Decide My Fate

[Benjamin 0]

17 players left and 10 advance.Average chips is 50k... This is a sattelite.. Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (2000/4000) Button (49496 in chips) SB: (23910 in chips) BB: (169686 in chips) -Chip leaderUTG: HERO(109860 in chips) -2nd in chipsUTG+1: (39615 in chips) UTG+214345 in chips) MP: (94044 in chips) MP1: (38680 in chips) CO: (72842 in chips) 200*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to HERO [Qc Ac]HERO: what do you do Table image:Button (49496 in chips) - extremely tightSB: (23910 in chips) - low on chips waiting to pushBB: (169686 in chips) - playing alot of hands/aggressiveUTG: HERO(109860 in chips) -playing tight for final 10.. Folding lots of hands..UTG+1: (39615 in chips) - don't remeberUTG+2 (14345 in chips) - just lost a big hand to chip leaderMP: (94044 in chips) - playing tight for final 10MP1: (38680 in chips) - don't rememberCO: (72842 in chips) - playing tight for final 10

[Eric Smith 0]

Make it 10k to go

[copernicus 0]

Its a little too early to pass on hands this strong. With only the big stack playing policeman a couple of smaller stacks are going to steal enough blinds to survive till they get a real hand and double up, get patient again etc. On the other hand you dont want to risk a lot of chips that knock you down too far. If the bigger stacks understand satellite play and dont mess with other big stacks, but gang up on the little guys, this hand is a limp. It may induce a small stack to push with a much weaker hand than you have. If none of the small stacks have a hand they want to push without first in vigorish and big blind cooperates you'll get to see a flop and get out very cheap.If any of the other big stacks go to war with other big stacks then I would raise to signal to them that you have a real hand and they are going to be risking a lot of chips to play with you. 10k looks like the right number as suggested above.

[Benjamin 0]

With 7 players left to the $$$, won't the EV+ play be too fold. Playing only premium hands in EP such as QQ-AA.

[Benjamin 0]

HERO: raises 8000 to 12000UTG+1: folds UTG+2: folds MP: folds MP1: folds CO: folds Button: folds SB: folds BB: calls 8000 (CL)So CL calls on the BB, what do you put him on? does he have a legitimate hand or is he just calling because of his deep stack?CL is calling alot of raises.

[rogerwilco 0]

^^^^Can't really put him on anything if you say he calls lots of raises. he probably gives you some respect if he has a brain in his head, but he may only be calling because he knows there's a decent chance he can bluff you off your hand if the flop is right.

[copernicus 0]

HERO: raises 8000 to 12000UTG+1: folds UTG+2: folds MP: folds MP1: folds CO: folds Button: folds SB: folds BB: calls 8000 (CL)So CL calls on the BB, what do you put him on? does he have a legitimate hand or is he just calling because of his deep stack?CL is calling alot of raises.

He should have a real hand, but it doesnt sound like he knows what hes doing. At least you have position on him. This is why I like a limp from EP in this situation if BB has been a caller, not a raiser. There are no small stacks involved now, and nobody should really be playing the hand for much.

[Benjamin 0]

*** FLOP *** [8c 4h 4c]Villain: checks Ok what does hero do in this situation?Bet,Check,Fold?

[copernicus 0]

*** FLOP *** [8c 4h 4c]Villain: checks Ok what does hero do in this situation?Bet,Check,Fold?

Check it all the way unless you hit the flush.

[mcpickl 0]

*** FLOP *** [8c 4h 4c]Villain: checks Ok what does hero do in this situation?Bet,Check,Fold?

fold would be awesome

[Benjamin 0]

what about a semibluff here.. Won't a bet be a better EV+ play. If he folds than the play ends there and hero dosen't have to worry about making the flush?

[copernicus 0]

what about a semibluff here.. Won't a bet be a better EV+ play. If he folds than the play ends there and hero dosen't have to worry about making the flush?

How much are you going to SB, 1/2 the pot, or 15k? So youve risked 25% of your stack so far and put yourself in a much more precarious position vs the small stacks. What do you do if he comes over the top? If he calls and you miss? If hes got a bad hand hes going to check it down the rest of the way if he has any brains whatsover. Your FE from a SB is an illusion, because the hand should just run out from here and youre 75%+ to win if hes behind.

[Benjamin 0]

So hero decides to take a shot at the pot and take it down hereHERO: bets 15000Villian: raises 15000 to 30000Hero Ac Qc*** FLOP *** [8c 4h 4c]Call or fold or raise?Hero has about 27k in the pot and has a chip count of 82860

[copernicus 0]

So hero decides to take a shot at the pot and take it down hereHERO: bets 15000Villian: raises 15000 to 30000Hero Ac Qc*** FLOP *** [8c 4h 4c]Call or fold or raise?Hero has about 27k in the pot and has a chip count of 82860

Youve dug yourself a nice hole here, havent you! Your thinking is also counterproductive. Having 27k in the pot has nothing to do with anything. Dead money is dead money. Where you started the hand is irrelevant, its where you are now and the decision your facing. There is 71k in the pot, you have 15k to call. There is a good chance that only the flush outs are good, so youre about a 4.5:1 dog for one card, so you definitely have calling odds.. If you push youre getting almost 2:1 odds , and pick up some fold equity and dont have to worry about redraws. If you fold youre still above average stack.I hate that you got to this place, and the best way out is far from clear. I would probably be so pissed at myself that Id push and hope for the easy way out. Hopefully the big stack realizes hes jeopardized an almost guaranteed seat and folds before he really cripples himself.

[Shizzmoney 0]

Check behind on that flop and keep it small versus the other big stack. You really want to avoid big pots vs the big stack in satellites unless you have a big hand. Plus by checking behind, you keep your customer in there if you do in fact hit your draw.The way our villianis playing it though, I think he just flopped three 8's due to the gheybet

[Benjamin 0]

Hero Ac Qc*** TURN *** [8c 4h 4c] [3c] ( a very good and fortunate turn but)Villian: bets 52000What does he have? now what? call or allin or fold?42k of hero's chips in pot 67k chips remaining

[SuperJon 175]

Hero Ac Qc*** TURN *** [8c 4h 4c] [3c] ( a very good and fortunate turn but)Villian: bets 52000What does he have? now what? call or allin or fold?42k of hero's chips in pot 67k chips remaining

I think I have it figured out. He could very well have JJ-AA. At this stage in tournaments like this, I have seen players get very trappy with these kind of hands. If he's a loose player, then A4 is another possible, but slim holding. However, I don't know if he's the type of player to make such a big bet on the turn with just an overpair when a flush card hits, unless he's trying to represent the flush. After everything that I've read though, the most probable holding I put the villian on is 88. To me, that explains the check/raise on the flop, and then the big bet on the turn. He probably puts you on an overpair.Let me know how right, or wrong, I am.

[copernicus 0]

I think I have it figured out. He could very well have JJ-AA. At this stage in tournaments like this, I have seen players get very trappy with these kind of hands. If he's a loose player, then A4 is another possible, but slim holding. However, I don't know if he's the type of player to make such a big bet on the turn with just an overpair when a flush card hits, unless he's trying to represent the flush. After everything that I've read though, the most probable holding I put the villian on is 88. To me, that explains the check/raise on the flop, and then the big bet on the turn. He probably puts you on an overpair.Let me know how right, or wrong, I am.

Its pretty obvious youre behind, it could be 88 or a 4, that isnt the issue. Its how to proceed from here given that a marginal stack has become even more marginal in a satellite situation.

[SuperJon 175]

Its pretty obvious youre behind, it could be 88 or a 4, that isnt the issue. Its how to proceed from here given that a marginal stack has become even more marginal in a satellite situation.

Well if OP folds, he'll still have the average stack, but chances of him sneaking into the top 10 spots go down a bit. Chances are, he might have to take a chance later on to try and double up, or go back to stealing blinds since it seems the table is fairly tight.So I put the villian on this range of hands:JJ-AA = unlikely, but probable holdings in this situationA4 = a loose call, especially from the BB88 = a very likeable holding and the only hand that beats us right nowThis is a tough spot. Unless you have a solid read I would have to fold.

[finztotheleft 0]

I would think he wouldn't make a big bet there. If I had 88, I'd be afraid the 3 flush board would scare someone out when I wanted to extract more money with the full house. I think a four or an overpair is more likely to be betting here to get you out if you have a one card flush draw. He could also have a club redraw himself.I'd push thinking I just should have folded preflop.What did you do ?

[Benjamin 0]

well i pushed and he had 88 making his full house.. should of dumped the cards preflop..

[SuperJon 175]

well i pushed and he had 88 making his full house.. should of dumped the cards preflop..

Tough break man. Well on the bright side, a few of us here read him for pocket 8s. It's always easier to put someone on a hand after the fact. Better luck next time.