Eight_Tabler, on Thursday, March 8th, 2007, 8:55 AM, said:
I don't think you can fold here; you're draw is too strong. I either call or push.I probably push in this spot. You described the SB as very loose, so there is a decent chance he was betting with air and representing an overpair on a ragged flop. With no reads I put EP on 88, 99, TT or a draw, and hopefully not a set since he didn't raise the flop. Without a set it will be difficult for him to call a push for all his chips...Unless one of them flopped a set, you're in a virtual race anyways with your 12 outs. And even against a set you're not even close to dead. Given that the SB is very loose I think we have a lot of FE here; push.My second choice would be call, and see what happens on the turn. This a little safer since EP could definitely have a set, but I hate having to call with no FE on the turn if the SB pushes his last 700 - we will be committed to call that much with our 12 outs, since the pot will be at least 2300. Then again, if the SB moves all in on the turn, and EP moves over the top all in, I think then we can fold our draw; so it is a safer play to just call the flop. I'd rather be in there gambling though... Push the flop. I'd probably actually make a substantial raise that shows I'm committed to the pot on the flop (2000 or so), since pushing does sort of look like a draw to most players.
I think with the small blind being loose we have close to 0 fold equity here, there is no chance he folds and over pair, or any pair for that matter, I would even expect him to call with AK here possibly. The major concern in this hand is the EP guy. I am most concerned about his range of hands and the amount of fold equity I have against him.