Battling Variance

[Yahkin 0]

March was a good month for me and I was cashing in over 60% of what I was playing in. Along comes April and things went to crap. I'm cashing in less than 15% and people seem to be sucking out on me an inordinant amount. I've reviewed my HH's and have fixed a few leaks...but these are leaks that I had in March too. Time and time again I see people making idiotic calls against me and catching the miracle river to bust me out. It's very frustrating because I should be steamrolling these donks, but they keep beating the odds.So, last night I decided to drop down a level so that my cold streak doesn't cost me too much money. (I generally played $5 SNG's, I dropped to $1 SNG's) Here's the problem. The play in these is so horrid that the best play almost seems to be to limp into every hand and just push every monster and hope for the best. Am I hurting myself by playing in these? Can I learn anything?And for the executives out there...here's a graph:

[SlackerInc 0]

I'm battling exactly the same issue, Yahkin! Was on a $5.50 roll which turned into a bust, so I dropped down. In addition to the problem you mentioned, I hate that the vig is twice as high (percentage-wise). I wish I just had a bigger bankroll so I could ride out the variance in the $5.50s.And like you, I'm torn between making strategy adjustments in the $1.20s (trapping more preflop, playing more drawing type hands if I can get the odds, devaluing AKos) and feeling that this is bad for my "real" game. Just last night, in one of the first couple hands there was a raise and reraise/push ahead of me--and I had TT. Easy muck against serious opposition; but I actually called and was up against something like K7os and Q3s, and tripled up. But I felt sheepish and kind of unclean, lol.

[tskillz187 0]

Play more like you were on March 23rd. Less like you are now. J/K.Honestly you need to post more hands and ask specifically about sit n go strategy. Maybe your run in March was a good run of variance and you aren;t playing as well as you thought you were. Or you might be on a bad downswing. Dropping down limits is always beneficial as long as you still take the game seriously. Stay with the basics and keep trying to plug leaks. Poker is just super frustrating sometimes, when you are winning it's easy and when you are losing feels like you can't do anything right.

[jmbreslin 0]

So, last night I decided to drop down a level so that my cold streak doesn't cost me too much money. Am I hurting myself by playing in these? Can I learn anything?

Is the point of dropping down to avoid losing too much money, or to learn something and improve your game? I'm assuming it's the former, in which case you just have to adjust your play to the lower quality opposition and build your confidence back up.I decided to start off playing at the $1.20's on Stars, partly because of bankroll and partly because I want to work my way up through the ranks. When I first started playing I quickly realized that a decent portion of what I had learned/read about SnG strategy actually didn't apply at this level because most players don't play the way they're "supposed" to play. I found myself wondering if it would be better for me to make a quick jump to the $3 or $5 level where the play is better quality, but instead I decided to focus on adjusting to the $1.20 quality play and becoming more confident at this level before moving up and learning to adjust to the next level.Anyway, my point is if you're going to drop down to this level, you have to swallow your pride and learn to play against that kind of opposition rather than playing your $5 game at the $1.20 tables.

[Yahkin 0]

What the graph doesn't show is the 1000FPP Main event qualifier I entered in the middle of all of that. The level of play in that was much better and consequently I did a lot better. Took 4th out of over 400.As for playing like I did in March...well, there may be something to that. The last week in March I went on a cruise. I took with me HOH 1 and 2, and spent several hours studying them. I feel it improved my game significantly, but now I seem to have more trouble in the micros. Very frustrating.

[pokerfan1080 0]

I've been on the exact same roller coaster as you, Yahkin. Constantly being coolered and running into bad beats is very difficult to deal with. I went on a really bad run of losing sessions in SnG's and cash games. I believe my record is losing with AA 7 times consecutively in the run of about 2 weeks, it was absolutely sickening to experience. Add to that the donks out-drawing my two pair, sets, boats, etc, and it's just adding insult to injury.I've been trying to do my best to fight variance by dropping down a level as well. That didn't go so good for the same reasons you stated above. Sometimes, playing well just isn't enough, the luck factor is just too overwhelming now and then.One other adjustment I've made is to move from 6 handed cash games to full ring and play really tight aggressive poker. It's boring as hell but it has worked out well so far.Good luck and I hope things start to improve soon.

[simo_8ball 1]

If it makes you feel any better, I'm running just fine. Making money in PLO, NLHE, 7Stud, MTTs, STTs and random prop bets. It's all good. Just wish I had more time to play.

[tripdeuces 0]

Yahkin, dips like that in your graph leans more towards leaks than variance. Over almost 1800 games i haven't had a dip so big ( slight brag obv). I suggest not only being critical and analyzing play but try and recognize what your mood is when you play these. It's not hard to get over the hump all you need is a Bubble domination strategy.

[Yahkin 0]

Yahkin, dips like that in your graph leans more towards leaks than variance. Over almost 1800 games i haven't had a dip so big ( slight brag obv). I suggest not only being critical and analyzing play but try and recognize what your mood is when you play these. It's not hard to get over the hump all you need is a Bubble domination strategy.

I am very critical of myself, but this stuff is crazy. It's not like I'm losing coin flips. I am generally way ahead when the cards are flipped.I played in 5 SNG's yesterday. I know you don't have full details on the situation for all of these hands, but the fact still remains that I am way ahead when the money gets in.My bustout hands were as follows:Game 1KK v. 33 All in PF. Villain turns a 3. Finish 24/180 - 18 paidGame 2KK v. short stack A4o all in PF. Villain flops the ace.Flopped set of Jacks v. TPTK all in on the flop. Villain runner runner flushes. Chip leader to out in 2 hands with 4 left and 3 get paid.EDIT: He had AKo and caught a K on the flop...so him getting all his chips in the middle was not out of line.Game 3AA v. QJs All in PF. Rivers the flush. 36/180 His call was for 2/3 of his stack.Game 499 - Flop comes 572 rainbow. A pot size bet puts me all in and villain calls with A10. He rivers the 10. (He had only 300 left behind so he put his whole tourney on the line with this hand.)Game 574o in the BB. Flop comes 742 rainbow. I raise, villain reraises and I push. He flips over A2. Rivers another 2 to hit trips.Yahkin throws laptop against the wall and kicks the neighbors dog.At the second break of Game 1, I chuckled to myself that I should just fold to the money with my 10k chips...to avoid busting out to some crazy turn of events. Apparently that was my best read of the game and I should have stuck with it.

[Zach6668 513]

If you want to hear stories about SNG futility, and busting out when you get the money in good endlessly, look up IQCrash and ask him about turbo SNGs, lol.

[RISEorFall 0]

I believe my record is losing with AA 7 times consecutively in the run of about 2 weeks,

that's baby games. I lost with AA 8 times in one night. KK 3 times that night, QQ once and JJ twice

[SlackerInc 0]

Yahkin throws laptop against the wall and kicks the neighbors dog.

Wow, dude...that is rough stuff. Sorry to hear it.I myself built up my bankroll a little bit with the $1.20 SNGs and so just a bit ago decided to try going back up for a $5.50 (thinking if I lost my buyin I'd drop back down). I'm currently first out of 17 left (started with 27), 1000 ahead of the next biggest stack. Which of course means...oh, and just as I type "I'll soon collapse" I'm down to 4th stack after a couple fast hands...oh, but AA got me back up a bit...oh, and my paired ace loses to a set of queens...jeez, a bunch of big hands in a row. Well, we'll see how it goes.

[SlackerInc 0]

...and, sure enough: from first of 17 to out in 13th place. uggggghhhhhhhh....!!!

[armen13 0]

my 2 cents:Do not go down to 1$ sng's. It will tilt you and it will damage your game. While in principal, going down is a good idea, there are limits to this. I think the negatives here outweigh the positives...I've been on this bankroll rollercoaster this year and I have been giving this a lot of thought. Not knowing your specific situation here are some general reccomendations (I did look you up on sharkscope):Do not play the 5$ 5 table sng's until you feel you have your confidence back. The variance in this game is quite large and level of play is surprisingly low (lower than single table 5$ sngs). If you do, bluff less, and when you make a hand bet large (you will get called).If you are multitabling, don't. If you have distractions around, then make sure you are focused on the game. I know you have heard all of this before...When you're running bad you want to reduce your variance. The bigger the field the bigger the variance, so sng's are ideal. You may also want to try other formats and other games. For example games like omaha and horse etc. (if you know how to play them). Sometimes a break in the routine is all it takes. Also consider turbo sng's (turbos require a very different strategy and way of playing, so read up on it before trying them). Anyway good luck hope this turns around soon.

[SlackerInc 0]

Hey Yahkin, this is admittedly kind of a brag post, but it's also a "hang in there!" post. As I said, I was going through the same frustration as you. Then at midnight, totally on a lark, I just decided to sort of randomly enter a $3.30 MTT, a type I normally never mess with. Six hours later:-----PokerStars Tournament #49446920, No Limit Hold'emBuy-In: $3.00/$0.30913 playersTotal Prize Pool: $2739.00 Tournament started - 2007/05/08 - 01:00:00 (ET)Dear SlackerInc1, You finished the tournament in 1st place.A $554.65 award has been credited to your Real Money account.-----Bankroll, baby! And in the middle stages of this, I took a big hit to my stack when I got into a preflop raising contest--that turned into a push on villain's part--when I held AA. (Villain turned over A9os and rivered a straight.)

[Yahkin 0]

GRATS!!!! Slacker is covering everyone's strat tourney buyin this week!!! :)A strange thing happened to me last night. I played in one SNG (Went and saw Spidey, so not much time to play.)My best cards held, I folded those pocket 9's when the betting seemed odd, and all of my reads hit the mark.Dear Yahkin, You finished the tournament in 2nd place.A $13.50 award has been credited to your Real Money account.Started headsup behind 3k to 9k. First hand I'm dealt AA and double up. Back and forth for a bit and then I flop two pair. My raise is called, and the turn puts 3 to a flush on the board. He was drawing to the nuts and hit. Oh well, nothing out of line there. We both played it right and I walked away happy.The biggest confidence boost came via chat though from my HU opponent. Shortly after it began he said he knew early on that it would be him and I headsup. Thanks man, you don't know how much I needed to hear that.

Hey Yahkin, this is admittedly kind of a brag post, but it's also a "hang in there!" post. As I said, I was going through the same frustration as you. Then at midnight, totally on a lark, I just decided to sort of randomly enter a $3.30 MTT, a type I normally never mess with. Six hours later:-----PokerStars Tournament #49446920, No Limit Hold'emBuy-In: $3.00/$0.30913 playersTotal Prize Pool: $2739.00 Tournament started - 2007/05/08 - 01:00:00 (ET)Dear SlackerInc1, You finished the tournament in 1st place.A $554.65 award has been credited to your Real Money account.-----Bankroll, baby! And in the middle stages of this, I took a big hit to my stack when I got into a preflop raising contest--that turned into a push on villain's part--when I held AA. (Villain turned over A9os and rivered a straight.)

[Yahkin 0]

(I did look you up on sharkscope):

I was pretty proud of my sharkscope numbers until this run happened. I didn't have the shark symbol, but both my Full Tilt and Pokerstars numbers looked great. ROI >10%, a tidy profit, etc, etc. Now they both look like crap. They'll be back.

[SlackerInc 0]

The biggest confidence boost came via chat though from my HU opponent. Shortly after it began he said he knew early on that it would be him and I headsup. Thanks man, you don't know how much I needed to hear that.

Right on. Sounds like you might be turning a corner. In any event, I've witnessed your play several times, and I would definitely describe you as a good player.

[Yahkin 0]

Right on. Sounds like you might be turning a corner. In any event, I've witnessed your play several times, and I would definitely describe you as a good player.

*blush*Thank you.

[Zach6668 513]

I didn't have the shark symbol...

You mean this one?

[simo_8ball 1]

You mean this one?

[Zach6668 513]

Good to see we both have huge sample sizes to draw from.

[antistuff 0]

What the graph doesn't show is the 1000FPP Main event qualifier I entered in the middle of all of that. The level of play in that was much better and consequently I did a lot better. Took 4th out of over 400.

come again?

[Zach6668 513]

come again?

Good catch, not sure how I missed it, lol.

[Yahkin 0]

come again?

Meaning I use a lot of multi-level thinking assuming that my opponents have a clue what is going on. In a higher buyin such as this, that actually works. In the micros, going beyond level 2 thinking just gets me in trouble. I'm pretty much forced to win showdowns in the large majority of the micros I play in. In this tourney I was not and could play smallball all night long.