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Zach6668

Member Since 23 Feb 2006
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 02:29 PM
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#3762420 A H L Discussion

Posted bigguyren68 on 20 October 2017 - 04:50 PM

View Postdigitalmonkey, on 20 October 2017 - 03:38 PM, said:

Did you include the Lucky Bob Factor in your calculations?


Hmmmmm?I have only been helping Roy for 3 years

2015 2nd best +/- Big M swept by Gothic in Finals
2016 Best +/- Big M swept by Steelheads in Finals
2017 Best +/- Big M lost 4-1 to PkDealers in Semi-Finals.

I am not feeling this LuckyBob I keep hearing about.


#3762409 A H L Discussion

Posted bigguyren68 on 20 October 2017 - 03:14 PM

View Postserge, on 20 October 2017 - 02:48 PM, said:

my mind is a bit blown with the complexity of this problem. And I think it is essentially mathematical problem that can be easily solved..My initial feeling is that you are off your rocker and it makes no sense..However after reading your points it has some validity.

There are a lot of times we make lineup decisions based on various non mathematical situations. For example if I am playing against you we both have Washington goalies I will use the same ones as you to not have the game come down to goaltending..However if I feel that you have a better chance to beat me, then I will put another set of goalies in to increase the luck factor , meaning my chances to win.

In logic, the goalie situation should be based on which goalies are ranked to have a lower output..Regardless of who is the other teams goalies. Its sort of like a theory in Poker that was dubbed the "Kill Phil theory"..Essentially if you overplay your hands pre flop against better opponents, it makes it harder for your opponents to use skill against you. While its not the best mathematical play, its the best strategy against tougher and better opponents.

Mathematical edges are sometimes mixed up with psycological paradoxes. We may believe that its great to have players that play in the West Coast because it gives you a better chance to come back and win more games late. Mathematically it makes no sense whats so ever. However when I m playing DraftKings for a $1 I may do this to increase my fun factor.

Best way to prove/disprove a theory is usually to give an extreme example.


Assuming your opponent had 1 forward and 5 empty forward spots, 4 empty defense spots, and empty goalies.

For example John Gaudreau and nothing else.


And your choices of forward players are

Crosby
Stamkos
Ovechkin
Benn
Seguin
Mcdavid

and
Monahan.

Even if you though Monahan was the worst of the 7 forwards, having him and any 5 others reduces chance of losing game to Gaudreau only from 0.1% to 0.0001%.

Even though your average score from them reduces from 4.332 to 4.127, you increase chance of a win.

Now that being said, I agree, play your lineup based on regular AHL games.

Champions/Survivor games are just a fun bonus.


#3762407 A H L Discussion

Posted serge on 20 October 2017 - 02:48 PM

View Postdigitalmonkey, on 20 October 2017 - 02:06 PM, said:

Where you're wrong is your belief that I need to score the most points possible. I only need to score more points than my opponent.

my mind is a bit blown with the complexity of this problem. And I think it is essentially mathematical problem that can be easily solved..My initial feeling is that you are off your rocker and it makes no sense..However after reading your points it has some validity.

There are a lot of times we make lineup decisions based on various non mathematical situations. For example if I am playing against you we both have Washington goalies I will use the same ones as you to not have the game come down to goaltending..However if I feel that you have a better chance to beat me, then I will put another set of goalies in to increase the luck factor , meaning my chances to win.

In logic, the goalie situation should be based on which goalies are ranked to have a lower output..Regardless of who is the other teams goalies. Its sort of like a theory in Poker that was dubbed the "Kill Phil theory"..Essentially if you overplay your hands pre flop against better opponents, it makes it harder for your opponents to use skill against you. While its not the best mathematical play, its the best strategy against tougher and better opponents.

Mathematical edges are sometimes mixed up with psycological paradoxes. We may believe that its great to have players that play in the West Coast because it gives you a better chance to come back and win more games late. Mathematically it makes no sense whats so ever. However when I m playing DraftKings for a $1 I may do this to increase my fun factor.


#3762263 Off Topic, Kinda.....

Posted MapleLeafpoker on 16 October 2017 - 07:32 PM

View Postgruven, on 16 October 2017 - 02:23 PM, said:

I've just resorted to calling everyone 'dipstick'. It's equally offensive to everyone. Just happy to do my part for racial unity.

My mechanic found that offensive.

edit: sorry, I meant Automotive Engineering Professional


#3762254 Off Topic, Kinda.....

Posted gruven on 16 October 2017 - 02:23 PM

I've just resorted to calling everyone 'dipstick'. It's equally offensive to everyone. Just happy to do my part for racial unity.


#3762181 A H L Discussion

Posted iBeaver on 13 October 2017 - 06:48 PM

I have Panik. You can grab him at the going rate.

2 1sts
Two prospects
$5 in cap


#3761982 Pittsburgh Penguins Thread

Posted digitalmonkey on 10 October 2017 - 01:19 PM

Awesome!

Penguins didn't present Trump with jersey during White House visit
https://www.thescore.com/news/1395234
(via http://thesco.re/theScore_app )


#3761935 Whalers

Posted MapleLeafpoker on 10 October 2017 - 07:39 AM

View PostZach6668, on 10 October 2017 - 07:36 AM, said:

Making a lopsided trade is the goal, isn't it? I mean, if you're on the right side of it.

Im not trying to make a lopsided trade, Im trying to make one that works for both of us. To him, Voracek+Weber were useless, just like 18-19 money is useless to Daniel, and anyone with a heartbeat is useless to Broadway.
I would rather not make a lopsided deal, and I truly hope Skjei does well for them. Why burn your partners in trades, Id rather we both win! I like the trades where one team is going for it, and the other isnt, it makes it so much easier to deal.


#3761931 Whalers

Posted MapleLeafpoker on 10 October 2017 - 07:31 AM

View Postdigitalmonkey, on 10 October 2017 - 07:00 AM, said:

This is probably the second most lopsided trade I've seen since I've been in the league.

Hows that Subban trade working out for you?
Was it $1 for Klefbom? Not so good?
Wheeler? Not him either?

Ok.


#3761929 Whalers

Posted MapleLeafpoker on 10 October 2017 - 07:27 AM

View PostUnderdog, on 10 October 2017 - 07:24 AM, said:

hey its just my opinion but ask yourself why you dont respond to anyone elses response
I dont respond to anyone elses response? What does that mean, I find it hard to understand you at times in these posts, sorry.

If you are upset about our trade talk, you asked me what I wanted for him.
I told you the players I liked.
You said you wouldnt trade those guys.
I told you I had other interest in Skjei, in deals I would rather make since they make more sense for me.
I told you that since you and I are both going after rentals and trying to win now, a Skjei deal would not make sense for us.
You said you would put in a counter offer. You never made one for Skjei, not one single offer over the course of days.
You then told me you had 3 different trades for D. I said good luck.

What did I do wrong?


#3761923 Whalers

Posted digitalmonkey on 10 October 2017 - 07:03 AM

Arvidsson and a 3rd for Grigorenko was the worst imo.


#3761303 A H L Discussion

Posted Untilted on 16 September 2017 - 05:52 PM

Im sure I f....d up the money calculation for my roster. That was the last thing I did and I did it really quick

Had a couple of buyouts and like 5 trades that involved 17/18 money


#3761282 A H L Discussion

Posted FCP Bob on 16 September 2017 - 01:29 PM

ok, hockey is offically on now. The Score App updated me that Stetcher has an assist.


#3761277 A H L Discussion

Posted MapleLeafpoker on 16 September 2017 - 01:00 PM

View Postbigguyren68, on 16 September 2017 - 06:06 AM, said:

Sad news in PkDealers land this year.
After 3 straight years of not doing it, this year we will have to dress the dreaded "empty" for the goalie position. The only perfect set involved Washington and neither Gothic or Mustangs would part with them.
Multiple 1st's, $6.00+ cash, top 2 farm guys, all offered but still denied.

Think of it as a night where your goalies gave up 5. Since you guys like Arizona so much this year, I imagine this won't be such a rare occurrence anyway. :)


#3761086 Degenerate Gambling

Posted Dubey on 08 September 2017 - 02:56 PM

my plan is to be out of money or top 5 at the halfway point