River Bluffing.

[Lavitz 0]

Full Tilt PokerNo Limit Holdem Ring gameBlinds: $2/$45 playersConverterStack sizes:UTG: $414.10CO: $312.60Hero: $415SB: $311.70BB: $405Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with 2 folds, Hero raises to $12, SB folds, BB calls.Flop: :D ($26, 2 players)BB bets $20, Hero calls.Turn: ($66, 2 players)BB bets $44, Hero raises to $120, BB calls.River: ($306, 2 players)BB checks, Hero is all-in $263, Villian is 18/11/1.7. Very rocky it seems. I called on flop to take away later. Turn card was perfect. When he called the turn instead of pushing, I was fairly sure he was on a set rather then a small flush. I'm holding key card in hand, being the ace of spades. I dont like getting called on the turn but it sets up nice river bluff, which is another scare card for a set. He is never holding an 8 here, not that I even think he would call if he had one. I think based on his rockiness that he can release his set on the river for that push. Against a loose opponent I dont make this play. Even against a rock is it bad? What do you think?

[Snamuh 0]

I think there is nothing wrong with making a bluff here, assuming of course that you have the right image to pull it off (and your bankroll can handle it if it fails!). You raised the turn when the draws hit and it looks like the villain is showing weakness on the river.

[No_Neck 0]

seems like you explained your logic pretty well, and I don't disagree with any points. I don't like the flop call but thats poker.

[Scott3705 0]

I would think an important thing about your read is why do you perceive him as having weak-tight tendencies? Is it just PT, or doees he seem like he's getting run over a bit. If it's the latter he may be apt to call out of frustration. If it's PT, how many hands is your sample? 18/11 is very tight for a 5 handed game and I would think it would be important to understand how often he gets to showdown after he sees the flop. As for the flop, what do you do when your scare card blanks? It seems a miscalculation on your part that you think you could take away the hand on a dry turn if you caught a good scare card and still got called.

[Lavitz 0]

I would think an important thing about your read is why do you perceive him as having weak-tight tendencies? Is it just PT, or doees he seem like he's getting run over a bit. If it's the latter he may be apt to call out of frustration. If it's PT, how many hands is your sample? 18/11 is very tight for a 5 handed game and I would think it would be important to understand how often he gets to showdown after he sees the flop. As for the flop, what do you do when your scare card blanks? It seems a miscalculation on your part that you think you could take away the hand on a dry turn if you caught a good scare card and still got called.

Sample size is 150 hands. Goes to showdown about 30 percent of the time out of these. However, only folds his BB to steal on average of one in three times so obviously this could be blind defense. Correct? Also important to understand that he is a winning player. I usually multitable but whenever he turns over a hand, it's usually a winner in my short experience with him. I've also never seen him bluff although I haven't played with him a very long time. My major miscalculation was his strength on the flop. I didn't suspect he'd play a set like that (or two pair). Turn cleared it up though.I was planning on trying to take the pot from him on any overcard because he tends to go gunshy on any kind of scare cards even if they wouldn't make sense in your hand. Earlier fired A9o on 9xx board, checked turn when Q hit and checked river. Did same with JJ and Q7. If turn bricked a 2 or something low and he fired again then I reevaluate. Turn was key piece of info in hand then. Being a rock, I feel if any spade or paint hits then I can get him to lay down. An Ace might be tricky because then I have to wonder if he has A9. However, I feel no danger in an ace coming because due to his predictability he will be telling me his hand. If an ace hits and he fires anyways then we fold knowing 2 pair or a set based on previous play when he checked TP turned into 2nd pair on the turn. He would check if an ace beat his hand.As it occured, a scare card did hit and he bet anyway. Now I realize that means he has a strong hand. I've acquired what I was looking for. I hold ace of spades though and I don't think he was betting a smaller flush draw into me. I reraise 3X and he calls. Not what I wanted but I do have the nut flush draw for insurance, leaving me with a few outs. The only good thing about this is that I am fairly certain he would've pushed here with a smaller made flush. Now it looks like he is the one looking to perhaps fill up.River brings another scare card for a set, nevermind that it would make no sense for me to have an 8 in my hand. It is great for me in that it doesn't pair the board. He checks and I can only win the pot by betting. Obviously had to go big because he had a strong hand. I feel, as a rockish player, that he lays the set down here.If board pairs on river and he checks then I check behind stubbornly. If he bets, regardless of board pairing, I fold obviously.

[Sea Wasp 0]

The problem with this is that he may have what you are representing.

[bdc30 0]

I'm almost willing to bet that he called here. When you take a swing on the turn and he still stays with you even with a flush card there, you're not running him out of this pot I don't think.

[Lavitz 0]

The problem with this is that he may have what you are representing.

He can't have the nut flush if I'm holding the key card. He could have a lower flush, only hand I'm concerned with.

[Sea Wasp 0]

He can't have the nut flush if I'm holding the key card. He could have a lower flush, only hand I'm concerned with.

He doesn't need the nut flush to call you here. In fact, with your line i think you get called by alot more than a flush. Lets say you held AK or AQ of spades, would you flat call his flop lead? And would you raise his turn bet? Personally i don't like you line as everything about it screams bluff. Of course the board is so scary that you feel villain needs a strong flush to call, however a smart player that runs through this hand will likely be calling you with top set.

[NEtwowilldo 0]

Making the bluff based on your holding of a key card is a very advanced play, and IMO, more appropriate for PLO. You know he cant have the nuts, but, in general, no one would fold a king high flush with only three of the suit on board. In this hand however I can't put him on a low flush. If he has something like 5s6s, he is pushing on the turn, because he doesn't want to see another spade on the river. He also seems to be afraid of the straight possibility. I put him on a nine, maybe two pair.

[Acid_Knight 2]

He doesn't need the nut flush to call you here. In fact, with your line i think you get called by alot more than a flush. Lets say you held AK or AQ of spades, would you flat call his flop lead? And would you raise his turn bet? Personally i don't like you line as everything about it screams bluff. Of course the board is so scary that you feel villain needs a strong flush to call, however a smart player that runs through this hand will likely be calling you with top set.

First you say that the villain will call with a lot more than a flush. Then you say that he needs a strong flush to call. Which one is it?Also, nothing about how he played this hand screams of a bluff. I think it screams of exactly what he's trying to represent here, which are 2 big spades in the hole. If he thinks the villain has a set, why on earth would he raise the flop with 2 big spades and let himself get bet off of his draw? He wouldn't.Personally, I like dumping a hand like AQ on a board like that when a rock leads into you. He most likely has a set or a small overpair and you're relying on scare cards to fall to be able to bluff him off of a hand. Basically, you have no hand and are probably drawing dead and you're planning a bluff that can't work on its own, but needs specific cards to fall in order for it to be successful. It seems like an unnecessarily risky play in a pot where you really haven't invested anything. The pot is small, a rock leads into you, just dump it on the flop.Ok, so that being said, your play perfectly represents the hand that you're trying to represent. You're not flat calling on that dangerous board with an overpair, you'd raise. If you did indeed have a flush draw, you'd probably flat call the flop (in position, so as not to be bet off of the hand) and then make a modest raise on the turn when the flush card hits, all of which you did. One the river comes and does not pair the board, if you had a flush, with the pot as big as it is, you'd almost certainly push.Based on how things played out, it really seems to me that the villain has a set and he should probably dump it on the river. Your bets have told him that you have a flush. He stuck around on the turn becuase the odds weren't too bad to do so in hopes that he could boat up. When he doesn't, I'd imagine that he's gotta fold to that bet on the river.So, after calling on the flop, I like the line that you took to win the hand. The cards cooperated to get your mission accomplished, but I really think that the correct play here, pretty much every time, is to just bail out when he leads the flop.

[NEtwowilldo 0]

"probably drawing dead" ....?He has the nut flush draw on the turn he's not drawing dead no matter what the other guy has

[Naismith 0]

First you say that the villain will call with a lot more than a flush. Then you say that he needs a strong flush to call. Which one is it?

Unless I'm misreading, I believe he said the villain will call with more than a flush and that the OP believes the villain needs a strong flush. "Personally i don't like you line as everything about it screams bluff. Of course the board is so scary that you feel villain needs a strong flush to call, however a smart player that runs through this hand will likely be calling you with top set."I don't get in the habit of trying to push too many players off sets, but maybe it happens here. At the very least, I like your fortitude.

[Acid_Knight 2]

"probably drawing dead" ....?He has the nut flush draw on the turn he's not drawing dead no matter what the other guy has

When he calls the bet on the flop, if the villain has a set, he's relying on a runner runner flush as his only way to win the pot. That's pretty much drawing dead.