14 replies to this topic

[copernicus]

Blinds 150/300

Hero is on the button with JdTh, stack is 2x average

UrMyTuition $3,920.00
Pdiddy100 $3,360.00 cutoff
Hero $12,240.00 button
Lightning007 $2,845.00 small blind
youngblood15 $5,360.00 big blind
dyalnfan25 $5,185.56
yykes $7,510.00
RICROC $12,645.00
Adam Juice $3,440.00

folded to cutoff who limps, I limp, blinds complete Pot 1200

Flop: Jh 8h 9d giving me top pair, oesd

Small blind all-in for 2545
Big blind all-in for 5060
cutoff folds

Main pot 6290
Side pot 2515

Hero call or fold?

[simo_8ball]

Looks like a easy fold. Maybe I'm missing something.

[ChrisRichey]

With the presence of the BB, I think it's a fold. We have a good stack at this point in the tourney, and may be drawing to 8 outs. I don't think we're getting the odds on this one.

[mk]

getting like 1.7:1, so you need somewhere in the neighborhood of 36% equity to call... you aren't there if someone has a set (pretty unlikely) or if someone flopped the joint - also unlikely. problem is, you're up against a flush draw and a better jack or two pair quite a bit, and the flush draw nabs a bunch of your outs. i'd probably muck it.

[Jam-Fly]

If the big stack moved in first, then the smaller stack called, I'd be more inclined to gamble. But atm, the SB could have any ten, but the BB has to have a legit hand (be it a big draw or a made hand)
I fold. Theres a good chance that alot of your outs are duplicated (e.g. SB may have a ten, 78 and JQ are possibly hands etc.

[bdc30]

Insta-muck.

Not sure even what you're considering here.

[Mercury69]

Call me crazy, but I'm calling here, putting the BB on high cards or middle pair and the shortstack on high card and a desperation push. Top pair with OESD is looking pretty good and at least one of these guys is going to the rail even if your top pair doesn't make for best hand. There's only two to a flush and Hero has the Th, so it seems unlikely that either opponent has AKor AQ of hearts. Would either guy make the call/raise with A9h or worse? I doubt it. A single high heart is probable, but that means you don't need to worry about a flush draw as much.

Hands that are beating you: AJ, KJ, QJ, JJ, J9, J8, 99, 88, 98. That's not very many hands, so I guess one needs to figure out if that's what your opp's have based on their betting and image.

Call and type "hold" repeatedly in the chat box...

[gobears]

I think that I'd fold here. One of the two blinds probably has you beat and the flush draw could kill some of your outs.

You still have an excellent stack if you fold here

[copernicus]

Results in white (of both posts so you dont need to go to the other Bodog 200k thread):

I folded the 45 hand. I was concerned that if I didnt hit the turn then Id be priced out for the river, and didnt expect that a free card was likely. When the A turned I had some doubt, because thinking more about it, if its the A that comes there are some pretty big implied odds.

I got it all in with the JT hand. I didnt see myself having less than 10 outs if I even needed them. I discounted flush draws because of the betting. A black 7 turned making the nut straight, then the Qh on the river made me a bit nervous, but there was no flush draw out there (J8 and <doh> A8). That hand let me go pretty deep in the tourney, but the J8 was pissed! Good read or lucky read, re the flush draw, which would cut my outs to unacceptable levels, but I was confident when I made it.

[Mercury69]

:-)

[DonkSlayer]

I think we could be as strong as 44% here, given the lack of stacks by the all-iners. I'm considering any 10, Q, or 7 to be good. I call.

[darkrider88]

I'm confused why you are discounting the flush draw. Why wouldn't a shorty push with the flush draw as a semi-bluff?

[darkrider88]

I'm confused why you are discounting the flush draw. Why wouldn't a shorty push with the flush draw as a semi-bluff?

edit: sorry about the double post

[Jam-Fly]

Results in white (of both posts so you dont need to go to the other Bodog 200k thread):


I got it all in with the JT hand. I didnt see myself having less than 10 outs if I even needed them. I discounted flush draws because of the betting. A black 7 turned making the nut straight, then the Qh on the river made me a bit nervous, but there was no flush draw out there (J8 and <doh> A8). That hand let me go pretty deep in the tourney, but the J8 was pissed! Good read or lucky read, re the flush draw, which would cut my outs to unacceptable levels, but I was confident when I made it.

Hmm, yeah, those hands made sense for the JT hand, but imo, the SB could easily have been taking a shot with any ten. I suppose sometimes you just have to gamble to go deep in tournies, but I still stand by folding.

[copernicus]

I'm confused why you are discounting the flush draw. Why wouldn't a shorty push with the flush draw as a semi-bluff?

Besides the low a priori probability of suited cards when there are two on the board, neither one has the implied odds to push with a bare flush draw and with a coordinated flop of reasonably high cards has little FE.