Chasing The Draw On A Weakly Played Coordinated Board, Multiway

[pokerfan1080 0]

Well, this is one of those, "let's take a shot at a higher limit" sessions; I like to take risks........ Anyway, I'm getting better than 7:1 to call, but I'm not a big fan of chasing 4 outs. No one seems to really want the pot here though, maybe some weak A's, K's or a flush draw. If my noobie math is correct, I actually need about 12:1 in order to make the call correct. But something just doesn't seem right about the bet and calls. My initial thoughts were to raise due to the weak play before me.No real reads on anyone. What's our best play here?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)CO ($18)Button ($16.50)SB ($29.40)BB ($63.80)UTG ($56.35)Hero ($68.40)MP1 ($54.50)MP2 ($27.65)MP3 ($102.50)Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J, T. 1 fold, Hero calls $1, MP1 raises to $3, 3 folds, Button calls $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2, Hero calls $2.Flop: ($12.50) 6, K, A(4 players)BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets $3, Button calls $3, BB calls $3, Hero ?ETA: I guess my actual odds would be a little worse than I first thought, I need to discount the Q of spades due to the flush draw on the board. So my odds here are more like 15.6:1, not the most favorable.ETA part II: lol, my math sucks....... if I have 4 outs, I think I'm 10.75:1, twice. 3 outs would be 14.6:1, twice. I really need to work on this part of the game more.

[Zach6668 513]

Pretty easy call for me, closing the action.

[pokerfan1080 0]

Pretty easy call for me, closing the action.

So position here is key? And the odds we are getting are not all that bad, so a call is justified due to both of those reasons?Why not raise? Although a raise may thin the field when we really don't want to at this point. Until we hit the straight I guess we prefer more people putting money in the pot.

[Zach6668 513]

Why raise?

[Sefaje 0]

Fold preflop instead of limping. Once it is back to you and you close the action though, you're getting good odds to play JTd.On the flop, I fold. You're drawing to at BEST 4 outs, you're OOP, and it's likely that at least one of these players is drawing to a full house (two pair/set) and is too dumb to raise. Also, spades are bad. It's rarely correct to call on a belly-buster straight draw, and this isn't one of those times. It's not unlikely that some Queens are in people's hands. If the board was A75r and you had 98, it'd be closer. But still probably a "nuh-uh."You like suited connectors too much UTG+1 with JTd is a fold unless the table is playing a certain way that rewards limping cruddy hands in verrrry early position.

[pokerfan1080 0]

Why raise?

I think I covered that in my response......

[pokerfan1080 0]

Fold preflop instead of limping. Once it is back to you and you close the action though, you're getting good odds to play JTd.On the flop, I fold. You're drawing to at BEST 4 outs, you're OOP, and it's likely that at least one of these players is drawing to a full house (two pair/set) and is too dumb to raise. Also, spades are bad. It's rarely correct to call on a belly-buster straight draw, and this isn't one of those times. It's not unlikely that some Queens are in people's hands. If the board was A75r and you had 98, it'd be closer. But still probably a "nuh-uh."You like suited connectors too much UTG+1 with JTd is a fold unless the table is playing a certain way that rewards limping cruddy hands in verrrry early position.

A few things.I'm not sure I need to be concerned about weakly played sets or two pair until the board pairs. My straight will take out both those hands without a paired board. Maybe I'm too much of a noob, but this seems like we are playing too scared being concerned about those hands.As far as Q's being in other people's hands. Again, unless I'm mistaken, that doesn't matter. The cards are predetermined with the shuffle, and we don't need to discount any outs for that reason, technically...... Yes, I've come to like suited connectors. Too much? probably. But these hands can be big winners because they are well hidden.

[Sefaje 0]

A few things.I'm not sure I need to be concerned about weakly played sets or two pair until the board pairs. My straight will take out both those hands without a paired board. Maybe I'm too much of a noob, but this seems like we are playing too scared being concerned about those hands.As far as Q's being in other people's hands. Again, unless I'm mistaken, that doesn't matter. The cards are predetermined with the shuffle, and we don't need to discount any outs for that reason, technically...... Yes, I've come to like suited connectors. Too much? probably. But these hands can be big winners because they are well hidden.

Yes, but your reason for calling is to make the best hand. I'm saying that just as you need to be concerned about spades, you need to be concerned about full-houses. If the board pairs the turn, then there's no point in continuing. If the turn is a Queen, great, but then a board pair on the river could kill your hand. So this is something that should concern you. It is scared, but you are drawing to just a straight on a board with lots of high cards where with 4 way action, broadway is still very vulnerable. I hate drawing to such a vulnerable hand, especially OOP, especially when a spade or board-pair is very scary.And about the Q's being in other people's hands, I know you don't have to discount outs, but come on. AQ/QQ/KQ/QJs/etc are all very possible holdings here. I would consider it an error to NOT consider at least ~1-1.5 queens as gone here. The Qspade really doesn't help you. So I feel like you're drawing to about 2 outs. Then factor in the board pair/spade scariness and your bad position, and your EV is verrry low in this pot.

[Zach6668 513]

Yes, but your reason for calling is to make the best hand. I'm saying that just as you need to be concerned about spades, you need to be concerned about full-houses. If the board pairs the turn, then there's no point in continuing. If the turn is a Queen, great, but then a board pair on the river could kill your hand. So this is something that should concern you. It is scared, but you are drawing to just a straight on a board with lots of high cards where with 4 way action, broadway is still very vulnerable. I hate drawing to such a vulnerable hand, especially OOP, especially when a spade or board-pair is very scary.And about the Q's being in other people's hands, I know you don't have to discount outs, but come on. AQ/QQ/KQ/QJs/etc are all very possible holdings here. I would consider it an error to NOT consider at least ~1-1.5 queens as gone here. The Qspade really doesn't help you. So I feel like you're drawing to about 2 outs. Then factor in the board pair/spade scariness and your bad position, and your EV is verrry low in this pot.

You're wrong.We're drawing to 3 outs, plus a backdoor flush draw. There's no more analysis than that.We don't worry about the board being paired, because it ISN'T. We aren't calling here because we intend on going to the river. We are calling here to make our 3 outer, and to get money in while we are ahead, if we make it on the turn, but lose on the end to a boat, that's not a bad thing, as long as most of the money goes in while we are a significant favorite. We call here to make a hand on the turn. If we miss, we c/f unless again, we are giving 15-1 or whatever we need in pot+implied, and the board didn't pair, flush didn't come, etc.Also, a spade or board pair isn't scary on the turn, because all we have is jack-high. We c/f. We invested 3 BBs on the flop.... big deal.

[pokerfan1080 0]

Yes, but your reason for calling is to make the best hand. I'm saying that just as you need to be concerned about spades, you need to be concerned about full-houses. If the board pairs the turn, then there's no point in continuing. If the turn is a Queen, great, but then a board pair on the river could kill your hand. So this is something that should concern you. It is scared, but you are drawing to just a straight on a board with lots of high cards where with 4 way action, broadway is still very vulnerable. I hate drawing to such a vulnerable hand, especially OOP, especially when a spade or board-pair is very scary.And about the Q's being in other people's hands, I know you don't have to discount outs, but come on. AQ/QQ/KQ/QJs/etc are all very possible holdings here. I would consider it an error to NOT consider at least ~1-1.5 queens as gone here. The Qspade really doesn't help you. So I feel like you're drawing to about 2 outs. Then factor in the board pair/spade scariness and your bad position, and your EV is verrry low in this pot.

I'm a weak-tight noob as it is. However, I fail to see the need to worry about losing a 75/25 if the Q, other than the Qs, hits the turn.I think those are odds we need to get all our money in the middle with if our Q hits.

[Sefaje 0]

i have to disagree. the value of your draw decreases when the chances of your hand holding up when it hits are lower.the spades and possible board pairs decreases what is already a crappy draw OOP, and in this specific hand, our opponents are fairly likely to hold our outs in their hands.I realize that we're only looking to get money in while ahead on the turn, but if we only win 67% of the time we hit our miracle on the turn, which is somewhere around a 2 outer, .67x2 = a 1.34 outer. i dont like saying "we're only looking to get it in ahead" and ignoring the chance that we lose even if we hit our card.see your odds are like 7:1 right now, and you're like 16:1 to hit a queen. implied odds dont make up for this huge gap, especially when we can still lose the pot afterwards.

[Zach6668 513]

i have to disagree. the value of your draw decreases when the chances of your hand holding up when it hits are lower.the spades and possible board pairs decreases what is already a crappy draw OOP, and in this specific hand, our opponents are fairly likely to hold our outs in their hands.I realize that we're only looking to get money in while ahead on the turn, but if we only win 67% of the time we hit our miracle on the turn, which is somewhere around a 2 outer, .67x2 = a 1.34 outer. i dont like saying "we're only looking to get it in ahead" and ignoring the chance that we lose even if we hit our card.

Holy double taxation batman.It's a 4.5 outer, when you count the BDFD, and THREE clean outs.If you want to do your stupid .67 thing, then go ahead, but there's no guarantee anyone even has a set, or a flush draw.Frankly, this is a bad argument.We can't factor in RIO, because those only refer to when we hit our card, but are still behind. Since we aren't even counting the Qs as an out, then it doesn't matter. All that matter is if we do hit our non spade queen, and get it in vs anything, we'll be ahead, and we'll be putting a substantial amount of money in as a favorite, all for a 3 BB flop peel.

[Sefaje 0]

Hmm. okay, 4.5 outer. I don't like counting the BDFD because it's not the nut-draw and we'll rarely chase it depending on what the turn action is, but okay.I think the key is, you guys are 100% against possibly discounting your outs. And I feel like in this pot, it's very likely, based on our opponents' action, that a Queen or two would be in someone's hand already. It fits into too many people's possible holdings.If you factor in the other dangers of this board (spades, fullhouse, split pot) and our out of position-ness, I don't think that calling even 3BB here will gain win money in the long run. The double taxation you talked about is just me at first subtracting 1.5 Queens, then the chance that we lose even if we hit our hand. You don't calculate outs "to get it in with the best hand." Pretend you were getting 100:30 on a call for a 10% chance to get 200 more in as a 70% fav.90% you lose 307% you win 3003% you lose 230lose 13 each time you callyou're just saying "yeah we lose 3 when we miss our draw but we get to get a lot of money in as a fav when we hit." if you use that logic in the example i just gave, you'd accidentally calculate it as +EV

[dms26 3]

Why not raise? Although a raise may thin the field when we really don't want to at this point. Until we hit the straight I guess we prefer more people putting money in the pot.

A raise would be really bad, against 1 player I can see raising a weak bet but not against 3. I won't say too much about preflop since you did call, but I'm not limping that early with JTs. It's a pretty hand but becomes a lot harder to play OOP. I would also lean towards a fold on the flop because there are still 3 other people in the hand, it seems a flush draw is likely from one of them. Plus you have no overs, I would just dump it here.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Ok, Zach and Sefaje have covered the important parts. They're actually both right. Here's the deal as I see it.Reverse implied odds count to you drawing to a hand that cannot win as well as being redrawn out on. Here, they are a marginal consideration IMO because you're only seeing one more card and you know what your 3 clean outs are. If you make the nuts on the turn, you'll be betting enough to make it a mistake for any draws to continue.The odds of someone holding a Q are possible, but cannot be considered. That actually adds value to our draw becuase if we do hit, other players will improve their hands as well and we will get paid off better. In fact, we hope a player holds the Qs, since we weren't counting that as an out anyway.As for the BDFD not being the nut draw, that doesn't matter. If we runner runner diamonds (somehow seeing the river) and make a flush and lose to a higher flush, that's like a super cooler and I don't really worry about that.As played, I'm calling the flop here. If there was a chance that the pot could get raised behind you, you'd fold. You close the action. You're drawing to the nuts. Take a shot.

[mtdesmoines 2]

As played, I'm calling the flop here. If there was a chance that the pot could get raised behind you, you'd fold. You close the action. You're drawing to the nuts. Take a shot.

No one has claimed this pot yet. So I don't like it, but this is probably what I end up doing, too.

[No_Neck 0]

If I am closing the action and I am drawing to the nuts, I will call this most of the time. The only reason I wouldn't is if everyone was really short...

[Sefaje 0]

Ok, Zach and Sefaje have covered the important parts. They're actually both right. Here's the deal as I see it.Reverse implied odds count to you drawing to a hand that cannot win as well as being redrawn out on. Here, they are a marginal consideration IMO because you're only seeing one more card and you know what your 3 clean outs are. If you make the nuts on the turn, you'll be betting enough to make it a mistake for any draws to continue.The odds of someone holding a Q are possible, but cannot be considered. That actually adds value to our draw becuase if we do hit, other players will improve their hands as well and we will get paid off better. In fact, we hope a player holds the Qs, since we weren't counting that as an out anyway.As for the BDFD not being the nut draw, that doesn't matter. If we runner runner diamonds (somehow seeing the river) and make a flush and lose to a higher flush, that's like a super cooler and I don't really worry about that.As played, I'm calling the flop here. If there was a chance that the pot could get raised behind you, you'd fold. You close the action. You're drawing to the nuts. Take a shot.

Why not? I feel like we need to use all the information we have. The possibility of any of our outs being dead is very serious. This isn't the difference between 13 outs and 12 or 11, this is the difference between 3 outs and 2 or 1. The chance of us splitting this pot also nudges me towards a fold. I don't see how anyone can argue that our opponents aren't fairly likely to hold a Q, or how that information is useless once we have it. I'm not saying that any time you fear someone holds one of your outs you should majorly discount your draw, but if even one queen is out of the deck, which is real likely, then that's 1/3 of the value of our draw gone.I agree with you about the Qs in someone's hand adding to our value though. Except anything that would play after that would have a redraw against us

[Acid_Knight 2]

Why not? I feel like we need to use all the information we have. The possibility of any of our outs being dead is very serious. This isn't the difference between 13 outs and 12 or 11, this is the difference between 3 outs and 2 or 1. The chance of us splitting this pot also nudges me towards a fold. I don't see how anyone can argue that our opponents aren't fairly likely to hold a Q, or how that information is useless once we have it. I'm not saying that any time you fear someone holds one of your outs you should majorly discount your draw, but if even one queen is out of the deck, which is real likely, then that's 1/3 of the value of our draw gone.I agree with you about the Qs in someone's hand adding to our value though. Except anything that would play after that would have a redraw against us

What I'm getting at is there isn't possibly enough information that has been given away in the hand to discount our outs because we fear someone holds a Q. It's not like it's a multiway pot, we have a gutshot draw needing the A to complete it and we feel strongly that one of our opponents holds AA or AK. We'd simply be guesisng here. We can't say "well, villain A probably has A with a good kicker, maybe a Q, so I should deduct half an our just in case." It doesn't really work like that.Yeah, if the hand were more well defined, I'd consider the possibility that some of my very limited outs are already missing and I'd just fold. I don't think that's the case here however.

[linkwood 0]

i'm with zach and AK and the others here. closing the action, with that small of a bet, drawing to the nuts, i call. its such an easy hand almost because its either you hit your hand on the turn and bet accordingly, or you c/f. i don't see why we need to be afraid here.

[meservery 0]

1 - So hero calls and turns one of the safe queens.Lead? And for how much?2 - Hero calls and turns the bad queenThen what?

[Acid_Knight 2]

1 - So hero calls and turns one of the safe queens.Lead? And for how much?2 - Hero calls and turns the bad queenThen what?

In a 4 way pot, with that board, if you hit the bad Q, you shouldn't act like you hit your hand at all since more often than not, you're drawing dead.

[linkwood 0]

1 - So hero calls and turns one of the safe queens.Lead? And for how much?2 - Hero calls and turns the bad queenThen what?

1 - Lead for about 20. Too many draws, so you need to protect your hand. But also, with so many big cards you could easily get paid off by worse hands, perhaps even raised. 2 - I would be shocked if there wasn't someone in that 4 way pot with a flush draw. If the Qs comes then i think you have to c/f.

[Sefaje 0]

Running some quick numbers on this...You'll miss your 3 outer 93.62% of the time. So 93.62% x -3= -$2.81You'll hit it 6.38%. So the 6.38 % you hit, you need to make enough to make up for 93.62x-3.So +2.81 / 6.84% = $44----Will you have $44 of equity after hitting your 3 outer? The pot is currently $21. Assuming we will be against a naked flush draw only(56s for example), no sets or two pair, we're 80% to win. That means the pot must reach at LEAST $70 heads up against a naked flush draw. Which means we'd each have to put $23 (>pot) into the pot. That's not happening. If we are able to play against a set of Aces and a flush draw, then we're 60% to win. In which case we'd need to pot to reach 73$, and that's assuming no river action when we're ahead/behind. This requires a smaller bet, and actually being up against a set of aces is really our best case scenario as any bet we'd make to achieve our necessary equity would drive out a flush draw.Fold. We'd have to hit our perfect card AND get two callers at least, and then put $0 in on the river when we're behind. We're OOP. This makes playing this hand profitably enough to call very difficult. We're only really getting paid off all the way by a set. Two pair won't come along(and isn't very likely, hand like this will raise this flop most of the time. I think we're against a combination of one pair hands, straight draws, and flush draws) and a flush draw won't pay us off enough to reach our necessary equity. No one has showed enough interest in this pot to pay off what we'd need, and unless someone has played two pair or a set verrrry poorly on the flop, we're not gonna be able to get enough money in the pot on the turn. If we do bet small and try to get money in on the river also, then that's poor play that gives someone odds to outdraw us. And what we're trying to avoid with this hand is tough decisions OOP without the nuts.We don't want to call, hit our card, and then win the $21 pot. That's a disaster getting 7:1 to draw at 14:1.This post also assumes that we'd never split the pot with QJs, JTs, a different JT, etc. The possibility of splitting even with JT murders our equity, not to mention a flush draw with a J or T that could split/win on the river. Also, this post assumes we have 3 whole outs. Which I feel in this pot, although others disagree, that with 4 way action here, a queen or two is likely to be in someone's hand.

[No_Neck 0]

Running some quick numbers on this...You'll miss your 3 outer 93.62% of the time. So 93.62% x -3= -$2.81You'll hit it 6.38%. So the 6.38 % you hit, you need to make enough to make up for 93.62x-3.So +2.81 / 6.84% = $44----

I agree to all of that, but there are also benefits when you hit that card and people see that you called with a gutshot. METAGAME my friend.