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Another Bad Preflop Move By Me


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#1 SpiderGuard

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Posted 19 April 2007 - 06:58 PM

So I was steaming a little from not getting any action on a couple premium hands before, so I felt like making a raise with a crappy hand like K9 suited was a good idea. I'm fully aware that it's not, so let's skip the preflop play wink.gif

What do I do when villain pushes? I feel like I'm probably ahead and want to call, but even if opponent has the straight I have outs.

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1275
UTG+1: t1555
Hero: t1720
MP2: t2130
CO: t1540
Button: t1385
SB: t1375
BB: t2520

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP1 with K icon_suit_spade.gif 9 icon_suit_spade.gif
2 folds, Hero raises to t105, 2 folds, Button calls t105 (pot was t150), SB calls t90 (pot was t255), BB folds.

Flop: 4 icon_suit_spade.gif 9 icon_suit_heart.gif Q icon_suit_spade.gif (t345, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t205, Button calls t205 (pot was t550), SB calls t205 (pot was t755).

Turn: K icon_suit_club.gif (t960, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t375, Button raises all-in t1075, SB folds, Hero ?????.

#2 NEtwowilldo

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Posted 19 April 2007 - 07:20 PM

assuming you are beat, you have thirteen outs once, making you a 3 to 1 dog. You are getting 1760 to 700, which is not the right price. So if you think you are beat, it's a fold. But you would have to be about 80% or so sure he has the straight.

It's marginal. I'd probably call even though I know I'm beat because I am a POW.
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#3 Jdr999

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Posted 19 April 2007 - 07:22 PM

Call turn. I'm not folding 2P and flush draw here.
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#4 mjd

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Posted 19 April 2007 - 08:39 PM

When I read the HH, I assumed you weak-lead the turn to induce action. Is that not the case?
If we're really considering folding this to the raise, I think we need to decide on a villain range. Any reads?

#5 SpiderGuard

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Posted 19 April 2007 - 08:50 PM

QUOTE (mjd @ Thursday, April 19th, 2007, 9:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
When I read the HH, I assumed you weak-lead the turn to induce action. Is that not the case?
If we're really considering folding this to the raise, I think we need to decide on a villain range. Any reads?


We're only at level 2, so I have no read.

The turn bet was trying to build the pot and hoping to maybe keep both of them around.

#6 GrinderMJ

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Posted 20 April 2007 - 12:16 AM

Preflop is poor, but not terrible........you are probably up against the nuts here a lot but I think you have to call

#7 simo_8ball

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Posted 20 April 2007 - 03:42 AM

QUOTE (GrinderMJ @ Friday, April 20th, 2007, 9:16 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Preflop is poor, but not terrible........you are probably up against the nuts here a lot but I think you have to call

QFT

The problem I have with preflop is the size of the raise. Make it 80 and you keep the pot smaller postflop and easier to manage.

#8 copernicus

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Posted 20 April 2007 - 04:25 AM

I wouldnt count on 13 outs here. A lot of hands that raise have their own Ks and 9s. Hands that beat you are KQ(6), 99(1), KK(1), JT(16), QQ(3) and you beat AK(8). You may also be ahead of some A high flush draws but Id discount those pretty heavily.

So unless he is semibluffing, you should be folding.
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#9 simo_8ball

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Posted 20 April 2007 - 04:35 AM

700 into 2410 = 3.44:1

You need 22.5% equity.

equity = outs / cards in deck
equity x cards in deck = outs
0.225 x 46 = 10.35 outs.

We have >=11 outs against:

KQ
99
JT
QQ.

I call.

#10 copernicus

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Posted 20 April 2007 - 08:56 AM

QUOTE (simo_8ball @ Friday, April 20th, 2007, 8:35 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
700 into 2410 = 3.44:1

You need 22.5% equity.

equity = outs / cards in deck
equity x cards in deck = outs
0.225 x 46 = 10.35 outs.

We have >=11 outs against:

KQ
99
JT
QQ.

I call.


Much too narrow an equity advantage for early in a SnG. TAG and dont chase early. The aggression was met on the flop and reversed on the turn. Chasing these kinds of hands will kill your ROI, at least in $33+ SnGs, and lower ones where you dont get a lot of dead money (eg non-prime playing hours)
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#11 tskillz187

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Posted 20 April 2007 - 01:04 PM

Read no responses.

Turn bet sucks, bet more. And then call the all in and hope he flopped top 2 or something. Your hand is pretty strong here and you can't let go of it. You are inviting a raise on the turn with the weak bet.
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