Posted 02 April 2007 - 08:13 PM
I don't like it. in fact, I will go so far as to say it is "bad."
I'd prefer any of the following lines:
- fold the flop
- fold the turn (one of the most likely hands, TJ, has come through)
- raising the turn, check behind the river
2 is meh now that i think about it.
i think 3 is the best, though on this particular board, i might go with 1. depending on the opponent, i'll go with 3 if i think he's "good" enough to fold the turn, since he doesn't have the odds for his 5-outer. if, like most opponents, he'll call the turn with 5 outs, even if he's folding the river, i'll often just fold the flop.
frankly, i think 3 is better than your line in basically every way, except when 1 is better than both.
Long-term bets:
(2) 76'ers to win title @ 31
Webb Simpson to win US Money Title @ 17
Brandt Snedeker to win US Money Title @ 26
(5) Broncos to win the AFC @ 11
(2.5) Broncos to win the SB @ 21
(2) Bears to win SB @ 42
(0.5) Red Sox to lead AL East @ 6.5
(1.5) White Sox to lead AL Central @ 17.25
Indians to lead AL Central @ 15
Nationals to lead NL East @ 9
(0.5) Marlins to lead NL East @ 6
Padres to lead NL West @ 29
(0.5) Rockies to lead NL West @ 6.5
(0.5) Cardinals to win NL @ 9