Curious if there's room for raising the turn here? Maybe you're flatting for pot control, cause if he rejams you think you have to call or something... to me it depends on your intentions on the turn for how the river plays out but you're flat on the turn forces a call on the river too.
Flop Check-Raising on the flush draw isn't out of the question but unlikely. So the story he's telling is a 7, with the turn bet enough of a problem with his story to call the river. I don't see value in raising the river, but river value is a problem with my game so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a case for it.
Hands in his range that win:
- any 7 specifically aware of A7 because of his betsize drop on the turn (I would try and think back here of any noticeable betsizing tells on bet to pot ratio... )
- check raising with flush draw (probably with straight draw included because we know he doesn't have Ah or Kh in his hand.)
Hands in his range that lose:
Unfortunately Jx is the most likely in my mind without more information on his play and betting.
Again I like to raise the turn to control the hand and bet on the river/for info... very likely taking him off of value betting a bunch of hands that you have beat... but opening the door to losing your stack instead of half your stack.
Hand oneblind at 50/ 100 everyone at the table is around 12k in chips as there hasn't been a lot of big hands, played to this point.I'm in the big blind and look down at two pretty Laddies (QhQc). I have 6 limpers to me at this point, I decided that this simply won't do and I pop it up to 500, I get one caller from a guy who hasn't played a hand yet. Needless to say I'm going to play the hand pretty cautious from this point foward. I'm putting him on A-10 suited(prolly not) AJ suited (maybe) A-q (I have two highly doubt it.) AK (seems reasonable) AA-JJ ( Perhap) He just called my 500 though so in my mind AA-KK are prolly out, Then this flop comes out.Qs-10h-9c,The pot is sitting at about 1400, He checks, I fire in 1k, I want to see where I'm at. Maybe a bit on the highside, maybe not. He tanks for a while and finnaly calls. At this point I eliminate AA-KK, and have him on AK-AJThe turn is a Kd The pot is sitting at 3400,He checks I throw in a bet of 2200. He insta shoves, I take a slow breath and start to replay the hand in my mind. I don't think he is going to make this play with AK, as he seems like a competent player up to this point. I have shown strength the whole way through the hand. Want should I do?HAND 2Another hand that happened at that level that I found intresting I'm on the button with KQs There have been 5 limpers and I think why not, 100 to perhaps flop a monster, SB and BB complete and we go into the pot 7 handed.FlopJh10h9dGIN!!! but a nasty flush draw. UTG+3 leads into the 700 dollar pot with a 400 raise. Folds around to me, The sb has prematurly thow in his hand and the Big blind asked the waitress where the restroom is. I'm pretty sure I'm just up against the one guy and with the nuts I don't really want scare him off so I smooth. (Righ play I don't know A reraise might have been in order to define my hand, and with 1100 in the pot it isn't horrid to pick it up. But, with the nuts you want to milk... the flush draw is scary though I think I should have re poped.)TurnKqso 1500 in the pot and he fires in 800, I tank for a while and now realizing my error decided I need to price him out in all likely hood of a flush draw. The only problem is now a q alone completes the straight. I reraise to 2k, He insta shoves. What should I do?Hand 3100-200 I'm in the bb and have about 7k in ships. After having donked some off the hand before. I look down at two black Kings. UTG a tight player raises to 600. and 4 player limp behind him... I decide with 2.4k in chips in the middle I'm ok with taking the hand down right now and raise to 2k,folds around to a player who arived late and don't know that well, he reraises to 4k. so now, I sit back and start to think. He hasn't played a lot of hands what can he have I come up with AA, AK, QQ. There is 2400 in the pot from the players, 4k from him and 2k from me. Folding is out of the question, I can smooth call making the pot 10,400 leaving me 3k behind. If I shove and he calls I'm getting roughly in my math hope it's right 4-1 so, my call makes the pot 10,400 my all in makes13,400 his call makes it 16,400. so in my mind 3000 more to pick up 16,400 if he calls, and a nice pick up if he folds. Even if he does have the dreaded AA I'm 20% to win the hand. Seems to me the odds are right. What should I do? Shove or smooth?If I smooth and A comes on the flop I have 3k left to play with, not in great shape but playable.
If you are going to play that hand in that position I would have limped. Once the first person calls your bet of just 275 most others will follow because of the odds get better and better (due to the antes)first guy getting just about 2-1second guy getting 3 -1SB getting almost 5-1BB getting 7.5-1This is where antes make the game more and more complex for those that just play ABC poker. With that many players just the antes alone pretty much equal the BB so if you chose to play 67 in mid position I would have limped and folded to a proper raise or opened with a bet of around 400 or 450. I am gussing you wouldn't have had that many callers. From there it would depend on who is calling you. But once the hand played out as it did 2050 on the turn heads up IMO was too much if you weren't planning on calling a shove. I think a not so quick check there makes a world of difference.
1vikingsfan, on Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012, 8:06 PM, said:
Daniel I really respect your opinion so I am curious how you would answer this question. I have a guy that wants to bet me on cashing in the WSOP $1k event. Let's say 3300 entries and 330 get paid. What would you say are the odds for a average player and above avg player cashing?
Average player by definition would be 9-1. Above average player probably not any better than 4.5-1.