72 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

You are half way through a tournament and are one of the chip leaders. The blinds are 400-800 with a 100 ante and there are nine players at the table. Your stack is at 212,000. A player from MP raises to 2200 and he has a total of 34,000. You suspect that he is desperate and is just trying to steal the blinds.

The player next to the button has 41,000 in chips and calls the raise. You know this player, and know that he wouldn't smooth call here with a monster hand. If he had a strong hand he would re-raise pre-flop.

Now, you are on the button with Q-3 off suit. Up to this point you've re-raised only twice pre-flop all day, showing AA once and KK another time. What is the best play?

[revhq2646]

This is all about table image.

If you have spent all day cultivating a tight pre-flop image, there is no way you want to get called and show Q3, so you can't make it cheap to call, if you are going to play you have to raise big enough to make them fold.

With the read you have given it is clear that a $10,000 bet would most likely be un-callable by either player. If they have made it to the middle of the tournament with decent stacks they are not going to risk their tournament life on a marginal hand. The exception would be the limper, if he had a small to middle pair and put you on a squeeze play he might be willing to go all in here.

The issue here is that ever time you bluff you are "spending" your image. Make enough of these calls and you are no longer a pre-flop rock, so are you getting paid enough to use your image here. When I answered the poll I said fold, because as I glanced over the quiz I read 2 $2,200 bets = ~$4,000 it didn't seem to be the right price for the amount of image you were spending, but you are actually getting $6,500 once you add in the full price of the bets and the blinds and antes.

Pull this off 3 times, you have spent your image and gotten paid about $20,000, a nice low risk way to add 10% to your stack.

Just goes to show you should always post your reply before you vote.

[Balloon guy]

Putting in a $10K raise will squeeze the initial raiser, because he will have to worry about the caller as well as you. Once you get by him the smooth caller will be inclined to feel that tangling with the big stack isn't the same as calling a short stack from position and should fold. If he re-raises then he changed gears and has Aces and you can release after the obligitory stall to pretend you had QQ.

The only problem of course is if one of the blinds wakes up with a hand, which is why an All in is a bad move, 10K will get the same results without risking a big hit from the last two players that have not even looked at their hands yet.


Me I would fold, why play such a weak hand and possibly ruin my table image should I get reraised.

[michael1123]

LOL ... did Mike Matusow write this question?

I don't care about "ruining" my table image (I usually have a crazy one anyway - which I actually like with a deep stack like this), but there's just no reason to risk making a play here for a measly 6.5k, which is nothing compared to your stack. I'd actually like the reraise more if you had a stack between 15-20k, in which case if you raised you'd be going all in and relying on your tight image to help you get folds.

But even then there's no reason to risk it with this hand. Throw it in the muck and move onto the next hand. You can certainly find better spots than this.

[nutzbuster]

Fold or raise 10K.

Q-3 blows for 10K, so Im folding.

[ramenandeggs]

play the players not the cards. raise to 10k.

[Canada]

I think its a choice between folding and raising to 10,000

Calling with a rubbish hand against 2 players seems ambitious as you would only be doing that to steal the pot later.

Raising to 5500 forces both players to call which bloats the pot and would make your anxious opponents feel more pot-commited in later streets.

Going all-in is committing too much to win too little and only helps you lose the maximum.



Folding risks nothing but is passing up on a potential opportunity.

Given the reads both players would struggle to call a raise to 10k so it might be possible to steal cheaply. The problem is we only know the likely strength of the players hands, not their likely reactions to a reraise. Put another way, we know our table image but do they? If they were good enough players then this option gets my vote, otherwise against calling stations folding seems best.

It would seem that the players might be reasonable to bluff against with a 2.5 BB preflop raise indicating some knowledge, and the cautious description given of the caller.

I'll go with raising to 10k

[Head_Trauma]

The blinds are 400-800. MP has a total of 34,000. You suspect that he is desperate and is just trying to steal the blinds.

What? Why is he desperately trying to steal the blinds with over 40 BBs? I could see this if his stack was about 12-15k... but I don't think 34k is even close to desperation mode.

[DonkSlayer]

Everyone will hate this...but why not call in position? If you can't put either player on a worthy hand, you could very well be live against both, and people to take the pot down on the flop, regardless of whether you hit it or not. Spiking a Q could very well bust the shortstack.

[shpaget]

On the surface, image or not, I don't see the point in risking 10k to win 6500, which amounts to increasing your stack by 3%.

However, typically speaking you want to win at least once per revolution simply to stay ahead of the blinds - even when your stack is huge - winning here takes care of three revolutions.


I don't think you risk ruining your image here - it IS a good squeeze situation and it's not like this exact scenario is gonna happen every time you're on the button...even if you make this play every time the opportunity presents itself you won't impact your image as a tight re-raiser....it could be 100 hands before a squeeze play scenario comes up again.

And, yeah, to the one poster who questioned why buddy is desperate with 34k, and almost 40 BB's - his M is only 16, and he is probably half the average stack....not necessarily dire straits, but not exactly comfortable - in 50 or 60 hands he WILL be very desperate. I can see someone with this type of stack making more plays, or at least loosening up considerably when first to act, just to keep ahead of the blinds.



A fold isn't wrong (many pros advocate playing extremely tight and taking less risks with a large stack - others advocate taking -ev chances with "meaningless" extra chips), but a bet has merit - and then it simply depends on the purpose of your bet and/or your goals for this particular hand.


If you want to steal, then 10k is a good-sized bet - it's big enough to scare all but the best of hands, so if you do get reraised you know you're dead AND you can get away from it, losing less than 5% of your stack - the two guys in question won't call that bet with drawing hands 'cause their stacksizes don't give them the implied odds. You essentially need to steal the pot 2/3 times for this to be profitable, and that is likely the case.


If you want to play, and maximize implied odds, the call or raise to 5k all but ensures that the raiser, the limper and the BB will play, and possibly the SB. You need to hit the flop hard, but you are in position, so, it's not bad to see what happens here.


I honestly think you can make a plausible argument for all options except the all-in - risk reward just doesn't add up.


Raise to 10k is likely the best play long-term....closely followed by a fold. Raising to 5k and calling aren't terrible either provided you know their purpose.

[shpaget]

Everyone will hate this...but why not call in position? If you can't put either player on a worthy hand, you could very well be live against both, and people to take the pot down on the flop, regardless of whether you hit it or not. Spiking a Q could very well bust the shortstack.

Provided you are disciplined enough to get away from of flop of Q74 when someone comes hard at you.

[elpresidente]

This is all about table image.

If you have spent all day cultivating a tight pre-flop image, there is no way you want to get called and show Q3, so you can't make it cheap to call, if you are going to play you have to raise big enough to make them fold.

With the read you have given it is clear that a $10,000 bet would most likely be un-callable by either player. If they have made it to the middle of the tournament with decent stacks they are not going to risk their tournament life on a marginal hand. The exception would be the limper, if he had a small to middle pair and put you on a squeeze play he might be willing to go all in here.

The issue here is that ever time you bluff you are "spending" your image. Make enough of these calls and you are no longer a pre-flop rock, so are you getting paid enough to use your image here. When I answered the poll I said fold, because as I glanced over the quiz I read 2 $2,200 bets = ~$4,000 it didn't seem to be the right price for the amount of image you were spending, but you are actually getting $6,500 once you add in the full price of the bets and the blinds and antes.

Pull this off 3 times, you have spent your image and gotten paid about $20,000, a nice low risk way to add 10% to your stack.

Just goes to show you should always post your reply before you vote.

But doesn't "spending" your table image just leave you with a different table image? Can you not use whatever table image to your advantage given the right situation (which this quiz demonstrates in my opinion)? What if you find yourself with KK later on in the same situation (which is almost exactly what Harrington uses to explain the squeeze in Vol I if I recall correctly)? If indeed you read them to not be able to make that call, how can you not make the raise?

[outsider13]

I certainly like the 10k raise in this situation too, especially if you have the read on both players and a tight table image.

My questions is though, how do you play this if you get a caller or a push from one of these? This is a problem I have when I commit myself to a pot like this. Do you fold not risking your chips, but more importantly your table image? If you fold this, or even if you call it, you'll lose that image....wouldn't you?

[DonkSlayer]

Provided you are disciplined enough to get away from of flop of Q74 when someone comes hard at you.

Depends on the context. It's probably a call if the shortack looks sick and then pushes the flop. If it goes bet/raise to you, we can fold. We can probably raise a check/bet to see where we are and get away from it if we take a lot of heat. We have greeeaaaat position though!

[The Czar]

Raise to $10,000, thus sandwiching the original raiser, whom you thought was stealing. If he calls, the next guy almost immediately folds and you're heads up, but he will probably fold if you read him correctly. As you've also stated, the guy in the cutoff doesn't show much strength with a smooth call, so I'm not too worried about him calling your raise. My opinion is that $10,000 gets the job done and you scoop the pot right there. You use your sandwich against the Or.Raiser and your read against the caller.

[Morpheus]

It might make sense to reraise with suited connectors or a small pair (in case you get called), but Q3 is not even playable.....i say fold!

[simo_8ball]

It might make sense to reraise with suited connectors or a small pair (in case you get called), but Q3 is not even playable.....i say fold!

You do realise that this move has nothing (or at least very little) to do with our cards, right?

[shpaget]

It might make sense to reraise with suited connectors or a small pair (in case you get called), but Q3 is not even playable.....i say fold!

If I'm raising to 10k here I can do it with two Uno cards - that you have Q3 is irrelevent.

[michael1123]

Anyone saying to consider calling here is WAY over thinking this. I think you guys are just trying to think out of the box and wouldn't actually do this, but if actually would in this situation ... you'd always be a welcome player in any game I play in.

Calling here with this hand would just be dumb ... no good small ball player, even those that play a ton of hands like Daniel, Hanson, Gavin Smith, etc. would ever call in this spot. Now with 98o that's a different matter ... and with a suited connector or small pair it'd be expected. But Q3o? That's just asking to give away chips. Raising seems unnecessarily risky to me, but calling is much moreso.

You do realise that this move has nothing (or at least very little) to do with our cards, right?

If I'm raising to 10k here I can do it with two Uno cards - that you have Q3 is irrelevent.

Actually, I completely agree with the other guy. The move would make a lot more sense with a hand that could take a flop like 76s. Your cards only don't matter if you don't get called, and these two players have 34k-41k between them. Your cards would matter less if you moved all in or if they were much shorter stacked, but even then a hand like Q3 is going to be dominated by every hand that calls you besides AK and possibly AJ-AT if they're nuts enough to call with those hands. A hand like 87s will only be dominated by higher pairs which are very unlikely. With a small pair you'd probably just want to call, but 76s in this very specific situation probably plays better with a reraise.

IF you're going to reraise here, I'd much rather raise to around 6.5k-7k. It looks more scary than the raise to 10k and gives you a much better value on your raise. It only needs to work about 50% of the time preflop, and that's not even considering that you still have a good chance to take the pot down postflop either by getting lucky and hitting the flop or continuing your representation of a big pair on a non-scary flop (just about any flop without an A in this case).

Also, personally, I get most of my strong reads post flop. I'd never be too certain that these players were that weak preflop, so that greatly adds to the risk factor involved. So I still stand by this not being a neccesary move at this point, since it won't add much to your stack and your chip position is extremely favorable. There's no need to take risks like this with a big stack.

And since the raise options given are either raising too small or too much, I'm positive Daniel's answer is going to be to fold here. I'm pretty sure Matusow would reraise to 10k here with these reads, but making this move just doesn't fit in with the small ball style of play at all.

[revhq2646]

...
Actually, I completely agree with the other guy. The move would make a lot more sense with a hand that could take a flop like 76s. Your cards only don't matter if you don't get called, and these two players have 34k-41k between them.

Your cards don't matter because they are Q3. The only time you want to see a flop with Q3 is when you have psychic knowledge that the flop is coming 333 or when you are playing limit and trying to cultivate a loose table image.

And you can recast the problem all you want, but you were given reads in the problem, if you never going to play your read, play checkers. You don't have 76s or AA, you have a crappy unplayable pair of hole cards. So you play the players or you fold. It takes no imagination to fold Q3 and it is never a bad play, but this is the perfect set up for a squeeze play. Weak raise, Weak call, two stacks that can't afford to tangle with you, you have a tight image, the only reason not to try and pick them off is to protect your image. (or you don't trust your reads, now I may not trust my reads, I clearly don't trust your reads, but this is Daniel F*&$!@# Negreanu making the read, I'm gonna go with it.)

It is a low risk play to pick up $6,500 and make everyone at the table a little more nervous of the big stack.