Posted 07 April 2007 - 01:52 PM
I think we have to put him another king or a pocket pair like 66-1010 here. JJ-AA can be ruled out as he would probably open raise, or limp reraise your bet. I think there are only two legitimate hands that beat us here. I'd be worried about A5 or 44. Probably rarely 44, but it might calls us once on the flop figuring it for a continuation bet. Maybe a suited connector with a 5 in it but I think thats less likely. I can't think of anyway he calls the flop with two spades in his hand so that can be ruled out. If he did have trips or a boat he would have to raise the turn, or lead the river. Being out of position he is risking loosing a lot of value slow playing this all the way and check raising the river. Another king is probably the most likely hand as hes called two fairly strong bets. This is a situation where I would probably be allright getting stacked with only top pair, as we beat so much.
I'm kind of leaning towards over betting the pot and just pushing in. Either that or maybe bet something like 30, the all in might look more like a bluff though. That bet would look like we don't want a call and might induce one. Also, it would only have to get called about 1/3 as many time as the $12 value bet to show the same overall return. Theres enough donks that will stack off with top pair mediocure kicker it might hold even more value than the value bet over the long run. Even if it doesn't get called it sets us up with a some what crazy table image that will pay off the next time we have a lock hand and play it the exact same way. Also, to a good opponent, betting strong all the way to the river, then throwing out a small value bet gives away that we have a big hand. It just looks like your trying to get paid off.
Not in this spot but, I might be inclined to check down the river on different boards. If a 3 flush hits or there are straight possibilites, even a board with a couple more face cards, there would be a greater possibility we are beat. Anytime it looks like the river card could have possibly hit our oppenents range of hands I'd be leaning towards checking. Even take the same flop and change the turn and river to a Q and a J, I'd probably check as a lot of the villians range of hands hit. Just checking and showing it down would a safe play and gives us valuable information that could lead to getting increased value in other hands. We probably lose some value checking but the pot is allready fairly good size for a one pair hand, I'd be happy with it.
1
A 
($4.75, 3 players)
