Whats The Best Play Here?

[Roberts2003 0]

Alright I am playing this guy heads up at 1 2 NL, heres the handFull Tilt Poker Game #2190156774: Table Long (heads up) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:24:30 ET - 2007/04/11Seat 1: bulldawg ($156)Seat 2: IHaveAStrong9 ($241.70)IHaveAStrong9 posts the small blind of $1bulldawg posts the big blind of $2The button is in seat #2*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to IHaveAStrong9 [5c 8s]IHaveAStrong9 raises to $6bulldawg calls $4*** FLOP *** [6d 9s 7c]bulldawg checksIHaveAStrong9 bets $7bulldawg calls $7*** TURN *** [6d 9s 7c] [9c]bulldawg checksIHaveAStrong9 bets $15bulldawg raises to $30IHaveAStrong9 has 15 seconds left to actIHaveAStrong9 raises to $94bulldawg raises to $143, and is all inIHaveAStrong9 calls $49I am going to post the river and results later, heres the main question that I have that applies to more then this single hand. My read on this guy was that he had trip 9s and possibly a straight draw, so 98 or 910. I was at least 95% sure of this, because the flow of the match was that he would almost always check raise me on the flop with a set or two pair. And I did not think he was a good enough player to fastplay a boat on the turn. Alright, now heres the dilemna. Since I put him on 98 or 910, he has quite a large number of outs to either chop or fill up on the river. If the hand is 98, then he has 10 outs, and if its 910, he has 13 outs. So I am either a 4 to 1 favorite or a 3 to 1 favorite. Since I have position here, is the best play to get all in with 75% to 80% equity, or to wait until the river to make sure he doesnt fill up?? This kind of thinking is strictly variance reduction, and it applies in many hands other this hand.

[Royal_Tour 0]

The best play is posting this in the strat section.oh snap

[nutzbuster 7]

Shove flop.that is all

[no not baxter 0]

blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

who cares?

[ramenandeggs 0]

The best play is posting this in the strat section.oh snap

[pokerinc 0]

villian's shown a lot of interest, may as well push the edge, if a scare card comes making four to the straight or the backdoor flush he may slow down. Go w/ it while you're good.

[RichieValenz 0]

The best play is posting this in the strat section.oh snap

and converting the hand

[no not baxter 0]

lol u played that hand pretty bad

[Zach6668 513]

Post in the right forum, and convert your hands.Didn't you get the memo last time?

[No_Neck 0]

If you would like to reduce your variance don't play heads up...

[mtdesmoines 2]

Alright I am playing this guy heads up at 1 2 NL, heres the handFull Tilt Poker Game #2190156774: Table Long (heads up) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:24:30 ET - 2007/04/11Seat 1: bulldawg ($156)Seat 2: IHaveAStrong9 ($241.70)IHaveAStrong9 posts the small blind of $1bulldawg posts the big blind of $2The button is in seat #2*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to IHaveAStrong9 [5c 8s]IHaveAStrong9 raises to $6bulldawg calls $4*** FLOP *** [6d 9s 7c]bulldawg checksIHaveAStrong9 bets $7bulldawg calls $7*** TURN *** [6d 9s 7c] [9c]bulldawg checksIHaveAStrong9 bets $15bulldawg raises to $30IHaveAStrong9 has 15 seconds left to actIHaveAStrong9 raises to $94bulldawg raises to $143, and is all inIHaveAStrong9 calls $49I am going to post the river and results later, heres the main question that I have that applies to more then this single hand. My read on this guy was that he had trip 9s and possibly a straight draw, so 98 or 910. I was at least 95% sure of this, because the flow of the match was that he would almost always check raise me on the flop with a set or two pair. And I did not think he was a good enough player to fastplay a boat on the turn. Alright, now heres the dilemna. Since I put him on 98 or 910, he has quite a large number of outs to either chop or fill up on the river. If the hand is 98, then he has 10 outs, and if its 910, he has 13 outs. So I am either a 4 to 1 favorite or a 3 to 1 favorite. Since I have position here, is the best play to get all in with 75% to 80% equity, or to wait until the river to make sure he doesnt fill up?? This kind of thinking is strictly variance reduction, and it applies in many hands other this hand.

I don't like pushing hard into a paired board holding the sucker straight. Take what the poker gods give you here rather than give up your stack.

[cMcMonkey 0]

This kind of thinking is strictly variance reduction, and it applies in many hands other this hand.

And from a strictly theoretical POV, it is incorrect thinking. You want to push your edges while you have them, reducing variance also reduces EV. If you are in a tourney situation or where you have only 1 buy-in and can't afford to go broke then it might make sense (although the cynic says: why are you playing out of your BR/comfort zone with only 1 buy-in?). That said A) I think 95% is too high a confidence rate for a specific hand in most situations and B) you're opening yourself up to be bluffed off the pot when a scary river hits.

[Roberts2003 0]

And from a strictly theoretical POV, it is incorrect thinking. You want to push your edges while you have them, reducing variance also reduces EV. If you are in a tourney situation or where you have only 1 buy-in and can't afford to go broke then it might make sense (although the cynic says: why are you playing out of your BR/comfort zone with only 1 buy-in?). That said A) I think 95% is too high a confidence rate for a specific hand in most situations and B) you're opening yourself up to be bluffed off the pot when a scary river hits.

bulldawg shows [9h Td]IHaveAStrong9 shows [5c 8s]IHaveAStrong9: HOLD*** RIVER *** [6d 9s 7c 9c] [7d]bulldawg shows a full house, Nines full of SevensIHaveAStrong9 shows a straight, Nine highbulldawg wins the pot ($311.50) with a full house, Nines full of SevensIHaveAStrong9 is sitting out*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $312 | Rake $0.50Board: [6d 9s 7c 9c 7d]Seat 1: bulldawg (big blind) showed [9h Td] and won ($311.50) with a full house, Nines full of SevensSeat 2: IHaveAStrong9 (small blind) showed [5c 8s] and lost with a straight, Nine highAlright there are the results. I know its easy to say that i put him on trips after i see his hand, but I really did feel that, and im still conflicted on whether or not the best play is to call or raise. To whoever said they arnt confident about having a sucker straight there.....you must not play any heads up ever. I flopped the 2nd nuts and its heads up. Theres not too much to be worried about. And finally, to those who continously make retarded replies, you guys are funny. seriously. pat yourselves on the back. because you are funny. im laughing a lot right now. yeah. sweet forum too. really sweet.

[Zach6668 513]

And finally, to those who continously make retarded replies, you guys are funny. seriously. pat yourselves on the back. because you are funny. im laughing a lot right now. yeah. sweet forum too. really sweet.

If you're sick of retarded replies... POST IN THE CORRECT FORUM.FOLLOW THE FORUM POSTING GUIDELINES.CONVERT YOUR HANDS.STOP ACTING LIKE YOU HATE THE FORUM IF YOU KEEP COMING BACK. Follow the rules, and you'll find you get excellent support.

[donk4life 34]

bulldawg shows [9h Td]IHaveAStrong9 shows [5c 8s]IHaveAStrong9: HOLD*** RIVER *** [6d 9s 7c 9c] [7d]bulldawg shows a full house, Nines full of SevensIHaveAStrong9 shows a straight, Nine highbulldawg wins the pot ($311.50) with a full house, Nines full of SevensIHaveAStrong9 is sitting out*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $312 | Rake $0.50Board: [6d 9s 7c 9c 7d]Seat 1: bulldawg (big blind) showed [9h Td] and won ($311.50) with a full house, Nines full of SevensSeat 2: IHaveAStrong9 (small blind) showed [5c 8s] and lost with a straight, Nine highAlright there are the results. I know its easy to say that i put him on trips after i see his hand, but I really did feel that, and im still conflicted on whether or not the best play is to call or raise. To whoever said they arnt confident about having a sucker straight there.....you must not play any heads up ever. I flopped the 2nd nuts and its heads up. Theres not too much to be worried about. And finally, to those who continously make retarded replies, you guys are funny. seriously. pat yourselves on the back. because you are funny. im laughing a lot right now. yeah. sweet forum too. really sweet.

Wait, since when is saying converting your hands retarded?Oh and btw, you lost, don't criticize us.. You're the one who makes a dumb *** bet on the turn with a paired board.. nice play there..

[Zach6668 513]

Wait, since when is saying converting your hands retarded?Oh and btw, you lost, don't criticize us.. You're the one who makes a dumb *** bet on the turn with a paired board.. nice play there..

^^^I think this is the kind of reply he is talking about.Please post constructive comments, or don't post.Thanks.- Zach

[donk4life 34]

^^^I think this is the kind of reply he is talking about.Please post constructive comments, or don't post.Thanks.- Zach

Lol, a truthful comment are the kind he is talking about?And it was constructive, I was critiquing his play..

[Roberts2003 0]

Lol, a truthful comment are the kind he is talking about?And it was constructive, I was critiquing his play..

if you are being serious, then never ever play poker again. after all why would want to keep losing money??

[dms26 3]

Alright there are the results. I know its easy to say that i put him on trips after i see his hand, but I really did feel that, and im still conflicted on whether or not the best play is to call or raise. To whoever said they arnt confident about having a sucker straight there.....you must not play any heads up ever. I flopped the 2nd nuts and its heads up. Theres not too much to be worried about. And finally, to those who continously make retarded replies, you guys are funny. seriously. pat yourselves on the back. because you are funny. im laughing a lot right now. yeah. sweet forum too. really sweet.

you got all the money in as a favorite, that's all you can do. There is way more value in that than flat calling and looking for a reason to fold the river.