shpaget, on Friday, March 16th, 2007, 3:51 PM, said:
It sent out a brief and clear message that your initial response to his post had the general pompous tone that most of the "I'm too good for this" 2+2'ers use when they answer some noob. Then he went on to read that your reasoning was pretty much way off. As for your very simple series of questions. Here is what I think:Does villain, or does he not, make this play with AK, AQ, JJ and TT? Or just AA and KK? Does he reraise pf with 99, 88 or 98?
We don't know. He hasn't reraised preflop at all this tourney..all we know is that he's been around poker way before it was huge and his aggression has mostly been post flop. Do all the times you pick off a cb with a c/r outweigh the times you are beat?
essentially, no.. say you pick off the c-bet with a c/r 50% of the time, then that 50% of the time you're winning 5200 and your stack will be at 23k or so, the other 50% of the time it'll be at around 10k, if you check fold you're still somewhere around 16.5k , at this point in the tourney the chips you lose by winning the hand far outweigh the significance of the chips you win by pushing him out on the flop. Basically, you can do just as much playing with 16k than with 23k but you can't really keep playing too many hands with 10k, if I think I'm good enough to fold this hand and still chip back up by seeing cheap flops then I should probably just fold. That being said, had someone told me "in 1 hr your table will include Gus, Alahei, Goehring, Muller, Thaler and Binger" I might have taken a different approach to the hand, if I had seen the hands villian played after I folded QQ, then too might I have just called the flop. In this case, nothing was known so I think folding is actually correct, in theory. Giving your loose image, can a good player with AK or TT or JJ think he's still ahead of you on the turn, if you called the flop and checked the turn, and bet at you again?
Not really, most good players check behind if they think they're ahead with something that marginal...on the other hand a good player CAN and probably will put me on QQ and try and rep AA with something like AK, or total rags. Can you not c/r here, and fold and still play effectively with over 50 big blinds?
this is not an online tourney..50bb's is okay but not what you want to have at any point in day 1. Not the way these guys run over you..Does check/calling define anything? Or does it just give a worse hand a free two-outer..or worse, a free six outer? And, by checking the turn, another free shot? Not to mention that if you are behind, and you do suckout, you need to extract another 10k+ out of him to make the play profitable.
that's just way wrong, in theory and logically, I don't really wan't to get into it though. Does a preflop re-reraise narrow villain's range?
who cares? why would I wan't to commit 5k more preflop to win 1600 and not define his hand at all....I think he's almost NEVER 4 bet shoving AA and KK here, so when he smooth calls then I'm 100% screwed, and now I have the lead in a big pot without even seeing a flop yet..no thank you...also, what if he decides to smooth call with AK? And what if he 4 bet shoves on me? even if I know he's almost never doing it with AA or KK I can't call, because I have 50bb's + left and I can for sure pick a better spot. So imo, 3 betting pre is about the worst you can do, and I think the other 3 options are very close, and they're all definately arguable..I think folding might be the best considering it is a 10k tourney with 20k stacks and 1 hr levels, I think check/calling is a close 2nd but at the same time it's the only one that can win us the hand with relative safety.. it can also spew 2200 when we get bluffed on the turn or v-bet on the river (cuz once he checks the turn we have to call the river). I think c/r'ing is the way that will MOST likely win us the hand but that's like saying "open shoving 25bb's with A10 is the best way to steal the blinds"... sure it is, but it isn't correct because its too much to risk for too little to gain. Does a flop lead not define villain's hand...or will he raise you with all the same hands he would have cb with?
no.... most likely yes.And yes, if I'm check folding that flop but calling a preflop raise I'm mostly playing for set value, I don't think I'd fold any pair preflop in that situation, I might not even fold any suited connectors which oddly enough I'd like to have in that spot more than any pair b/c I can easily flop a draw, and 2 pr is almost just as valuable in that situation as a set. And if the flop comes AKQ, I might not check/fold but I will proceed with caution, it really has nothing to do with the hand that was played for a lot of reasons.