47 replies to this topic

[timwakefield]

Villain is new to the table, no real reads.


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $170.65
UTG+1: $160.70
MP1: $130.80
MP2: $130.65
MP3: $104.15
CO: $33.05
Button: $227.90
SB: $53
BB: $65.10

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $3, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: Q A K ($16.5, 5 players)
Hero bets $10, MP1 folds, MP3 raises to $28, 2 folds


Push?

[Acid_Knight]

I push. He's probably got 2 pair here.

[KentuckySlim]

Villain is new to the table, no real reads.
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $170.65
UTG+1: $160.70
MP1: $130.80
MP2: $130.65
MP3: $104.15
CO: $33.05
Button: $227.90
SB: $53
BB: $65.10

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $3, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: Q A K ($16.5, 5 players)
Hero bets $10, MP1 folds, MP3 raises to $28, 2 folds
Push?

I would say this is a good opportunity to call and let him hang himself on the turn. I SERIOUSLY doubt J-10 here, as he'd probably smooth call it. The best he could be against you is drawing to a runner runner flush, gutterball, quads (highly unlikely as he would've repopped preflop), or perfect perfect for quads with AQ/AK/KQ. Shove isn't a bad play, but I really don't want to scare him off his hand at this point. And if he does have J-10, that just sucks, but at least you have redraws.

[tripdeuces]

Well villain has half his stack in after his flop raise. I would think either the flat call or push is good just because he is probably going to feel committed either way depending on the player.

[mtdesmoines]

Villain is new to the table, no real reads.
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $170.65
UTG+1: $160.70
MP1: $130.80
MP2: $130.65
MP3: $104.15
CO: $33.05
Button: $227.90
SB: $53
BB: $65.10

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $3, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: Q A K ($16.5, 5 players)
Hero bets $10, MP1 folds, MP3 raises to $28, 2 folds
Push?

Yeah. He's following.

[Ricer98]

I don't think I like pushing here cause we're only getting called if were beat most of the time. Maybe we get calls from KK or QQ but give the preflop action I'd couldn't put anyone on one of those two hands. A lot of two pair hands might put in a raise like this to see where they stand, but do they really call a push. We raised under the gun, bet the flop into 4 other players, then reraised all in on that coordinated of a board. You don't like money if you call with two pair in that spot. Someone mentioned why would J10 not just smooth call. Couple different reasons I can think of there. As long as they've been playing fairly tight giving and under the gun raiser credit for a set or even two pair on that board isn't very hard. As quite a few others have posted in reply, we couldn't put him on exactly J10 very easily. Also with two players to act behind he wouldn't want top pair with a gutter coming along then choping the pot.

Calling here and playing as small a pot as possible is all you can do here, unless the board pairs of course. If we're behind we lose the minimum, and if we're ahead we probably get the most value by letting the villian do the betting. I'd be very leary about calling a large turn bet though simply because anyone why got called on that board without the nuts has got to be worried about your hand. On top of that J10 probably makes around a pot sized lead, giving you credit for atleast two pair, and making you pay the max to draw to a boat.

[timwakefield]

Calling here and playing as small a pot as possible is all you can do here, unless the board pairs of course. If we're behind we lose the minimum, and if we're ahead we probably get the most value by letting the villian do the betting. I'd be very leary about calling a large turn bet though simply because anyone why got called on that board without the nuts has got to be worried about your hand. On top of that J10 probably makes around a pot sized lead, giving you credit for atleast two pair, and making you pay the max to draw to a boat.

So you're suggesting a call and then a check/fold to a pot-size bet if we're unimproved?

[Zach6668]

I would say this is a good opportunity to call and let him hang himself on the turn. I SERIOUSLY doubt J-10 here, as he'd probably smooth call it. The best he could be against you is drawing to a runner runner flush, gutterball, quads (highly unlikely as he would've repopped preflop), or perfect perfect for quads with AQ/AK/KQ. Shove isn't a bad play, but I really don't want to scare him off his hand at this point. And if he does have J-10, that just sucks, but at least you have redraws.

I kinda like this line, does anyone disagree?

[Sefaje]

Yes zach, i like that line also. a smooth call sorta looks like AT-AK slowing down trying to keep the pot small. A turn c/r will be real, real sexy if it works since villain will be committed. That's assuming he doesn't just shove himself since he's left with almost exactly a PSB in his stack.

I don't think there's too many hands you could lose value from by allowing a turn card. The flop is good and rainbowed and most turns will be absolutely harmless. If you take out the AAAKQ, then (all cards lower than ten) 36/47 remaining cards are very non-scary. and not all of the 11 remaining cards will scare off weaker hands, some of them might give two pair a boat, etc.


AA on a AKQ board is like middle set. If someone has the exact two card hand that beats you, 100BB isnt enough to find out and still correctly fold. I'm getting the money in 100000% of the time on this hand (assuming we dont just call behind and the turn is a ten, then sometimes i may not.) Especially since even if we are behind, a board pair saves us 34% from the flop and 23% after the turn. its not even close as to whether we want to get money in, and i think a call on the flop and check/allin on the turn is Delicious

[David_Nicoson]

AA on a AKQ board is like middle set. If someone has the exact two card hand that beats you, 100BB isnt enough to find out and still correctly fold.

It's kinda like that, but there are only 3 combinations that make top set compared to 16 combinations that make JT. On the other hand, we're drawing pretty live against broadway with top set as compared to nearly dead with set under set.

[NEtwowilldo]

I don't think I like pushing here cause we're only getting called if were beat most of the time.

WHAT!?!? Seriously?

I like calling then quickly checking, to look weak, draw a bet from our opponent, then he is potstuck. I think we are representing A J by taking that line.

Pushing ain't so bad either though.

[Ricer98]

So you're suggesting a call and then a check/fold to a pot-size bet if we're unimproved?

Unless were talking agro donk what does bet pot on that turn that we beat. Put you self in villians spot. Lets say you flopped anything other than the straight. you raise that flop then fire big on the turn with out the nuts in this spot. I sure don't. Heres how I anaylze this hand from the villians seat. Unless I've got a read you raise garbage from under the gun, that flop hits every hand that gets raised from that position. You "contiunation bet" into 4 players, I raise, then you call . Whats your range to call there, a set or AK, anything else is a horrible call in my opinion. So if unless I've seen you get out of line quite a bit, i'm checking anydraw any two pair, and probably most sets on the turn to keep the pot small. On the other hand say I've got J10. If you've got top two or a set, odds are your calling to river trying to fill up. So I want to charge the max and make a close to pot sized bet on the turn. This bet should shut out anyone drawing to the gutter and I either take down a decient pot which I'm okay with. Or, I've got a player with a very obvious hand who is a 3.4-1 underdog and only getting 2-1 pot odds. Guess what, on top of that he doesn't get another dime if the board pairs. AK won't be betting out if the Q pairs, likewise KQ if the A pairs, if they do good play. So any card that pairs the board and I get lead into they obviously filled up. Board pairs, they check, I check. Board doesn't pair I shove and probably get paid off.

I don't see any reason to play a big pot here out of position. Any decient player knows our range of hands, but will they really be able to bluff us off it without a hand them selves? At this level I highely doubt it. Calling a big bet on the turn only leads to calling to the river merely on pot odds alone.

[Zach6668]

Check/folding the 2nd nuts because of ONE raise and a follow up bet is laughable.

[NEtwowilldo]

Any decient player knows our range of hands

Any decent player knowing our range of hands wouldn't call an EP raise with J 10.

There are waaaayyyyy too many hands the villain could have called our raise with, then raised with on the flop, to just assume he has the nuts, when he could easily be drawing dead.

If you decide to shove, or slowplay, you should be doing it with the intention of getting the most money into the pot with a freaking set of aces. Those don't come around too often you know.

[David_Nicoson]

Any decent player knowing our range of hands wouldn't call an EP raise with J 10.

I'd call with JTs if I'm the villain.

[Ricer98]

WHAT!?!? Seriously?

I like calling then quickly checking, to look weak, draw a bet from our opponent, then he is potstuck. I think we are representing A J by taking that line.

Pushing ain't so bad either though.

What do you call with in villian's spot? Maybe KK or QQ? Well you would have reraised them preflop 90% of the time. So odds are you don't have any of those hands. AK? We know 3 aces are dead so odds of this are slim there as well. KQ? Horrible play to raise, even worse to call off 100bb on that board. J10s? Preflop after a raise and a call, yup that definetly gets played. Raises the flop? You betcha.

If we push and get called we're behind more than ahead.

The more I think about it I just like checking this flop. I know this is gonna get some more "WHAT" and "SERIOUS" remarks as plays like this have in other threads. Thats just how I play. I don't play big pots with a lot opponents out of position. I"ve got 3 bucks invested on this flop, which is about as bad as it gets for top set. The only way to make it worse would be to add a flush draw. I may or may not call a bet after I check it would depend on player betting, my feel for the table, ect.

That being said, the way it was played I don't think we have enought information to fold, YET. A big bet on the turn, thats enough info to tell me I'm beat.

[NEtwowilldo]

Just because three aces are dead, doesn't mean it's impossible for him to have aces up here. KQ some people would probably raise. I think J 10 would probably smooth call, especially on a rainbow flop. And all of your references were assuming that the villain was a good player who knows our range. Calling an EP raise with J 10 is not a good player who knows our range.

I think his range is far wider than J 10 to just give up.

Folding is just too weak tight here.


Somebody run this through pokerstove for me.

[David_Nicoson]

That being said, the way it was played I don't think we have enought information to fold, YET. A big bet on the turn, thats enough info to tell me I'm beat.

If he pushes the turn, his bet is 104.15 - (3 + 28) = 73.15. The final pot if we call is 16.50 + (28 x 2) + (73.15 x 2) = 218.

If we're behind to broadway on the turn, we win the pot 22.7%. We're trading $73.15 for 22.7% of a $218 pot or an equity of $49.50. The EV of the call is -$23.65.

If we're really ahead with the villain drawing dead or nearly so and we fold incorrectly, we lose $145.65.

If we fold here, we're saying that we believe the villain has JT more than 86% of the time. In other words, he has JT six times as often as all the other hands combined.

[Ricer98]

Just because three aces are dead, doesn't mean it's impossible for him to have aces up here. KQ some people would probably raise. I think J 10 would probably smooth call, especially on a rainbow flop. And all of your references were assuming that the villain was a good player who knows our range. Calling an EP raise with J 10 is not a good player who knows our range.

I think his range is far wider than J 10 to just give up.

Folding is just too weak tight here.
Somebody run this through pokerstove for me.

This hand is the exact example why a good player plays J10s with a raise and a call. Just the raise I think its marginal, but with a call in the middle I play that all day long. I know UTG has one of 5 or 6 hands, he has no clue what I hold. If I flop top two or a straight, people don't fold big pairs, I take his stack. Implied odds 101.


Either way I hate pushing that flop. Let him bet it on the turn then call or raise is much better. We lose equity from hands that we beat, and get called when we're behind.

[Ricer98]

If he pushes the turn, his bet is 104.15 - (3 + 28) = 73.15. The final pot if we call is 16.50 + (28 x 2) + (73.15 x 2) = 218.

If we're behind to broadway on the turn, we win the pot 22.7%. We're trading $73.15 for 22.7% of a $218 pot or an equity of $49.50. The EV of the call is -$23.65.

If we're really ahead with the villain drawing dead or nearly so and we fold incorrectly, we lose $145.65.

If we fold here, we're saying that we believe the villain has JT more than 86% of the time. In other words, he has JT six times as often as all the other hands combined.

I realize we're way ahead of every thing but J10 here. Tell me how many people in the villans shoes push in that turn without the straight after our flop bet was called? I think if the money goes into the pot on turn 75% of the time we're against the straight, 25% we get a really bad call.