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Thoughts On A Bluff


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#1 fours_full

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 08:53 AM

Sorry couldn't get the converter to work. This was a hand my brother played the other night. He usually plays higher than this but a group of weredrinking and he decided to start at $50 max and move up as he doubled. I say this play is retarded and he says its read dependant. I'm enterin his thoughts as he explained to us while the hand played.Seat 1: knucklehead ($211.30 in chips)Seat 3: Junkplayer ($48 in chips)Seat 4: Mactard ($62 in chips)Seat 5: happy ($196.80 in chips)Seat 6: HERO ($260.55 in chips)Seat 8: sagass ($136.50 in chips)Seat 9: 123456 ($98 in chips)123456: posts small blind $1knucklehead: posts big blind $2*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to HERO [4s Qs]Junkplayer: foldsMactard: foldshappy: raises $6 to $8 HERO: calls $8 This guy is weak I can take this off himsagass: folds123456: foldsknucklehead: folds*** FLOP *** [Ts Jd 5h]happy: bets $12 HERO: calls $12 I think he's on a draw, this board hits a lot of calling hands, if he's made like an over pair he'll bet heavier on a board this coordinated. I'm coming over him if the turn bricks.*** TURN *** [Ts Jd 5h] [2s]happy: bets $28HERO: calls $28 He's on KQ or AsKs I'm not raising cus I picked up a back door draw...*** RIVER *** [Ts Jd 5h 2s] [7h]happy: bets $76 Look at the bet compared to prvious streets no way this card helped himHERO: raises $136.55 to $212.55 and is all-inhappy: Is this standard line of thinking for a higher end player or was he drunk and retarded?

#2 simo_8ball

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 09:11 AM

This is a strong case of FPS. My vote is drunk and retarded.

#3 Acid_Knight

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 09:42 AM

This play is retarded.Preflop - you arbitrarily decide that he is weak, based on what? If you think he's weak preflop then you raise preflop and take control of the hand. Calling with garbage like Q4 suited makes no sense.On the flop- He bets 3/4 of the pot, which is a solid bet for any real hand. Saying that he'd bet more on that "coordinated" board is not true, since the board isn't that coordinated. If there was a flush draw out there, then I'd be worried, but the JT combo alone really only provides a draw to KQ, Q9 and 89 and that's it. There are no other draws on that board that aren't gutshot straight draws or backdoor flush draws.On the turn - Another solid bet that represents 2/3 of the pot on a completely harmless turn card.On the river - Yet another solid bet that represents about 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot. Of course the off suit 7 didn't help him and he's not representing that it did. He is easily value betting a pair of aces or kings here.Every single bet that the villain made in this hand seems like a solid value bet designed to get paid off with what he probably feels is the best hand. Your play on the other hand makes no sense whatsoever. What hand are you trying to represent? You're not thinking about what you're trying to represent. You just randomly chose a hand that you'd try and run an elaborate bluff on an opponent who has appeared to be very strong on every street.Ditto the vote of Drunk & Retarded.

#4 GABMAD

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 09:50 AM

Bad bluff....stacks aren't deep enough and the guy obviously has a strong hand. It would have been better to come over the top on the turn then on the river because nothing looks believable.

#5 simo_8ball

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 09:55 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 6:42 PM, said:

This play is retarded.Preflop - you arbitrarily decide that he is weak, based on what? If you think he's weak preflop then you raise preflop and take control of the hand. Calling with garbage like Q4 suited makes no sense.On the flop- He bets 3/4 of the pot, which is a solid bet for any real hand. Saying that he'd bet more on that "coordinated" board is not true, since the board isn't that coordinated. If there was a flush draw out there, then I'd be worried, but the JT combo alone really only provides a draw to KQ, Q9 and 89 and that's it. There are no other draws on that board that aren't gutshot straight draws or backdoor flush draws.On the turn - Another solid bet that represents 2/3 of the pot on a completely harmless turn card.On the river - Yet another solid bet that represents about 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot. Of course the off suit 7 didn't help him and he's not representing that it did. He is easily value betting a pair of aces or kings here.Every single bet that the villain made in this hand seems like a solid value bet designed to get paid off with what he probably feels is the best hand. Your play on the other hand makes no sense whatsoever. What hand are you trying to represent? You're not thinking about what you're trying to represent. You just randomly chose a hand that you'd try and run an elaborate bluff on an opponent who has appeared to be very strong on every street.Ditto the vote of Drunk & Retarded.
I actually typed out a lot of what you just said (actually nearly word for word on the preflop play) and by the time I got to the turn I gave up on it and just voted retarded. Thanks for writing it all out.Edit: I actually think there could be some merit in shoving the turn, depending on villain. It would be a very tough call with one pair.

#6 dms26

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:01 AM

He's weak but has bet the flop, turn and river? Would a weak player do that with nothing but a straight draw? Even weak players pick up big hands or flop big occasionally.Nothing about this hand screams weakness to me, I think he was just drunk and retarded.
QUOTE (CozMyn @ Sunday, March 8th, 2009, 5:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
i tried to talk here about that program, the RNG , not to talk about when to accept all in without to see flop.
You can accept all in whenever you want, or whenever you feel lucky, but in virtual room's is not like in reality. In reality anything is possible... in virtual rooms you can be "the one" who knows the future, or who can change the future.

#7 Acid_Knight

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:07 AM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 10:55 AM, said:

I actually typed out a lot of what you just said (actually nearly word for word on the preflop play) and by the time I got to the turn I gave up on it and just voted retarded. Thanks for writing it all out.Edit: I actually think there could be some merit in shoving the turn, depending on villain. It would be a very tough call with one pair.
When I see something this stupid, I like to go at it :)I don't see what pushing the turn does. I mean, are you repping a set and are now pushing? The 2 of spades couldn't really help you. I'd be very suspicious of someone who pushes the turn here.

#8 simo_8ball

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:13 AM

I see sets played like this a lot (call flop, raise turn). I just think it is very difficult to call such a big bet with AJ/QQ/KK/AA here when all you can beat is a bluff. There aren't many hands suited in spades that can call the flop and semibluff the turn.You'd be suspicious, but I still don't know if you can call very often.

#9 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:18 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 9:42 AM, said:

This play is retarded.Preflop - you arbitrarily decide that he is weak, based on what? If you think he's weak preflop then you raise preflop and take control of the hand. Calling with garbage like Q4 suited makes no sense.On the flop- He bets 3/4 of the pot, which is a solid bet for any real hand. Saying that he'd bet more on that "coordinated" board is not true, since the board isn't that coordinated. If there was a flush draw out there, then I'd be worried, but the JT combo alone really only provides a draw to KQ, Q9 and 89 and that's it. There are no other draws on that board that aren't gutshot straight draws or backdoor flush draws.On the turn - Another solid bet that represents 2/3 of the pot on a completely harmless turn card.On the river - Yet another solid bet that represents about 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot. Of course the off suit 7 didn't help him and he's not representing that it did. He is easily value betting a pair of aces or kings here.Every single bet that the villain made in this hand seems like a solid value bet designed to get paid off with what he probably feels is the best hand. Your play on the other hand makes no sense whatsoever. What hand are you trying to represent? You're not thinking about what you're trying to represent. You just randomly chose a hand that you'd try and run an elaborate bluff on an opponent who has appeared to be very strong on every street.Ditto the vote of Drunk & Retarded.
I'll comment considering it was my hand. Calling with Q4 maybe retarded but I had a very good feel for how this guy played. These are thigs that were missed in the OP His raise preflop was standard from the hijack and as a ton of players he c-bet(60% standard) constantly even drunk I observed that. The pots he had played with big pair or hitting flops hard he either check raised or led heavy (ie pot size on coordinated boards). His turn bet is solid not a lot of people fire out the second shot and I agree with that. I think if he's not drawing and has a made hand ie over pair or tptk which he thinks is good he more likely ups his bet to pot size ratio or looks to induce a bluff. His river bet is dumb imo. He bets 60-65% on the flop/turn and 75-80% on the river. What value is he getting here? If he has a made hand that he thinks is in the lead why up his bet/pot ratio? Value bet to me is likely 65% of the pot or less looking to get me to bluff it. I actually think I'm representing a number of hands here a flopped set, J10, 98 etc. I know I'm sometimes guilty of feeling I need to win every pot I play but I generally don't do sh-t like this without logic. Results aside.
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#10 fours_full

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:22 AM

I still think its retarded

#11 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:28 AM

View Postfours_full, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 10:22 AM, said:

I still think its retarded
If you're not willing to go with your read you should stick to checkers.
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#12 linkwood

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:30 AM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 11:18 AM, said:

I'll comment considering it was my hand. Calling with Q4 maybe retarded but I had a very good feel for how this guy played. These are thigs that were missed in the OP His raise preflop was standard from the hijack and as a ton of players he c-bet(60% standard) constantly even drunk I observed that. The pots he had played with big pair or hitting flops hard he either check raised or led heavy (ie pot size on coordinated boards). His turn bet is solid not a lot of people fire out the second shot and I agree with that. I think if he's not drawing and has a made hand ie over pair or tptk which he thinks is good he more likely ups his bet to pot size ratio or looks to induce a bluff. His river bet is dumb imo. He bets 60-65% on the flop/turn and 75-80% on the river. What value is he getting here? If he has a made hand that he thinks is in the lead why up his bet/pot ratio? Value bet to me is likely 65% of the pot or less looking to get me to bluff it. I actually think I'm representing a number of hands here a flopped set, J10, 98 etc. I know I'm sometimes guilty of feeling I need to win every pot I play but I generally don't do sh-t like this without logic. Results aside.
still think its retarded.
why do you hate money so much?

#13 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:37 AM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 10:13 AM, said:

I see sets played like this a lot (call flop, raise turn). I just think it is very difficult to call such a big bet with AJ/QQ/KK/AA here when all you can beat is a bluff. There aren't many hands suited in spades that can call the flop and semibluff the turn.You'd be suspicious, but I still don't know if you can call very often.
The turn is often the bluff spot but this is exactly what I was trying to represent. When I picked up the spade draw I decided to call to see the river. As big a hand(or sack) it takes to fire three bullets in his spot unless he's sitting on top set he needs to slow down and question what the hell I have to be calling him with. This is why his river bet didn't make much sense to me.
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#14 Acid_Knight

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:43 AM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 11:18 AM, said:

I'll comment considering it was my hand. Calling with Q4 maybe retarded but I had a very good feel for how this guy played. These are thigs that were missed in the OP His raise preflop was standard from the hijack and as a ton of players he c-bet(60% standard) constantly even drunk I observed that. The pots he had played with big pair or hitting flops hard he either check raised or led heavy (ie pot size on coordinated boards). His turn bet is solid not a lot of people fire out the second shot and I agree with that. I think if he's not drawing and has a made hand ie over pair or tptk which he thinks is good he more likely ups his bet to pot size ratio or looks to induce a bluff. His river bet is dumb imo. He bets 60-65% on the flop/turn and 75-80% on the river. What value is he getting here? If he has a made hand that he thinks is in the lead why up his bet/pot ratio? Value bet to me is likely 65% of the pot or less looking to get me to bluff it. I actually think I'm representing a number of hands here a flopped set, J10, 98 etc. I know I'm sometimes guilty of feeling I need to win every pot I play but I generally don't do sh-t like this without logic. Results aside.
This board is not coordinated or dangerious. There is no flush draw and the JT alone provides only a few reasonable draws.His river bet is not dumb and it also about the same percentage he bet on the flop or turn, not a larger one.On the flop, he bets $12 into $19, which is a 2/3 pot bet.On the turn, he bets $28 into $44, which is also a 2/3 pot bet.On the river, he bets $76 into $100, which is a 3/4 pot bet.Very consistent bet sizing, all designed to get paid off. He makes essentially the same bet on all 3 streets.

#15 Acid_Knight

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:44 AM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 11:37 AM, said:

The turn is often the bluff spot but this is exactly what I was trying to represent. When I picked up the spade draw I decided to call to see the river. As big a hand(or sack) it takes to fire three bullets in his spot unless he's sitting on top set he needs to slow down and question what the hell I have to be calling him with. This is why his river bet didn't make much sense to me.
I'm not slowing down. Your hand looks like a draw or TP, weak kicker from start to finish. I'm gonna confidently bet all 3 streets if I have AA here.

#16 dms26

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:46 AM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 2:37 PM, said:

As big a hand(or sack) it takes to fire three bullets in his spot unless he's sitting on top set he needs to slow down and question what the hell I have to be calling him with. This is why his river bet didn't make much sense to me.
seriously?I'm not slowing down with any set.He could be putting you on TP if he can beat that, it didn't sound like you had been at the table for long. He might just think you're a donk that will pay him off.
QUOTE (CozMyn @ Sunday, March 8th, 2009, 5:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
i tried to talk here about that program, the RNG , not to talk about when to accept all in without to see flop.
You can accept all in whenever you want, or whenever you feel lucky, but in virtual room's is not like in reality. In reality anything is possible... in virtual rooms you can be "the one" who knows the future, or who can change the future.

#17 Acid_Knight

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:46 AM

View Postirishguy, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 11:28 AM, said:

If you're not willing to go with your read you should stick to checkers.
I don't think you had much of a read. Everything about the hand says that he has a big hand, yet you're contending that he has garbage. This whole play just doesn't make sense at any point to me.

#18 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 10:59 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 10:43 AM, said:

This board is not coordinated or dangerious. There is no flush draw and the JT alone provides only a few reasonable draws.His river bet is not dumb and it also about the same percentage he bet on the flop or turn, not a larger one.On the flop, he bets $12 into $19, which is a 2/3 pot bet.On the turn, he bets $28 into $44, which is also a 2/3 pot bet.On the river, he bets $76 into $100, which is a 3/4 pot bet.Very consistent bet sizing, all designed to get paid off. He makes essentially the same bet on all 3 streets.
I really don't view him betting 2/3, 2/3, 3/4 as being all that constistent( river I mean). If he has a one pair hand AA KK etc does he really expect to get get paid off here by hands that he beats? That seems odd. Playing one pair that fast against a caller seems dangerous to me. The only solid thing I can see about his river bet in retrospect as it can be seen as a blocker, figuring hands he beats will call and some hands he may be behind may feel less inclined to raise.
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#19 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 11:03 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 10:44 AM, said:

I'm not slowing down. Your hand looks like a draw or TP, weak kicker from start to finish. I'm gonna confidently bet all 3 streets if I have AA here.
You think by calling my hand looks weak? I think thats very dependant my calling could also mean a lot of strength, I could show you a number of hands where I've played out the hand in a similar manner with a huge holding. COnfidently betting AA on three streets is easier said then done when you know my hand, and what about when I shove the river? Even with deeper stacks are you confident enough in that spot that I'm on a weak hand. I wonder what the talk would be of this hand if I posted as villain holding somehing like AA, KK.
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#20 irishguy

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Posted 03 April 2007 - 11:05 AM

View Postdms26, on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007, 10:46 AM, said:

seriously?I'm not slowing down with any set.He could be putting you on TP if he can beat that, it didn't sound like you had been at the table for long. He might just think you're a donk that will pay him off.
I suppose your right this is 1/2 after all. But generally smaller sets play out a lot fast then this or check raise the flop oop.
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