Bubble Decision

[jmbreslin 0]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)BB (t6205)UTG (t2145)Hero (t1555)SB (t3595)Preflop: Hero is Button with A, J. UTG raises to t600, Hero ???UTG was a fairly straightforward player but he had loosened up his raising requirements in the middle stage. Shortly after Level IV started (4-handed), he made a 3BB raise from the button w/ A7 and got caught.I don't think throwing away the AJ is an option, and any legit RR would leave me pot-comitted, so I'm torn between:1) Calling the raise and seeing what the flop brings. I'll have position postflop and if I have to throw away I'll still have 955 chips (desperate, but not dead); and2) Pushing and hoping that he throws away (if he was stealing) or that my AJ holds up.Thoughts? Is this a tough bubble decision, or is the fact that it's on the bubble making me think it is tougher than it is?

[Zach6668 513]

I don't think throwing away the AJ is an option, and any legit RR would leave me pot-comitted, so I'm torn between:1) Calling the raise and seeing what the flop brings. I'll have position postflop and if I have to throw away I'll still have 955 chips (desperate, but not dead); and2) Pushing and hoping that he throws away (if he was stealing) or that my AJ holds up.

#1 is not an option.

[jmbreslin 0]

#1 is not an option.

Could you elaborate a bit?

[Zach6668 513]

Could you elaborate a bit?

Heh, I was thinking I should have done that after posting originally.Basically, it's not smart to invest 40% of your stack, when your M is already less than 7, only to fold on a flop that you miss. Villain is going to be c-betting this flop like 90% of the time whether he hits or not, so having position is pretty useless here, imo, and don't forget, we're going to miss the flop 2/3rds of the time.You're FAR better off shoving preflop. If he folds, he folds, but most likely, he calls for 955 more and you're probably ahead or a coinflip. Sometimes he has AQ, AK, JJ-AA, and you're in trouble, but I'd say we're quite a bit ahead of his range.When I first posted, I thought the blinds were 100/200, but even at 75/150, 955 isn't enough of a stack to be comfortable on the bubble. Also, you aren't nearly deep enough for postflop play here in a raised pot. Your only move is call the c-bet or fold.

[mtdesmoines 2]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)BB (t6205)UTG (t2145)Hero (t1555)SB (t3595)Preflop: Hero is Button with A, J. UTG raises to t600, Hero ???UTG was a fairly straightforward player but he had loosened up his raising requirements in the middle stage. Shortly after Level IV started (4-handed), he made a 3BB raise from the button w/ A7 and got caught.I don't think throwing away the AJ is an option, and any legit RR would leave me pot-comitted, so I'm torn between:1) Calling the raise and seeing what the flop brings. I'll have position postflop and if I have to throw away I'll still have 955 chips (desperate, but not dead); and2) Pushing and hoping that he throws away (if he was stealing) or that my AJ holds up.Thoughts? Is this a tough bubble decision, or is the fact that it's on the bubble making me think it is tougher than it is?

Give up trying to outplay the bubble. Play your hand. If you think you're ahead, push. If you "sally-***" the bubble every time you get there, the bubble gonna eat you up over time. Just play straightforward on the bubble -- you'll be miles ahead over time.

[Acid_Knight 2]

This looks like a sng. The bubble of a sng is different from the bubble of a MTT becuase the prize money is right in front of you, but it's also not like you can make a ton more by hanging around since first place only gets 4.5 buyins.Zach is 100% right that calling is not an option with your chipstack. That leaves option 2, which is to push, which is what you should do here.

[jmbreslin 0]

This looks like a sng.

Yes, sorry, what I meant by "STT" was SnG.I'll wait and see if anyone has anything contrary to suggest before posting the results.

[Zach6668 513]

Yes, sorry, what I meant by "STT" was SnG.I'll wait and see if anyone has anything contrary to suggest before posting the results.

Na, I'm right./discussion:PBtw, to elaborate on what Acid mentioned, just so we're 100% clear, your goal in an SNG is to CASH first and foremost, while in an MTT, you're looking to win or final table, at least, and you're not so concerned about the bubble. Doesn't have much affect on this hand, but just wanted to be clear.

[simo_8ball 1]

It's closer than you'd think, but it's a shove.

[ramenandeggs 0]

Mucking it is more of an option than calling. Calling pf raise with vulnerable speculative hands as a short stack = bad poker. I'll probably push here.

[jmbreslin 0]

Okay, it seems pretty unanimous. Very glad to hear that my instincts were correct on this one.I pushed and he called. Flipped over QJ. Beautiful! Except that he flopped a Q and knocked me out on the bubble. Dammit! Anyway, I just wanted to confirm that it was bad luck rather than a bad decision on my part.