls, Actuary calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) (3 players)
Actuary checks, UTG bets, MP raises, Actuary calls, UTG 3-bets, MP calls, Actuary calls.

River: (20.25 BB) (3 players)
Actuary checks, UTG bets, MP calls, Actuary calls.

Final Pot: 23.25 BB

give it to me straight.

I really think you can fold that flop when it's two cold to you.

If not, you can fold the turn when it's two cold to you.

I really dislike this without reads that they are crazy. In which case I'm capping the flop, leading the turn, and folding if it's two cold to me at any point, generally.

Fold flop? So you're giving one of these guys credit for TT? Because it's entirely likely we're up against two of JJ, QQ, KK, even the other AA and sometimes AK, particularly AcKc. TT is certainly possible, but I'm gonna pay it off here unless the board gets really ugly on later streets.

This is a pretty good flop for AA given the preflop action. There is only ONE hand that makes any sense here that's ahead of us, so folding here is pretty impossible and absurd. MP looks like AA-JJ, and UTG looks like 44, TT,QQ,KK,AA, with a litle more weight given to TT, given his non-maniacal ways, and a little less given to quads because of the UTG raise.

You can't fold the flop, and I think unless somebody slows down on the turn, then speeds up again suspiciously on the river when a danger card comes off, it's going to be tough to find a fold anywhere. I'd like to know exactly HOW passive we think the UTG player is. That's the key to the hand.

Wang

****, I'm retarded.

I didn't even look at preflop action.

Ignore me, as usual.

after 130 hands he is now 12/1.5/1.2 yes, he raises 1.5%.

And those stats are after all the raises he put in here psot flop.
I think it was about 0.6 AF prior to this hand
But given how tight he is, he only played about 8 hands at that time.

I did not cap flop in order to see if he did.
Once UTG capped, I knew I was not going to pop the turn and I was going to shoot MP (well, fearing monsters, we really have so little info on UTG given the few hands he played)

Does this player even raise TT UTG? Is the sample size too small to truly tell?

Looks good. Only question would be not capping flop, but with your reasoning, I can understand. I think you only have to dodge TT. With those reads, even AK clubs doesn't make sense with the turn play.

I'm really liking the idea that this is AA vs AA vs KK (with UTG having the other two aces).

Please tell me that's what gets showed down, here. Either that or AA vs KK vs KK.


Wang

I got that same feeling.

UTG: TT
MP: QQ