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Monster Draw. What Would You Do?


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#1 dead money

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 03:19 PM

Ok so I cant get this hand out of my head from last night. I dont know if I made the right play or not. Its bothering me.I was at a 1/2 nl game at the Borgata. The table was full and I was in the cutoff with 53 of diamonds. UTG makes it 7 to go and gets 2 callers. I called and the 2 blinds both called. There is now 38 in the pot(42 minus the 4 rake). The flop comes Kc 6d 4d. Good flop for me. SB thinks for a second and pushes(he was getting pretty frustrated as I watched his stack dwindle slowly the whole time I was there) for 64. BB almost beats sb into the pot with his stack of 123(He was a very aggressive player and I had seen him push all in on the flop 3 times in the last hour). Everyone folds to me. I thought for about a minute before finally folding showing my hand face up and complaining about how I wish I had a better read on the players. The other players thought I was nuts. They didnt know how I could fold a draw that big.My reasoning could have been flawed but it made sense at the time, so I folded. The main problem for me in this hand was that I couldnt put the players on a small enough range of hands. The sb could have been pushing with a draw or a hand as weak as top pair. The bb had made this move before and I was sure he didnt have a hand everytime he did it. My range for him was anywhere from a flush draw to a set. I felt that there was a good chance that I was in pretty bad shape. I could easily be up against a set and a higher flush draw. A hand like KQ of diamonds was def not of the question for either player to play the hand like this. I felt that there was too good a chance that a lot of my outs were dead and that I wasnt in nearly as good of shape as it appeared I was in. Thats why I folded.Unfortunately, I was actually in the best scenario as the bb had KQ no diamonds. The sb didnt show, but I know he didnt have a flush draw because it hit on the river. Im pretty sure, with my reasoning, that folding was a good option. Im just not sure if I was out thinking myself on this particular hand.Oh and I forgot to mention, my stack size was just under 700 so I had them covered.
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#2 Naismith

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 03:27 PM

I need a lot of evidence that my flush draw is dead to fold his hand. I don't think you should make a habit out of folding here. You're in such good shape against way too many hands.
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#3 Acid_Knight

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 03:36 PM

You are getting 1.83 to 1 on your money.I'm going to ignore the odds that you beat the guy with $123 and lose to the guy with $64 becuase it makes things more complicated.You should not fold here. Why?1. You know for a fact that you have at least 8 outs for the nuts, since your OESD is the straight flush draw, so you're actually hogging outs from anyone who did have a flush draw.2. With his small stack, the SB could push any number of hands here, especially if he is frustrated.3. The BB may be on a pair or a draw, but since his stack wasn't very big, if he was gonna play the hand, he was gonna play all in.4. You know the price that you get to see the rest of the cards for. You cannot be bet off of the hand and you cannot lose anymore than $123.5. Even if one player has K :club: Q :D and the other player has pocket 6s, you're still only a 3-1 dog and that's pretty much the worst case.Obviously nobody will have a smaller flush draw than you, but I think folding here is bad. You play hands like 3 :D 5 :D to hit flops like you did. The action means that you need to improve, but both players could easily be holding a king, or one player could have a set and another player could have AK or something, and in that case you're going to win ~44% of the time.I think you made a pretty big mistake folding here.

#4 David_Nicoson

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 03:53 PM

Edit: Acid Knight already made all of these points.You have 8 clean outs (6 of which are subject to redraw, granted) even if you are against bigger diamonds. This is a call.
Board: Kc 6d 4dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 32.447%	32.45% 	00.00% 			   293 			0.00   { 5d3d }Hand 1: 38.649%	38.65% 	00.00% 			   349 			0.00   { KsQh }Hand 2: 28.904%	28.90% 	00.00% 			   261 			0.00   { AdTd }
You really don't want to see a set AND higher diamonds, but even that's not too bad.
Board: Kc 6d 4dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 26.135%  26.14% 00.00% 			   708 			0.00   { 5d3d }Hand 1: 17.829%  17.83% 00.00% 			   483 			0.00   { KdQd }Hand 2: 56.035%  56.04% 00.00% 			  1518 			0.00   { 66 }

QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
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#5 mtdesmoines

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 06:04 PM

View Postdead money, on Thursday, February 22nd, 2007, 3:19 PM, said:

Ok so I cant get this hand out of my head from last night. I dont know if I made the right play or not. Its bothering me.I was at a 1/2 nl game at the Borgata. The table was full and I was in the cutoff with 53 of diamonds. UTG makes it 7 to go and gets 2 callers. I called and the 2 blinds both called. There is now 38 in the pot(42 minus the 4 rake). The flop comes Kc 6d 4d. Good flop for me. SB thinks for a second and pushes(he was getting pretty frustrated as I watched his stack dwindle slowly the whole time I was there) for 64. BB almost beats sb into the pot with his stack of 123(He was a very aggressive player and I had seen him push all in on the flop 3 times in the last hour). Everyone folds to me. I thought for about a minute before finally folding showing my hand face up and complaining about how I wish I had a better read on the players. The other players thought I was nuts. They didnt know how I could fold a draw that big.My reasoning could have been flawed but it made sense at the time, so I folded. The main problem for me in this hand was that I couldnt put the players on a small enough range of hands. The sb could have been pushing with a draw or a hand as weak as top pair. The bb had made this move before and I was sure he didnt have a hand everytime he did it. My range for him was anywhere from a flush draw to a set. I felt that there was a good chance that I was in pretty bad shape. I could easily be up against a set and a higher flush draw. A hand like KQ of diamonds was def not of the question for either player to play the hand like this. I felt that there was too good a chance that a lot of my outs were dead and that I wasnt in nearly as good of shape as it appeared I was in. Thats why I folded.Unfortunately, I was actually in the best scenario as the bb had KQ no diamonds. The sb didnt show, but I know he didnt have a flush draw because it hit on the river. Im pretty sure, with my reasoning, that folding was a good option. Im just not sure if I was out thinking myself on this particular hand.Oh and I forgot to mention, my stack size was just under 700 so I had them covered.
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#6 dead money

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 07:54 PM

View Postmtdesmoines, on Thursday, February 22nd, 2007, 6:04 PM, said:

As someone said to me a while back, "I break an arm getting my chips in." If you're GOING TO PLAY 3-5 sooted, you'd better be ready to BET 3-5 sooted.
But thats just it. I dont get to BET it. I have no fold equity. It might have been a bad fold, but Im not really happy about getting 1.83 to 1 with only 8 clean outs. I might have more outs, but its so much more possible to not with 2 players then with one. I think its closer then you guys think, but Im pretty sure you are right that a call was probably the correct play.
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#7 Sefaje

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 09:14 PM

View Postdead money, on Thursday, February 22nd, 2007, 5:19 PM, said:

I cant get this hand out of my head. I dont know if I made the right play or not. I was at a 1/2 nl game at the Borgata. The table was full and I was in the cutoff with 53 of diamonds. UTG makes it 7 to go and gets 2 callers. I called
Nope, you didn't make the right play. :club: I don't hate calling with suited connectors, but low ones are bad since you can't automatically count all your outs as clean.Anyway, what flop are you waiting for? You've got 8 outs to the nuts twice... Throw in the times you're the lone flushdraw, the times running two pair/trips win, and I break 2 arms and the dealer's face getting my chips in.

#8 Acid_Knight

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 09:39 PM

View Postdead money, on Thursday, February 22nd, 2007, 7:54 PM, said:

But thats just it. I dont get to BET it. I have no fold equity. It might have been a bad fold, but Im not really happy about getting 1.83 to 1 with only 8 clean outs. I might have more outs, but its so much more possible to not with 2 players then with one. I think its closer then you guys think, but Im pretty sure you are right that a call was probably the correct play.
When you KNOW that you have 8 outs and possibly as many as 15, you're playing the odds, not for fold equity. I think that it's pretty common that both players will turn over a hand like KQ here, or someone could have a set. The fact that both players were fairly short stacked is what makes this a call. If the stacks were bigger and you were getting the same odds, I might consider a fold. The problem was that if either player had a hand that he wanted to play, he had to go all in. These hands include top pair, 2 pair, sets, draws, everything.You're in good shape against the range (as illustrated above) and you don't need fold equity, just a friendly draw-out.

#9 dead money

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Posted 23 February 2007 - 06:20 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Thursday, February 22nd, 2007, 9:39 PM, said:

When you KNOW that you have 8 outs and possibly as many as 15, you're playing the odds, not for fold equity. I think that it's pretty common that both players will turn over a hand like KQ here, or someone could have a set. The fact that both players were fairly short stacked is what makes this a call. If the stacks were bigger and you were getting the same odds, I might consider a fold. The problem was that if either player had a hand that he wanted to play, he had to go all in. These hands include top pair, 2 pair, sets, draws, everything.You're in good shape against the range (as illustrated above) and you don't need fold equity, just a friendly draw-out.
But fold equity is something Im looking for when I call with this particular hand. I want to flop a big draw and get very aggressive to try and win the dead money. But that wasnt an option in this hand. I was just remarking to the other guy that I had no option to BET my hand. I didnt have a lot of time at the table of course to figure out what my chances were against the range of hands I thought were likely for both opponents. I guess I looked at the worst case scenario and made my decision. I feel I made a bad laydown now that I was able to look at it adn get some advice from you guys.
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#10 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 23 February 2007 - 06:52 AM

Folding this hand is a significantly big mistake. The thing is, as pointed out by another poster, even in the WORST of cases you aren't that bad off. If one player has a higher flush draw and the other a set, you STILL have eight outs to make your hand (or 6, not sure if you had the straight flush draw). Either way, if you make this fold and a flush draw ISN"T out there, it's a huge mistake, while if you call and someone does have a bigger flush draw, it's only a small mistake. Small mistakes are ok, big ones are the ones you need to avoid.
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#11 dead money

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Posted 26 February 2007 - 12:28 AM

View PostDanielNegreanu, on Friday, February 23rd, 2007, 6:52 AM, said:

Folding this hand is a significantly big mistake. The thing is, as pointed out by another poster, even in the WORST of cases you aren't that bad off. If one player has a higher flush draw and the other a set, you STILL have eight outs to make your hand (or 6, not sure if you had the straight flush draw). Either way, if you make this fold and a flush draw ISN"T out there, it's a huge mistake, while if you call and someone does have a bigger flush draw, it's only a small mistake. Small mistakes are ok, big ones are the ones you need to avoid.
Yea I see that now. I was playing for a worst case scenario. I do that sometimes and its something I need to work on.
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#12 NoBBiR

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Posted 18 March 2007 - 11:49 PM

View PostSefaje, on Thursday, February 22nd, 2007, 9:14 PM, said:

Nope, you didn't make the right play. :club: I don't hate calling with suited connectors, but low ones are bad since you can't automatically count all your outs as clean.Anyway, what flop are you waiting for? You've got 8 outs to the nuts twice... Throw in the times you're the lone flushdraw, the times running two pair/trips win, and I break 2 arms and the dealer's face getting my chips in.
Now thats comedy. Daniel and pretty much everyone else is right. Especially against two players that you have covered when you have a monster draw like this one, its a pretty big error to not get your money in. Most people know how you don't want to be up against two people with aces, but in cases with these types of hands, the more people the better. Thats exactly what you want because these are the kinds of hands you win behemoth pots with. You can pretty much guarantee with the sf draw that you have 8 clean outs in this big pot, and if the flush draw live you are the favorite against everything but a set.
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