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Aa On Dry Flop


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#1 simo_8ball

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Posted 08 April 2007 - 02:07 PM

(converted from Pokerhand.org)FullTiltPoker (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'emSeat 1: HighcardV ($173.90)Seat 3: JJProdigys Gran ($181)Dealt to JJProdigys Gran (Hero): A :club: A :D Preflop:Villain calls, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4.5, 2 folds, BB calls, Villain calls.Flop: ($14)4 :D 9 :D 5 :D BB checks, Villain bets $10, Hero raises to $33, BB folds, Villain raises to $88,Hero?Housemate's hand. I'm about 80% fold.

#2 NEtwowilldo

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Posted 08 April 2007 - 03:16 PM

The preflop limp is the only thing that worries me.Leading into the raiser when you flop a set would be the right play if that's what he has. But is he a slowplayer? Or is he overvaluing A 9? I want to say fold but I also want to know what he has so I probably pay it off.
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#3 fatman

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Posted 08 April 2007 - 05:19 PM

It looks a lot like he flopped a set or has an overpair to the board. You have to figure out how often he has that set to know if this is a valuable call. The limp scares me and makes me think he has hit his set. I would like to fold but I can't ever fold aces on a board like this so I probably pay him off.
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#4 Zach6668

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Posted 08 April 2007 - 08:25 PM

View Postfatman, on Sunday, April 8th, 2007, 9:19 PM, said:

It looks a lot like he flopped a set or has an overpair to the board. You have to figure out how often he has that set to know if this is a valuable call. The limp scares me and makes me think he has hit his set. I would like to fold but I can't ever fold aces on a board like this so I probably pay him off.
You should be MORE likely to fold aces on this flop, than you should on a more coordinated board, simply due to the fact that there are fewer draws that villain could be playing fast.Anyways, if we call this, we're playing for stacks. We aren't folding a turn, obv. There is $135 in the pot, plus another ~$82 in his stack. So we'd need to call $55+$82 to win a pot of $217. We're getting 217-137... 1.58 to 1. Meaning, if we feel we are ahead here ~39% of the time, we can call.FWIW, I say call, not shove, because shoving may get a fold from a lesser hand. We're either way ahead or way behind, so if I feel I'm ahead 39%+, then I'm calling and letting him bluff/value bet off the rest of his stack.- Zach
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
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#5 trystero

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Posted 08 April 2007 - 08:26 PM

I fold up shop. The only hands you are beating are overpairs to the board and villain probably is not open limping with tens or better. Well, you could luck out and villain could be 'slowplaying' kings, but this is as obvious a set as you're ever going to see. You need a read that villain's an idiot here in order to call.

#6 mtdesmoines

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 07:21 AM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Sunday, April 8th, 2007, 2:07 PM, said:

(converted from Pokerhand.org)FullTiltPoker (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'emSeat 1: HighcardV ($173.90)Seat 3: JJProdigys Gran ($181)Dealt to JJProdigys Gran (Hero): A :club: A :D Preflop:Villain calls, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4.5, 2 folds, BB calls, Villain calls.Flop: ($14)4 :D 9 :D 5 :D BB checks, Villain bets $10, Hero raises to $33, BB folds, Villain raises to $88,Hero?Housemate's hand. I'm about 80% fold.
Housemate?KK and sets play like this. That's about all I can tell you.
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#7 simo_8ball

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 07:52 AM

View Postmtdesmoines, on Monday, April 9th, 2007, 4:21 PM, said:

Housemate?
house∑mate (hous'māt') n.One who shares a house with another??He asked what I thought, and I said it was a fold. Figured I'd see what others thought as well. Here was the chat:http://www.pokerhand.org/?978913HighcardV has 15 seconds left to actHighcardV raises to $88JProdigys Gran : you have a setJJProdigys Gran has 15 seconds left to actHighcardV : noJJProdigys Gran : well very well playedJJProdigys Gran foldsUncalled bet of $55 returned to HighcardVJUJILICIOUS has returnedHighcardV mucksHighcardV wins the pot ($77)HighcardV claimed he had TT.

#8 mtdesmoines

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 07:59 AM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Monday, April 9th, 2007, 7:52 AM, said:

1. house·mate (hous'm?t') n. - One who shares a house with another ??Why are you paying rake on FT? It's just a question, don't take it too seriously. He asked what I thought, and I said it was a fold. Figured I'd see what others thought as well. Here was the chat:http://www.pokerhand.org/?978913HighcardV has 15 seconds left to actHighcardV raises to $88JProdigys Gran : you have a setJJProdigys Gran has 15 seconds left to actHighcardV : noJJProdigys Gran : well very well playedJJProdigys Gran foldsUncalled bet of $55 returned to HighcardVJUJILICIOUS has returnedHighcardV mucksHighcardV wins the pot ($77)HighcardV claimed he had TT.OK, I don't mind the fold. And unless you see cards, you can't believe what someone says they had. Metagame. Anyway, I play aces to death on these ragged boards. He's 8:1 to have flopped his set. If we get it all in with AA every time this board comes, we make a lot of mobney

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#9 Ouch-8s

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 08:08 AM

View Postmtdesmoines, on Monday, April 9th, 2007, 8:21 AM, said:

KK and sets play like this. That's about all I can tell you.
You think KK plays like this really? Sure KK can open-limp, but I don't think he's going to flatcall Hero's raise PF to close the action. That's an auto-raise.This screams set.
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#10 simo_8ball

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 08:10 AM

Quote

Why are you paying rake on FT? It's just a question, don't take it too seriously.
We both have rakeback. Why do you ask?

Quote

OK, I don't mind the fold. And unless you see cards, you can't believe what someone says they had. Metagame. Anyway, I play aces to death on these ragged boards. He's 10:1 to have flopped his set. If we get it all in with AA every time this board comes, we make a lot of mobney
Yeah, I don't believe TT plays this hand anything like this. The question is, how deep would you need to be to fold aces on a ragged flop? Here we have effective stacks of over 170xbb. Even after the flop reraise villain still has $80 behind.He's about 7.5:1 to have flopped his set.

#11 mtdesmoines

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 08:13 AM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Monday, April 9th, 2007, 8:10 AM, said:

1. We both have rakeback. Why do you ask?2. Yeah, I don't believe TT plays this hand anything like this. The question is, how deep would you need to be to fold aces on a ragged flop? Here we have effective stacks of over 170xbb. Even after the flop reraise villain still has $80 behind.3. He's about 7.5:1 to have flopped his set.
1. Just simple curiousity. That makes more sense.2. Pretty GD deep. Both of us.3. Yeah, I changed it. Like I said, I pretty much play AA to the death on these flops. You're behind about 20% of the time.
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#12 No_Neck

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 08:19 AM

i push but I suck at poker.... I think you are right though, the preflop action, and the board being this dry I can't imagine he doesn't have a set. Unless he is a nutball with 22 or something.

#13 Mikey Ravioli

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 11:10 AM

If you believe he made his set, then you pretty much only have two outs. I am not counting the double gut shot str8 draw. That gives you about 10% chance to win the hand. It looks like you need to call $50+ into a $130+ pot. The pot odds are way to slim to compete with the drawing odds. I fold and wait for a better chance.

#14 Acid_Knight

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 11:27 AM

View PostMikey Ravioli, on Monday, April 9th, 2007, 12:10 PM, said:

If you believe he made his set, then you pretty much only have two outs. I am not counting the double gut shot str8 draw.
Double gutshot what? He has AA. FWIW, I'm gonna get my money in there. Many players are bad enough to play overpairs like this, or even overvalue top pair. I think you're behind 25% of the time, 1/3 of the time at most. If you know the villain is nitty, then go ahead and dump it. Otherwise, I'm gonna get it in here.

#15 Zach6668

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 11:27 AM

View PostNo_Neck, on Monday, April 9th, 2007, 12:19 PM, said:

i push but I suck at poker.... I think you are right though, the preflop action, and the board being this dry I can't imagine he doesn't have a set. Unless he is a nutball with 22 or something.
Pushing sucks, imo. Call and let him shove the turn, don't give him a chance to fold (although it would be a small chance).
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#16 Acid_Knight

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 11:31 AM

View PostZach6668, on Monday, April 9th, 2007, 12:27 PM, said:

Pushing sucks, imo. Call and let him shove the turn, don't give him a chance to fold (although it would be a small chance).
I agree with this. You're playing for his stack. He's OOP, so let him put it in for you on the turn.

#17 tskillz187

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 11:33 AM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Monday, April 9th, 2007, 9:10 AM, said:

The question is, how deep would you need to be to fold aces on a ragged flop?
For me it's very opponent based, but I feel like if I have 150bbs and so does my opponent, I should not get stacked on a flop with an overpair. I'd ditch here if I thought the opponent was solid.
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#18 Mikey Ravioli

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 11:35 AM

Duece - trey on the turn and river gives him a str8. Assuming he has a set the AA doesn't hold up.If he has a set the board pairing actually eliminates outs. One of the two remaining aces or perfect perfect is the only way to get on top of the set and I assume he had the set. I need more then a 2 out of 47 chance if the pot is only giving me between 2 and 2 and a half times my money to call the reraise.

#19 simo_8ball

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 11:40 AM

View PostMikey Ravioli, on Monday, April 9th, 2007, 8:35 PM, said:

Duece - trey on the turn and river gives him a str8. Assuming he has a set the board pairing actually eliminates outs. One of the two remaining aces or perfect perfect is the only way to get on top of the set.I need more then a 2 out of 47 chance if the pot is only giving me between 2 and 2 and a half times my money to call the reraise.
If we assume he has a set it's a trivial fold. The problem is, we can't assume that. We need to assess how often he will have a set or 45, and how often he will have TT+.I personally think that limp/calling preflop with a high pair is a pretty rare occurance. However, so is flopping a set. This is the conundrum.

#20 Mikey Ravioli

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Posted 09 April 2007 - 11:49 AM

Its your question, but the reraise was roughly a pot sized bet. If he bet half the pot I would think he was trying to get action (10-10+). If he bet 2x the pot I would think he was trying to end the hand right there (drawing with a bunch of outs). Betting the pot makes me think a set. Enough to give you the wrong odds to call and draw, but not really afraid if you did call.




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