62 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

You are in a one table single table satellite that pays just the one winner. Of the 10 remaining players you are now the short stack with about 80,000 in chips, with blinds at 3000-6000 with an ante. You pick up two red jacks in first position and make it 18,000 to go leaving you with about 60,000. I'm in the big blind and call you. The flop comes 9-6-2 all clubs. I move all in on you and it's up to you.

[blake738]

I'm pretty new to this, so I'm probably wrong, but I would call. If I was short stacked, with 2 jacks I would have probably moved all in before the flop, but since I didn't, I would still have to call. You have probably either got the flush or are on a draw, or possibly just trying to represent that you have it. But since it's a satellite tourament, and there's only one winner I'd need to make a move, and since I still have top pair I would have to call. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[DemonDeac]

You still have 10xBB if you fold this hand. I think folding is the better option and wait for a better spot to put all your chips in. If the flush wasn't already made, your opponent is probably at least drawing to that 4th club and his club making him at least a king high flush. So hes got the 9 outs to the flush and the 3 other outs for the overcard to pair his king or better. So he's got 12 outs with 2 cards to come. I think folding and waiting for a better spot is the best option in this case.

[theresa113]

FOLD! I would love to give all of you some intellectual reasoning that would make everyone go "wow, Theresa is one smart chick" but all I can say is from experience, I use to call situations like this and I always got burned. I [size=18]ABSOLUTELY HATE JACKS! They look so pretty, like they have some importance, but that flop is dangerous and not because someone can have the flush, but because of all of the other possibilities.1. Your opponent could have a set of 6's (or 2's, or 9's.)2. Your opponent could have 2 pair, like a pair of 9's and a pair of 6's.3. Your opponent could have a straight draw (think about how many times you have played 7-8 suited, because after all, it is a connector)4. Could my opponent be soft playing a pair of Kings, Queens or Aces? Maybe, probably not but I see it done more than I am comfortable with. 5. Yeah, your opponent could have the flush or worse, and ace of clubs and catch an ace on the turn or the river or get another club. So, what can I get to help me out that won't help my opponent... another jack? I already have half of them. Good chance with the other 10 players that some one laid down a jack 5 off suit (I seem to get that hand all of the time). So what really are my chances?I really suck at math, I will be the first one to say so. I look at cards as pieces to a puzzle and to me it looks like there are just more middle pieces than end pieces to go around. I raised, the other person re-raised, would I be calling on ego or do I have the best hand? I can tell you that every time I ignore this question, I get burned. I think I have the nuts because I have a higher pair than what is on the board but do I? Can I come back with the stack I have? This is a tough one but my thinking is that I should fold.( Yeah, I know I say I use to hold onto the jacks. But truth be told, I did so last night! And yes, I was out of the game. It was a 10 person tournament, no sattelite though, just a friendly "practice" game. I thought the guy was bluffing. Guess what he had? A set! It takes a really long time for me to learn! :oops: )

[Metaphysician]

I fold.My reason for this is that it's simply DANIEL NEGREANU who is moving in on me. Dan will call all sorts of raises with hands that might've hit that flop hard. Daniel's so unpredictable that it's not worth the risk. You still have 10 big blinds in your stack so you're short, but not desperate. I just think the risk is too big going up against Daniel. Sure, he's absolutely good enough to be bullying me out at this point, and he very well may be. But there's also a good chance he has, at the very least, a great draw.

[sxz18]

I think the correct move is to fold. It's not really too close of a decision in my opinion. Annie Duke folded her hooks in the Tournament of Champions. There are simply too many hands that could draw out on you at this point. Daniel could have hit that flop in a lot of ways. It's hard to imagine him putting you all-in right away with a flush as he may or may not trap you. However, he could very well have a hand like A9 with the ace of clubs. There are many coinflip hands right now and it's not worth the risk to double up especially if it only pays first place. If you fold, you have plenty of chips still. You are not crippled quite yet.

[rxq]

CalllYou probably have A-K or A-Q when you called me. Now I have to fiqure if you have a four flush, but I am figuring you have at least the A of clubs. But also if you made the flush with the A, you would slow play it and try and get more chips from me. If you slow play me and I smell a trap then you still win the pot. So I think you have a four flush and call.But then again, that is what you think, I may think, and I fell for your trap cause you have the flush.

[Doorknob]

I call. I am shortstacked, and I need to double up soon. The blinds/antes are 12k per round, so I have to go all in in the next two rounds. The chances of me picking up a monster are slim. The chances of me going all in and getting called by a better hand are good. I think the chance of me winning this hand is around 45%, but there's already 36k in the pot, so I call. 3/9 of the time you have me crushed (set,flush,over-pair, two-pair)2/9 its a coinflip(overcards with flush draw) 3/9 I am slightly ahead(vs a pair with a flush draw)1/9 I have you crushed (just a pair, overcards, or a complete bluff)The hand that I am really afraid of are trips 99,66,22. Its not likely that you have an overpair, you would probably re-raise before the flop. Your push indicates that you don't have a low or a high flush, you wouldn't call that big of a raise from a shortstack with low suited connectors, not enough implied odds there. Same goes for two-pair, with that garbage flop, its unlikely that you would call 18k to get my 78k. It is likely that you have two overcards with a club like Ace of clubs and Jack of diamonds, with this it is a coinflip for me. The other likely possibility is that you think I have high cards with a club, and you're trying to get that 36k in the pot with your pocket pair. With that garbage flop, you think your pocket pair is good. Plus if I do have a real monster like AA, KK, you still have that flush draw, which is very likely to be alive. You still have an out.

[sxz18]

I don't think you can correctly assess the situation by saying 3/9 of the time he has you crushed, 2/9 of the time it's a coinflip, etc. You cannot put numbers on what percent chance he has you beat or you have him beat. Also, you stated you probably have 45% chance to win. Assuming this is correct, why would you call? You have less than 55% of your chips committed to the pot...calling would be a mathematical error. Once again, I would fold because I honestly feel that I have higher than 55% chance to win it all if I fold. I would not gamble it all on a coinflip.

[Doorknob]

If you're 45% favorite (thats hypotethetical), then pot odds say call. Keep in mind that there's 36k+antes already in the pot, so when you call rest of your 62k stack, you're not winning 124k, you're winning 150k. So you only need 40% confidence to call. However in the end poker is a game of incomplete information, and that 45% chance of winning is just a guess of mine. If I was playing Daniel, I would go for it. There's no way I can outplay him, so I am happy to take a coinflip. This is better than being blinded out, or going all in with a marginal hand like AT, and getting called by AQ later. If I was playing some guy in my local casino, I would probably fold, and find a better spot.

[LeeDanger]

I'd like to know what the other chip counts are. single table satelitte with ten people left and you are short stacked with 80,000??? To me this is a weird situation. No one has busted yet and being the short stack with still a relatively large amount of chips for being in last place. This is a tough decision for me to make. When I play satelittes I like to take chances since only the winner pays. I voted for call but now I'm not so sure if that's really what I would do, I'm really torn on this question.

[Newbs]

Well... MY first thoughts were:When told I was playing with Daniel at the table "How the heck am I playing with him!?"When told that Daniel went all-in on me "Son of a $*@^#!!" Those helpfull thoughts aside, first I would keep in mind how Daniel likes to play "trash hands" or low cards, and if he saw me bet before the flop, I figure that he thinks he can outplay me post flop just as much as he could have a "good" starting hand. The 4 to a flush posiblity is very real, as are the chances of some overcards. He could just as well figure I missed my flop with a couple of high cards and try to get me off my hand. I lean towards calling, with keeping in mind that first place is the only one paid, and I need to do some damage to get first. I understand all the reasons I could be against great drawing hands... dunno... maybe I just want to call Daniel. :PAnyway, I hope that the answer we get is, "Fold. I have 2 pair. Duh."**** Edit #1 ****See... now I have changed my mind already. Some how, some way, I forgot that I had my most hated hand in all of poker... and I think I would get rid of it because of the nightmares it gives me. J/J is a scary hand, and I think I just might get rid of it.One could fault me for indecisiveness...

[Jdawg]

I think you fold. The pre-flop raise shortstacked for 18,000 in first position screams of pocket pair (10s, Js, Qs) and Daniel, being Daniel, has probably put you on one of those hands. Now Daniel is first to act on the flop and he raises you all in. Why would he do this if he knows you have a high pocket pair? I think its because Daniel is looking for your call, hoping you can't get away from your pocket pair shortstacked. Daniel probably has a flush, 2 pair, or a straight flush draw at best for you.The only way you might call here is if you think that Daniel may have put you on overcards which is doubtful because he would move in on you with any pair or draw as well, in which case, you may -still- want to fold.Also I think knowing that Daniel can play a wide variety of hands from the BB is useless. Because he knows that you know that, and can use that to exploit his table image, another way to try and get you to call him on the possibility that he has a "trash hand".Yes, if you fold, your even more shortstacked, but I really think that Daniel has you beat.Edit: Reading other peoples posts, I don't think looking at this from a mathematical standpoint based on odds is the right way to go about it. What does it matter if you make the right mathematical play and still lose the hand? If you call and lose, your out. This isn't a cash game where you can re-fuel saying to yourself that in the long run that play will win you money. Tournaments are about survival. And if your going to make your stand, shortstacked, its always better to be the one pushing in all his chips than to be the one calling with all his chips unless you have a monster.

[Konidias]

I would fold. Three low clubs on the flop? JJ is a pretty hand but it's not that seductive.I'm guessing Daniel could have a low flush, attempting to scare away anyone with a higher club who might get their flush on the turn or river... Either that, or he could have A:club: , and even worse, bullets with one of them being the club. He could have any club at all and possibly hit his flush. I have little to nothing that would really benefit me on the turn or river, except miracle jacks.The situation looks bleak. I get sour whenever I see a flop in which I don't see at least one color match at all. I consider it rather unlucky, and I'd have to say I would wait for a better time to push the rest of my chips in.It's better to be the aggressor when you're low on chips, instead of having to get backed into a corner and hand your chips over. I know I'm not playing well when the majority of my big hands involve me constantly calling the other guy.

[spacemonkey]

Hmm, very tricky Danny. It's pretty tough to figure out what he's got here. A flush is possible but unlikely. He could be trying to protect a strong hand from a 4-flush (i.e. a set or two pair). I think the most likely hand is something like A:club: 9:heart: or K:club: T:heart: both of which are virtual coinflips. With about 40k already in the pot we are getting about 5:3 on the call.First off I try to get Daniel to talk because hey, that'd be fun and maybe I could get a little feel for his hand. Maybe, it's worth a shot. The main hand I'd be worried about is a set of nines or sixes. But I'd go ahead and call because I think Daniel's trying to apply pressure with a marginal hand. There are no second prizes so there's no point to just hanging around. Those blinds and ante's are probably going to go up pretty quickly given the nature of these one-table satellites so take a chance while you still have the chips to make an impact.

[MathDoc]

Is this the EXACT situation he had against Annie Duke in the ESPN Tournament of Champions?Just wondering. Annie folded. I would also fold. I guess looking back on it, the fold worked out OK for Annie... ;-)

[theresa113]

Quote

I'm in the big blind and call you

You know, I didn't pick up on that I was playing against Daniel. Silly me. However, my answer would still be the same, I would fold.

[tekn0wledg]

Normally I would fold in this situation, however in this instance I am going to call because I am short stacked and I want to make a shot at doubling up, and I want you to know that you won't be running me over at anytime with a scary flop. If you have the flush, or a draw to the nut flush, that's great, but at this point I need to make a move to get a larger stack and make a statement for my table image.

[JL]

I'd call. If you had AA, KK, or even QQ, you probably would have raised preflop. If you had a made flush, it would be in your best interest to check to the preflop raiser. Your all in bet tells me you're trying to protect a flush draw or a worse hand than my Jacks. Sure you could have hit a set, but since your playing against the short stack, you probably would have pushed pre-flop with any pair and put me to the decision right then. So I could rule out that possibility too.You probably defended your blind with an A9 and have top pair with outs if your nines are no good. Even though you've got outs, if my A9 read was correct, you've 14 outs so I'm still ahead. I'm getting all my money in when I think I have an advantage, no matter how slight it may be. Plus I'd always have a story to tell. Either "Daniel doubled me up" or "I got busted out by Daniel N." Both would make for good stories :-)