There is an analogous situation in the card game bridge called the Rule of Restricted Choice.The basic situation is: AJTxx opposite xxxx to lose only one trick. First you play small to the J, when it loses to the K or Q, the next trick you play small to the T. Since your opponent had a choice to win the K or Q (equal cards) it is about 2:1 more likely that the other opponent has the other high card.This is the same Bayes choice in the 3 Aces problem. In 2 cases, Daniel has to show the card that is not the Ace of Spades, and in one case, Daniel has a choice to eliminate either other Ace. He
