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Answer To Quizz Question #23


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#1 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 23 December 2006 - 01:19 PM

After reading some of my recent blogs I think I made the answer to this question pretty obvious. Calling is not only the safest play, but it also gives you the best chance of busting your opponent if you happen to hit a set on the turn and he has an overrpair. In fact, considering how much it will cost you to raise on this flop precentage wise, raising to 3000 isn't such a good play at all. You'll get similar information for 1000, although you give your opponent a 14% chance of outdrawing you by calling the flop. If my choice is to save 2000 and give myself a 14% chance of losing the pot, or losing an extra 2000 to protect against a 14% draw, I'll take the safe route the majority of the time. All of this changes, however if you change the stack sizes. For example, if my stack is at, say, 32,000, then making the raise won't cost me as much percentage wise so it now also becomes an option as well. In this example, though, risking 30% of your stack to protect your hand in a guessing situation isn't the best approach.
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#2 tapeworm

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Posted 23 December 2006 - 03:43 PM

You say it was obvious, but I found it interesting. My first instinct was to raise, but I see your point that given the stack sizes you are risking too much and not getting much more info. It seems you are about 50-50 at this point. Against the full range you described, I think you are 54%: http://www.pokerlama...!...!b~Jc_7d_4hBut, when I took out 55-22(which I think is less likely for an EP raise) you are 48.9%: http://www.pokerlama...!...!b~Jc_7d_4hSince, you know he will not fire a second bullet, calling seems better, but with bigger stacks, I think I raise. My question though is with these stacks, does your analysys change at all if he sometimes fires a second bullet? Like, lets say he will bluff a blank turn, about 50% of the time. Would you still smooth call? Is there a characteristic of your opponent that would make you raise here, even with your limited stack?Analysis by anyone would help, thanks.

#3 copernicus

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Posted 24 December 2006 - 11:26 AM

View Posttapeworm, on Saturday, December 23rd, 2006, 6:43 PM, said:

You say it was obvious, but I found it interesting. My first instinct was to raise, but I see your point that given the stack sizes you are risking too much and not getting much more info. It seems you are about 50-50 at this point. Against the full range you described, I think you are 54%: http://www.pokerlama...!...!b~Jc_7d_4hBut, when I took out 55-22(which I think is less likely for an EP raise) you are 48.9%: http://www.pokerlama...!...!b~Jc_7d_4hSince, you know he will not fire a second bullet, calling seems better, but with bigger stacks, I think I raise. My question though is with these stacks, does your analysys change at all if he sometimes fires a second bullet? Like, lets say he will bluff a blank turn, about 50% of the time. Would you still smooth call? Is there a characteristic of your opponent that would make you raise here, even with your limited stack?Analysis by anyone would help, thanks.
Lets say you are exactly 50/50 right now to make the math easier, and we'll take out 22-55 like you said. Given the range of hands you put him on, if he isnt already ahead hes got 6 outs to the AQ and AK (16 possible holdings) and 2 outs to the 88, 77, 66 (18 possible holdings) so on average he is going to actually move ahead of you 4/45 of the time...call it 10% of the times he is behind. He's already ahead of you with AJ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT which is 42 hands...roughly 50% of the time.So he will fire a second bullet 50% of the time that hes already ahead, 5% of the time that he is behind and moves ahead, and 22.5% of the time that he is behind, stays behind, and runs a bluff. So you have 22.5/77.5 chance of still being ahead if he fires a second bullet, which is about 30%...throw in your set chances and say you are ahead 33% of the time that he fires a second bullet, and you are ahead and stay ahead 22.5% of the time..ie your winning chances actually improve slightly moving from the flop to the turn. Thats probably enough for a borderline call.
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#4 simo_8ball

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Posted 24 December 2006 - 11:33 AM

View PostDanielNegreanu, on Tuesday, November 28th, 2006, 1:46 AM, said:

When I post the answer you'll be surprised to learn what some other people would have you do in these types of situations.
Surprise me.

#5 aasurfer

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 07:31 PM

I voted for smooth call when i first read the question and considered the bet amounts and stage of the tournament. 1000 seems like a pretty standard continuation bet to try to pick up the pot. Based on this players profile that bet alone should let you know if you're ahead or behind on the turn, and may even get him to check down a better hand if he does have 10s or QJ, though q or kj is unlikely. I definitely agree with the point about taking the safe road. Having a pair of 9s on that board is pretty good, but when it comes down to it I don't want to jeoprodize my tournament life over it!Phil :club:




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