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Thoughts On A Bluff


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#21 Acid_Knight

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 11:06 AM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 11:59 AM, said:

I really don't view him betting 2/3, 2/3, 3/4 as being all that constistent( river I mean). If he has a one pair hand AA KK etc does he really expect to get get paid off here by hands that he beats? That seems odd. Playing one pair that fast against a caller seems dangerous to me. The only solid thing I can see about his river bet in retrospect as it can be seen as a blocker, figuring hands he beats will call and some hands he may be behind may feel less inclined to raise.
If I have AA, the hand is pretty simple. I am betting and you are calling. There are really 2 likely choices. You have a pair or a draw. Sometimes you have a better hand, but when the flush draw pops up on the turn and you just flat call, I am not really worried about you being ahead too often anymore. After your flat call on the turn, I am putting you on a draw or a weak hand like QJ maybe.The river is an easy value bet becuase if you have the draw, you're folding. If you have QJ, the board isn't any scarier for you and you've called every bet that I've made so far, so you'll probably call another, which is why the bet on the river is still strong. It's not a blocker bet becuase I feel there is very little chance that you're ever beating me the way the hand has played out. I'm slightly worried about the 89 draw, but that's the ONLY hand that has drawn out on me. Your push here is getitng called by AA a lot becuase he's getting good pot odds to do so and your line doesn't make any sense.

#22 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 11:08 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 10:46 AM, said:

I don't think you had much of a read. Everything about the hand says that he has a big hand, yet you're contending that he has garbage. This whole play just doesn't make sense at any point to me.
I think I had an excellent read, I side bet a friend and said I'm ninety percent sure he's got a busted draw but the other ten says he's got nothing more then a pair. The question becomes on the river if he has a pair will he lay it down.
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#23 Acid_Knight

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 11:10 AM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 12:03 PM, said:

You think by calling my hand looks weak? I think thats very dependant my calling could also mean a lot of strength, I could show you a number of hands where I've played out the hand in a similar manner with a huge holding. COnfidently betting AA on three streets is easier said then done when you know my hand, and what about when I shove the river? Even with deeper stacks are you confident enough in that spot that I'm on a weak hand. I wonder what the talk would be of this hand if I posted as villain holding somehing like AA, KK.
By calling on the turn, your hand looks weak. On the flop, you might be strong, you might have a pair or you might be drawing. On the turn, with one card to come and the villain still saying "hey, i've got a hand that I'm pretty confident is winning," your call shows weakness becuase if you had him beaten, it'd be in your best interest to use his confidence to get paid off since there are now more scare cards that can fall on the river and slow the action down.Don't change the situation and ask about deeper stacks. The stacks are not deep. If they were, the hand would be different. They're not and the way that this hand has played out, I will probably call a river push against most players with AA or KK here becuase the line that they took against me looks more like a missed draw than it does a hand that beats mine.

#24 Acid_Knight

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 11:12 AM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 12:08 PM, said:

I think I had an excellent read, I side bet a friend and said I'm ninety percent sure he's got a busted draw but the other ten says he's got nothing more then a pair. The question becomes on the river if he has a pair will he lay it down.
If it's a read based on a physical tell of some kind, that's one thing. There is nothing about his betting pattern in this hand that looks weak at all.

#25 dms26

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 11:16 AM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 3:05 PM, said:

I suppose your right this is 1/2 after all. But generally smaller sets play out a lot fast then this or check raise the flop oop.
If he's a thinking player he's probably saying that about your hand as well, wondering why you would just flat calling the flop and turn with a lot of different types of drawing hands possible. I wouldn't put you on a set or two pair if I'm villain.
QUOTE (CozMyn @ Sunday, March 8th, 2009, 5:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
i tried to talk here about that program, the RNG , not to talk about when to accept all in without to see flop.
You can accept all in whenever you want, or whenever you feel lucky, but in virtual room's is not like in reality. In reality anything is possible... in virtual rooms you can be "the one" who knows the future, or who can change the future.

#26 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 11:55 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 11:10 AM, said:

By calling on the turn, your hand looks weak. On the flop, you might be strong, you might have a pair or you might be drawing. On the turn, with one card to come and the villain still saying "hey, i've got a hand that I'm pretty confident is winning," your call shows weakness becuase if you had him beaten, it'd be in your best interest to use his confidence to get paid off since there are now more scare cards that can fall on the river and slow the action down.Don't change the situation and ask about deeper stacks. The stacks are not deep. If they were, the hand would be different. They're not and the way that this hand has played out, I will probably call a river push against most players with AA or KK here becuase the line that they took against me looks more like a missed draw than it does a hand that beats mine.
Firstly I appreciate the discussion with you on this hand. I had started than stopped posting in strat as I often have a different approach than the masses, and found the constant "this is the only way to play" attitude frustrating. You make a lot of valid points. I am not sure what levels you typically play (with zero bankroll management I fluctuate from 1/2,2/4,3/6 depending on my mood). At this level I often find that most people are quick to "try to define their hands". Generally a top pair hand at this level will raise the flop or if not almost always raise the turn, by calling I am trying to represent something better than tptk. Certainly a draw would often play out their hand as mine did on the flop and the turn. The river question posed to Villain is am I coming over the top on the river because I'm bluffing a busted draw, made my hand on the river or slow played a set,two pair etc. Because villain had shown weakness through out my time at the table I didn't think he was the type to call off the river shove with at best one pair. Against other people this most certainly wouldn't be the case and against most at the levels I play you are almost never going to shake someone off of an over pair. This is exactly why I often play sets, two pair etc the same way because against most I'm getting this river shove paid off.
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#27 dms26

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 12:07 PM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 3:55 PM, said:

Because villain had shown weakness through out my time at the table I didn't think he was the type to call off the river shove with at best one pair. Against other people this most certainly wouldn't be the case and against most at the levels I play you are almost never going to shake someone off of an over pair. This is exactly why I often play sets, two pair etc the same way because against most I'm getting this river shove paid off.
I don't think a lot of people view an overpair as just one pair. Trying to get people off high pocket pairs just generally isn't a good idea. Another thing that really hasn't been mentioned is that he bet half his remaining stack on the river and had about 65% of his total stack in the middle, how many hands is he folding to your river raise with? Especially a weak/tight player.
QUOTE (CozMyn @ Sunday, March 8th, 2009, 5:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
i tried to talk here about that program, the RNG , not to talk about when to accept all in without to see flop.
You can accept all in whenever you want, or whenever you feel lucky, but in virtual room's is not like in reality. In reality anything is possible... in virtual rooms you can be "the one" who knows the future, or who can change the future.

#28 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 01:31 PM

View Postdms26, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 12:07 PM, said:

I don't think a lot of people view an overpair as just one pair. Trying to get people off high pocket pairs just generally isn't a good idea. Another thing that really hasn't been mentioned is that he bet half his remaining stack on the river and had about 65% of his total stack in the middle, how many hands is he folding to your river raise with? Especially a weak/tight player.
I agree...as I said sometimes I'm guilty of trying to win every pot I play. As for the second part I did take how much he put into the pot and had left behind into consideration however I strongly felt he was 90% missed draw and 10% big pair. I felt very strongly from his play at the table as well as this hand that he wasn't calling here. On an interesting side not I posted this hand in two other forums under the position of villain Ac Ad. After a number of responses I have yet to hear one person say to call the river shove with AA. This is posted on 2+2 and pocketfives. General consensus is that the AA is up against two pair or a set.
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#29 Jordan

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 01:44 PM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 1:31 PM, said:

I agree...as I said sometimes I'm guilty of trying to win every pot I play. As for the second part I did take how much he put into the pot and had left behind into consideration however I strongly felt he was 90% missed draw and 10% big pair. I felt very strongly from his play at the table as well as this hand that he wasn't calling here. On an interesting side not I posted this hand in two other forums under the position of villain Ac Ad. After a number of responses I have yet to hear one person say to call the river shove with AA. This is posted on 2+2 and pocketfives. General consensus is that the AA is up against two pair or a set.
link to thread.- Jordan

#30 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 01:57 PM

linking is hard!!!!!!
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#31 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 01:57 PM

View PostJordan, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 1:44 PM, said:

link to thread.- Jordan
not a ton of traffic but interesting anyways http://www.pocketfives.com/F8C67AA2-B97E-4A39-937B-70683E4F48B7.aspxhttp://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=9826421&an=0&page=1#Post9826421 There is another thread with a few more replies echoing the same thing at 2+2 because I posted in the wrong spot.
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#32 Lavitz

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 05:51 PM

I agree you might get some opponents to fold an overpair like AA but I think the call to begin with is dumb. You shouldn't be playing pathetic hands with the thought process "I can take him off a hand". Also, OP said you might play a strong hand this exact way? May I ask why?? If anything youre giving a hand that he's missed with outs to suck out (AK,AQ,KQ) and if he has an overpair youre just giving him a chance to see more scare cards to get away from his hand (another, J,10, flush card, etc) or play cautious. A set should be popping turn or flop to make an overpair committed for river and charge him extra if he missed with overcards instead of giving him a free chance at a gutshot.This play MIGHT be OK if youre perceived as ultra tight and villian is tight as well and competent. Otherwise, if you've been making plays like this, you're just going to be seen as a LAG and villians will call you down.

#33 Jordan

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 06:56 PM

well it depends on who answers over there.there are a TON of TagFish on 2+2 it's sickening really.I personally don't like this play. Your story sucks as what hand you are trying to sell...as most ppl raise up the turn if they slowplay a flop, just calling turn really looks like a draw.River play will only work if you caught him on a 3barrel bluff, unlikely, or you were deeper.In this case, your reasoning is poor. His bet sizes aren't werid or really diff. and using that as a reason is just silly.I think good players call you down here a lot (and bad players everytime). They are getting a good price on the call and they have to put you on basically a flopped set. - Jordan

#34 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 07:18 PM

View PostLavitz, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 5:51 PM, said:

I agree you might get some opponents to fold an overpair like AA but I think the call to begin with is dumb. You shouldn't be playing pathetic hands with the thought process "I can take him off a hand". Also, OP said you might play a strong hand this exact way? May I ask why?? If anything youre giving a hand that he's missed with outs to suck out (AK,AQ,KQ) and if he has an overpair youre just giving him a chance to see more scare cards to get away from his hand (another, J,10, flush card, etc) or play cautious. A set should be popping turn or flop to make an overpair committed for river and charge him extra if he missed with overcards instead of giving him a free chance at a gutshot.This play MIGHT be OK if youre perceived as ultra tight and villian is tight as well and competent. Otherwise, if you've been making plays like this, you're just going to be seen as a LAG and villians will call you down.
Point 1: Maybe not. If you sense that someone is weak and will only go broke with the nuts, it really doesn't matter what you hold. The fact that people think you need a better hand to bluff negates some of the point of a bluff. Plus I'm generally fairly lag preflop because I feel I'm better than average post flop. Point2: IMO is a very low limit way of looking at things. I'm not saying I always play made hands like this but to try to price people out of draws or push weaker hands out of pots lowers your ev. If I hit a set of J's here and this guy is going to regularly fire two bullets and sometimes three with a draw, the chances of him drawing out don't increase because he's the one doing the betting.
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#35 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 07:30 PM

View PostJordan, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 6:56 PM, said:

well it depends on who answers over there.there are a TON of TagFish on 2+2 it's sickening really.I personally don't like this play. Your story sucks as what hand you are trying to sell...as most ppl raise up the turn if they slowplay a flop, just calling turn really looks like a draw.River play will only work if you caught him on a 3barrel bluff, unlikely, or you were deeper.In this case, your reasoning is poor. His bet sizes aren't werid or really diff. and using that as a reason is just silly.I think good players call you down here a lot (and bad players everytime). They are getting a good price on the call and they have to put you on basically a flopped set. - Jordan
Out of maybe fifteen responses on p5's and 2+2 the closest I've seen to anyone saying call was one person saying I should've check called a reasonable river bet but as played I need to let it go. Those opinions may very well sway as more people respond but I greatly suspect the responses on this forum would be vastly different if I had posted as villain. My reasoning may seem poor to you and I understand it if we look solely on this hand as opposed to the hands villain had played previously. As far as my reasoning being silly I suppose thats subjective, I just felt as though his best case scenario was an over pair and with the way he'd played previously he'd slow down on the turn or certainly the river and hope to get bluffed at or keep the pot smaller. I do not think that this play is always optimal or optimal at all against certain people however from my experience with this villain I felt as though he didn't have enough of a hand to call a shove and he was way weak to put me on any hand that one pair beats.I get that most people raise up the turn if they slowplayed the flop, that like c-bet has become almost to standard which is as I said why I will sometimes play flopped sets, two pair etc exactly like this.
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#36 fckthis

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 08:37 PM

Kinda looks like overpairs arent good to shoves anymore. Ala Ivey vs Booth. Also, I do notice on 2+2, one pair to a river shove seems to always get the same answer. Fold, or lean towards folding. Well if you think you can do it, then I guess you should. The reason this bluff works, is becase a) most people dont shove with nothing on the river. B) its not easy calling off your stack, regardless of how high your pair is, on the river. Getting caught on something like this, would def. hurt your table image though lol.
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#37 Naismith

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 08:43 PM

View Postfckthis, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 8:37 PM, said:

Kinda looks like overpairs arent good to shoves anymore. Ala Ivey vs Booth. Also, I do notice on 2+2, one pair to a river shove seems to always get the same answer. Fold, or lean towards folding. Well if you think you can do it, then I guess you should. The reason this bluff works, is becase a) most people dont shove with nothing on the river. B) its not easy calling off your stack, regardless of how high your pair is, on the river. Getting caught on something like this, would def. hurt your table image though lol.
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#38 fckthis

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 08:55 PM

View PostNaismith, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 8:43 PM, said:

Yeah, but here's the seriously important question.A friend and I got in a debate as to who is hotter, Jessica Alba or this girl: I don't even think it's close, and I think Alba's really hot. This girl makes Alba look like my poker game...ugly and full of leaks. Wait, that doesn't make sense.
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#39 Naismith

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 09:51 PM

View Postfckthis, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 8:55 PM, said:

Alba AINEC.
Bad read!
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#40 Acid_Knight

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Posted 04 April 2007 - 07:28 AM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 8:18 PM, said:

Point 1: Maybe not. If you sense that someone is weak and will only go broke with the nuts, it really doesn't matter what you hold. The fact that people think you need a better hand to bluff negates some of the point of a bluff. Plus I'm generally fairly lag preflop because I feel I'm better than average post flop. Point2: IMO is a very low limit way of looking at things. I'm not saying I always play made hands like this but to try to price people out of draws or push weaker hands out of pots lowers your ev. If I hit a set of J's here and this guy is going to regularly fire two bullets and sometimes three with a draw, the chances of him drawing out don't increase because he's the one doing the betting.
Very few players, even at higher limits, choose to enter the pot with any 2 cards in an attempt to bluff someone. When they do, they know a very preceise range of hands that the player has PREFLOP based on a tell and they know what flop they need to be able to take them off of their hand.you said "The fact that people think you need a better hand to bluff negates some of the point of a bluff." Your hand doesn't matter, but how you become involved in the hand and when it turns into a bluff do matter. Calling a raise preflop with a hopeless hand like Q4 suited is not a good play. If you call with a hand like 57 suited and miss the flop and feel your opponent is weak, then you can make a play to take it away. You don't do a delayed bluff where you flat call on 2 streets and then push on a fairly harmless river card, hoping that he'll laydown whatever he's bet all 3 streets with.Most players fire 1 bullet bluffs. Some will fire 2. Very few players fire 3 bullets as a bluff, and when they do the bets are rarely sized as 2/3 to 3/4 of the pot each time.




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