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#21 SlackerInc

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 04:26 PM

Navybuttons, I agree with you on the size of raises early in a lower buy in SNG (you get callers, often callers that are dominated); but your first proposal, to put in nearly half your stack with low suited connectors from EP...whoa, I just can't see that one at all. Now, if your stack was a bit smaller relative to the blinds, I could see pushing with suited connectors in EP, when the blinds are about to mow down nearly a third of your chips; but making a big raise like this without getting the folding equity provided by a push, when you still have time to wait for a better spot? Hmmm....I mean, what if someone calls, and then you flop bottom pair and a runner-runner flush draw? At least if you had pushed, you would get all five cards and could not be bluffed out of the pot against someone with say A-J that whiffed.

#22 navybuttons

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 05:40 PM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Tuesday, December 26th, 2006, 4:23 PM, said:

Try doing the math before you give an example.
i will not!you guys are right, i thought about editing it, but i don't want to think about it anymore. i've given numerous examples to this kind of stealing in these forums and i don't really care to anymore.if you're serious about implementing these kind of steals in your game change my model to one where you think the play could be profitable or play a few $5 180 person SNGs, wait until the bubble and steal UTG every other orbit at 6 or 7 players and UTG+2 or 3 at full ring.
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#23 simo_8ball

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 05:47 PM

View Postnavybuttons, on Wednesday, December 27th, 2006, 1:40 AM, said:

i will not!
Lol. I know what you are saying. Early position steals CAN be profitable, but it has to be the right situation. Those situations are relatively rare though.BTW, why do you hate the term 'EV'?

#24 Shimmering Wang

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 05:56 PM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Tuesday, December 26th, 2006, 8:47 PM, said:

Lol. I know what you are saying. Early position steals CAN be profitable, but it has to be the right situation. Those situations are relatively rare though.BTW, why do you hate the term 'EV'?
I don't know about that. I encounter situations all the time where it's profitable to shove with your eyes closed from any position. There are plenty of scenarios in which a table is full of players whose calling ranges are so narrow compared to the amount of dead money in the pot that you're showing an automatic profit by throwing chips in the pot hand over fist.

#25 Jam-Fly

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 06:16 PM

View PostSlackerInc, on Tuesday, December 26th, 2006, 3:29 PM, said:

So when you guys talk about raising two and a half times the big blind online, you are typing these bets in, then? I'm too lazy for that (shocker, given my SN I know). I always use the slider.Oh, and thanks to Simo for the acronym thread.
Yup, in the long run, typing in 400 rather than pushing the bar to 450 is worth it.
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#26 navybuttons

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 07:27 PM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Tuesday, December 26th, 2006, 5:47 PM, said:

why do you hate the term 'EV'?
for the most part people misunderstand what it means (at least i think so). people use it in the david sklansky concept of math odds vs. pot size which is alright for them. but i can't think of it in those terms. the way i think of EV: my raise size vs. pot size vs. villians calling range vs. flops that hit villain's hand vs. flops that hit both our hands, but mine a little harder (and my chance of stacking him) vs. opponents ability to bluff call vs. the added equity i gain from those chips (the last only applies to a tournament situation).the expected value i use is the calculation of all these and for me to use the term "EV" (for the most part) implies a different definition of the term that most use.another bad example: i can use my calculation to show how raising from UTG w/ 72 offsuit has a positive expected value. most people however could never expand their thinking to believe that raising UTG w/ 72 is "+EV"
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#27 Shimmering Wang

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 07:50 PM

View Postnavybuttons, on Tuesday, December 26th, 2006, 10:27 PM, said:

for the most part people misunderstand what it means (at least i think so). people use it in the david sklansky concept of math odds vs. pot size which is alright for them. but i can't think of it in those terms. the way i think of EV: my raise size vs. pot size vs. villians calling range vs. flops that hit villain's hand vs. flops that hit both our hands, but mine a little harder (and my chance of stacking him) vs. opponents ability to bluff call vs. the added equity i gain from those chips (the last only applies to a tournament situation).the expected value i use is the calculation of all these and for me to use the term "EV" (for the most part) implies a different definition of the termthan most use.another bad example: i can use my calculation to show how raising from UTG w/ 72 offsuit has a positive expected value. most people however could never expand their thinking to believe that raising UTG w/ 72 is "+EV"
This is how I think of expected value. At a table that is:a) playing way too tightB) only reraising with monstersc) playing too tight/passive postflopraising with 72 UTG is definitely +EV.I don't think you're giving people enough credit. People often use EV as shorthand for "what are the immediate benefits of this small decision?" (ie, I'm getting laid 2-1, and I'm good here 40% of the time, so a call is +EV) At the same time, I think most people who understand the game also realize that poker is a lot more subtle and complicated than "am I getting the right price right now?" Wang

#28 navybuttons

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 08:46 PM

View PostShimmering Wang, on Tuesday, December 26th, 2006, 7:50 PM, said:

This is how I think of expected value. At a table that is:a) playing way too tightB) only reraising with monstersc) playing too tight/passive postflopraising with 72 UTG is definitely +EV. I don't think you're giving people enough credit. People often use EV as shorthand for "what are the immediate benefits of this small decision?" (ie, I'm getting laid 2-1, and I'm good here 40% of the time, so a call is +EV) At the same time, I think most people who understand the game also realize that poker is a lot more subtle and complicated than "am I getting the right price right now?" Wang
of course the raise w/ 72 UTG is only one example of infinity (table conditions). i don't think it's that i'm not giving people enough credit. of course, even the most basic of players understand that there are subtleties to the game and table conditions. i was simply explaining why i hate to use the term as i have a different definition that what i consider most people to carry. if most people carry a definition (or openess to the use of the term) like mine, than i am wrong and apologize if i came off egotistical.
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#29 SlackerInc

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Posted 26 December 2006 - 11:42 PM

View PostJam-Fly, on Tuesday, December 26th, 2006, 8:16 PM, said:

Yup, in the long run, typing in 400 rather than pushing the bar to 450 is worth it.
Has this been mathematically determined somehow? If so, why is the number still even? Why not 375 (or 399 like some people do to put up a big pile of chips)? I'm not trying to be snide; it just seems that if you have to type it in manually anyway, why not put the exact correct amount instead of an even amount? Also, what is the reason this is better? Is it because it is just as likely to get the blinds to fold, without "wasting" as much money in case you get reraised? (In which case it only applies to blind steals, unless you think you're at an observant table where people will pick up the pattern to your raises.)

#30 copernicus

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Posted 27 December 2006 - 07:32 AM

View Postnavybuttons, on Tuesday, December 26th, 2006, 11:46 PM, said:

of course the raise w/ 72 UTG is only one example of infinity (table conditions). i don't think it's that i'm not giving people enough credit. of course, even the most basic of players understand that there are subtleties to the game and table conditions. i was simply explaining why i hate to use the term as i have a different definition that what i consider most people to carry. if most people carry a definition (or openess to the use of the term) like mine, than i am wrong and apologize if i came off egotistical.
I don't think your definition is different from anyone elses, just more completely expressed.
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#31 outsider13

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Posted 27 December 2006 - 08:54 AM

I actually use close to this same strategy at stars in $10 sng, 1 and 2 table and do have some success. I agree with the 5x blind raise early levels. You will get callers with A rag with 1 or 2x raise all of the time....even any 2 face.There are a few things I don't do, particularily be uber agressive with the chip lead. Obviously I bully, but not to the extent the original poster had detailed.All in all, i think it's a pretty good strategy for lower limit sng's.

#32 navybuttons

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Posted 27 December 2006 - 10:15 AM

View Postcopernicus, on Wednesday, December 27th, 2006, 7:32 AM, said:

I don't think your definition is different from anyone elses, just more completely expressed.
than i am wrong and apologize if i came off sounding arrogant. :club:
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#33 Jam-Fly

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Posted 27 December 2006 - 10:47 PM

View PostSlackerInc, on Tuesday, December 26th, 2006, 11:42 PM, said:

Has this been mathematically determined somehow? If so, why is the number still even? Why not 375 (or 399 like some people do to put up a big pile of chips)? I'm not trying to be snide; it just seems that if you have to type it in manually anyway, why not put the exact correct amount instead of an even amount? Also, what is the reason this is better? Is it because it is just as likely to get the blinds to fold, without "wasting" as much money in case you get reraised? (In which case it only applies to blind steals, unless you think you're at an observant table where people will pick up the pattern to your raises.)
ok, so I was saying raise 400 at 150BB levels, right ? In the case u get reraised and cant call (be it becoz u were on a complete steal, your hand is too weak, its against chip leader, whatever, reason is irrelevant), u save 50. Why is not 399 ? It can be if u like. It is not a massive strategical play, it is just one that will save you a whole bunch of small blinds in the long run. Not a HUGE adv, but still, an adv none the less (is "none the less" one word?)
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#34 copernicus

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Posted 28 December 2006 - 08:11 AM

View PostSlackerInc, on Wednesday, December 27th, 2006, 2:42 AM, said:

Has this been mathematically determined somehow? If so, why is the number still even? Why not 375 (or 399 like some people do to put up a big pile of chips)? I'm not trying to be snide; it just seems that if you have to type it in manually anyway, why not put the exact correct amount instead of an even amount? Also, what is the reason this is better? Is it because it is just as likely to get the blinds to fold, without "wasting" as much money in case you get reraised? (In which case it only applies to blind steals, unless you think you're at an observant table where people will pick up the pattern to your raises.)
Generally the smallest bet that will accomplish your purpose is better in the long run if you dont have a very solidly favored hand. the math behind it would be similar to the "dont take a small edge now if you can wait for a bigger edge later", except only looking at the marginal chips between two possible bets (450-400 in this case).
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#35 SlackerInc

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 01:11 PM

View Postcopernicus, on Thursday, December 28th, 2006, 10:11 AM, said:

Generally the smallest bet that will accomplish your purpose is better in the long run if you dont have a very solidly favored hand. the math behind it would be similar to the "dont take a small edge now if you can wait for a bigger edge later", except only looking at the marginal chips between two possible bets (450-400 in this case).
Okay, but so fundamentally this is a psychological assessment: that 2.5xBB (or 2.67xBB in the case of the 400 bet) will look just as formidable to the blinds. I gotcha--and have been applying this just now (in a 180 where I was first stack out of 120 or so but am now shortstacked with 60 players left--ack).

#36 smallwd

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 07:23 PM

View PostSlackerInc, on Friday, December 29th, 2006, 4:11 PM, said:

Okay, but so fundamentally this is a psychological assessment: that 2.5xBB (or 2.67xBB in the case of the 400 bet) will look just as formidable to the blinds. I gotcha--and have been applying this just now (in a 180 where I was first stack out of 120 or so but am now shortstacked with 60 players left--ack).
It all depends on your table. Often it is around 3BB, sometimes 2 will work and sometime 5 will get 3 callers. Also, if the blinds are 150, try raising to 441 or 468 sometimes. There are a lot of people that can't do the math right and make bad decisions because of it.

#37 Cappy37

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Posted 20 December 2007 - 03:59 AM

evil bumpity bumpity.
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#38 Jam-Fly

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Posted 24 September 2008 - 12:18 PM

this thread was epic, way ahead of it's time
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