I think that it's safe to say that if we raise the river and then get three-bet, we are always behind.So we won't ever be folding the best hand in the raise-fold line.It's also safe to assume that if Villain is donk-bluffing, he will always fold to our raise.So we won't gain anything from raising the river in these situations.So the equation simply comes down to:How often will he bet-call with a lesser hand?
versus How often are we behind
?Nothing else usually matters.
Looks like villain is trying some sort of WA/WB line after the flop.He may have JJ, TT, or AK with one spade.
Yeah, JJ, TT are the hands we are hoping will bet-call us.There's not else that will.So determine if the odds of these hands are greater than an 22 or an oddly played Q or Flush.And then make your decision.Personally, my plan on the paired river was to get one more bet in...So even though Villain donk-bet this river for me, I count that as the bet I was planning on and just call down.--CM