Hi, Just read Dan N's chapter in SS2 on Triple draw and just would like to know how to calculate the odds of catching draws etc (a quick method for the table and a long version so I know how it works) so I can compare pot odds to te chances of drawing out etc.Also reading the chapter Dan doesn't really talk about pot odds when making decisions- is 2-7 not so much a pot odd game?Thanks for any help

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# Maths Behind 2-7 Triple Draw

Started by medleyoz, Apr 15 2007 06:18 PM

4 replies to this topic

### #1

Posted 15 April 2007 - 06:18 PM

### #2

Posted 20 April 2007 - 07:33 AM

medleyoz, on Sunday, April 15th, 2007, 6:18 PM, said:

Hi, Just read Dan N's chapter in SS2 on Triple draw and just would like to know how to calculate the odds of catching draws etc (a quick method for the table and a long version so I know how it works) so I can compare pot odds to te chances of drawing out etc.Also reading the chapter Dan doesn't really talk about pot odds when making decisions- is 2-7 not so much a pot odd game?Thanks for any help

**So with a smooth 2 card 7 draw you have a 21.6% chance to improve to a 7 and a 21.6% chance to improve to an 8.**In comparison, hitting a one card 8 draw is simply:1 - (35/47)(34/46)(33/45) = 0.59636139

**With a one card 8 draw you have a 59.6% chance to improve to an 8.**What about a one card smooth 7 draw?1st draw:make 7: 8/47 = 0.17021277make 8: 4/47 = 0.08510638still drawing: 35/47 = 0.744680852nd draw:make 7: (35/47)(8/46) = 0.1295097make 8: (35/47)(4/46) = 0.0647549still drawing: (35/47)(34/46) = 0.550416283rd draw:make 7: (35/47)(34/46)(8/45) = 0.09785178make 8: (35/47)(34/46)(4/45) = 0.04892589fail to improve: (35/47)(34/46)(33/45) = 0.4036386

**With a smooth one card 7 draw you have a 39.8% chance of making a 7 and a 19.9% chance of making an 8.**This reaffirms how strong this draw is.As far as pot odds go...you should pay attention to them obviously. But its more about good predraw selection and taking advantage of position. In a loose low limit game, if you raise your good hands predraw the pot will be bloated enough where quite a few one card draws are chasable. If you are drawing 1, and you are certain that the bettor is standing pat, you probably shouldnt call if you aren't getting 3 to 1 or better on the last draw. Rarely draw 2 on 3rd street (if ever)...the only way this can ever be an okay call is if you KNOW your opponent is drawing still...AND the pot is fairly large.

### #3

Posted 03 May 2007 - 06:39 PM

Thanks for that. EXCELLENT POST.

### #4

Posted 16 January 2008 - 08:42 AM

wonderful post!thanks

### #5

Posted 22 January 2008 - 02:56 PM

great post indeed! i also wanned to know more about the math of 2-7

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