AK95

Now that is fine to disagree about, the likilihood of the holdings of the players. We can disagree about that, and that is the real issue.For example, from your side, you need to assign a percentage to the fourth player of how often they have a flush. She bet the flop $20, and got called by the first player who limped into the pot. What are the chances this player has a flush? Saying 0% is just silly. What are the chances this player play Ac5c, and just called the $20 bet, which I think most people should agree would be a reasonable way to play if you have that hand.Likewise, what are the

Now you are getting it a little at least. there are a huge number of variables. Some she is favorable against. Some she is stone dead. The KJ is just a likely hand, perhaps the most likely, given the read you insist she must follow.But there are lots of other hands to consider.

this is the biggest issue here, and this is something that both AK95 and anyone that's agreeing with him based on his convoluted math is arguing against.Seriously, you need to understand what a read is. Not once have either of you even tried to justify how we can be 100% sure the FOURTH player has no flush, let alone the two who pushed all in!Her read on those two was right, but that isn't somehow the end of it. There is another player, who you assume has no flush, ever. Then you have to judge how sure of a read you are. You say you are 100% sure. That's just seriously nuts. Real players

no, the math isn't rightshe led out for 20 and was called, and 2 others went allin for 150. that means it's 130 for her to call for 360, not 150 to call for 370I forgot the $20 call. There are four people preflop. On the flop she bets 20, and gets called by Player4. Two others go in for 150. If she calls the 130, the pot will be 490, minus rake (probably $4).Against K2, the 36% of 486 = 175So against the very favorable K2, betting the 130 has an expectation of $45.Against the more likely KJ, even though she has the worst hand, she's about $12 positive, due to the dead money already in the

Yeah I should ignore, but I don't deal with novices very often and this is enlightening to me to see people so aggressively defend such clearly bad play.Pupsta the facts of the math are right. $20 preflop. Three players put in $150 on the flop. Minus rake. (The only thing that may not be exactly right is the two players went all in, so we are just assuming they had the same amount, one could have $5 more or less than the other, something like that.)

Aside from the terminally stubborn, or perhaps someone who just innocently didn't understand my language, you can see that under just about the BEST possible scenario, you only profit $38 and instance.Three of these BEST instances (38x3=114) doesn't even equal one time you lose when facing a flush.But then more realistically we aren't facing K2, but hands like KJ or K9 where calling makes you have the worst expectation. Only KQ and KT allow us to have a smallish profit.Sometimes you face a flush, and that is a disaster. Sometimes you face two sets or the Kc and the Ac, those are the best sce

And what do you not understand?You read the situation right... you face the hands we have been talking about... you make $38 an instance.You read the situation wrong... you face a flush... you lose $130 an instance.What exactly can't you understand?

I never said anything about how I play. I'm just pointing out the math, and the obvious correctness of one line of play. On the other hand we have people saying they are 100% sure of their reads. No one over 15 seriously can believe that, otherwise why don't your opponents just turn their cards face up.I'm not sure why the one fellow keeps not understanding the math. Under the defined circumnstances there is a $38 profit per action. Make it 100 hands that you call, total pots of 46,600 36% of that is 16776. To get that 16,776, you have to put in 13,000. That is the best scenario, with o

never mind, LOL

If you had showed any real understanding of the math at any point through this thread, someone might've given you credit for making a real point by now--they haven't.Are you accepting that you are wrong? The facts are right there.The player limped after two other limpers. His hand is offsuit, meaning the value of the second card is not likely to be useless. If it is KJ or K9, you have the worst hand. If it is KQ or KT, you can make a small profit... if the fourth player has a flush 0% of the time. Face it, the situation is a huge money loser. Imagine how fast Phil Hellmuth would fold it a

The player moved allin for 150 dollars. That is what she said. That is a 130 raise. I don't know why you didn't see that, but even if he would have raised 150, that would just make the numbers slightly different. If after she calls the pot is 550, her 36% share is $198, making the 150 call worth 198 in equity, for $48 profit.And once again, that is if none of the three players has a flush, or J9 with a club.And why does the guy keep saying 40%? Run it on poker probe or two dimes. It's 36% IF the player has Kc2d... but what if he has a more likely hand, say KcJh...Flop Tc8c7cJd9h 29,411 wi

Not sure why but this amuses me more than the ill fated logic. Something that is exactly $38 but not excatly give or take change....now is this the same EXACT logic you use to figure pot odds? That may be your problem. Just sayin....What part aren't you understanding? I rounded off the cents because I don't know if the rake at the Bike in that game would be $3, $4 or $5.You guys who learned how to write insulting words should have studied math and at least tried to learn what EV is. The math is right there. The expectation on the bet, under the defined circumstances, is right there, but

Not sure why but this amuses me more than the ill fated logic. Something that is exactly $38 but not excatly give or take change....now is this the same EXACT logic you use to figure pot odds? That may be your problem. Just sayin....Wgat part aren't you understanding? I rounded off the cents because I don't know if the rake at the Bike in that game would be $3, $4 or $5.You guys who learned how to write insulting words should have studies math and at least tried to learn what EV is. The math is right there. the expectation on the bet, under the defined circumstances, is right there, but

I can understand why you would make novice mistakes since you don't have a good grasp of the math, nor a willingness to learn it, but you should try.Even if you assume you read situations way above average, getting it right two out of three times would be awesome. But winning $38 twice while losing $130 once is bad poker. Lots of novices make the mistake of clinging to their hands and calling off their chips in situations that are marginal at best and totally horrible at worst. Then they complain and tell bad beat stories. Always calling off your chips with a hand that very likely could be

You don't understand the math even when its in front of you. I posted the exact pot, and her EXACT equity under the situation. $38. That is the exact number, give or take change.If she could see their cards, and if the forth player folded out of turn, calling the $130 earns her $38.Pot equity, EV, mathematical expectation, you should learn about these things if you want to become a better player.And just to repeat the obvious, in this situation in normal game's a players EV will be negative since one of the three opponents will have a flush or freeroll against her more than 0%===Just as a r