111 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

It's day one of a WPT event and you have your chips up to about 11,100 from it's original 10,000. The blinds are still 25-50 and you look down at Q Q and make it 150 to go. The button calls as does the big blind. The flop comes: J 9 2 and the big blind checks to you. You bet 400 and the button calls. The big blind now check raises you to 1900, 1500 more. You call and the button folds. The turn card comes the K and your opponent bets 5500. You now have a flush draw as well as a straight draw. Based on what you know of the player you are quite sure that you are up against two pair, trips, A J, or possibly a very small flush. The King doesn't scare you at all, but you are stil pretty sure that your opponent has the best hand. What would you do?

[Swift_Psycho]

I think I can find a better spot to commit this many chips. It's too early to gamble like this with such a marginal hand. Fold.

[TylerBeal]

If folding isnt the anwser here I dont know why I play poker.

[KDawgCometh]

damn. I wanted to be the first to respond. oh well. THere is no need to muck around here as there is just way too much that can beat you here. if someone has a small flush you have a redraw for the queen flush, but why. If they have an A flush draw then your against 12 outs, which I don't like. If you are up against a set you have a redraw for the flush or top set. Notice though that two out of the three options have you behind and the other isn't all that desireable as they can hit an Ace or a heart to win(though your Queen of hearts counterfeits one of his outs). Its too early to push with this hand. Muck it and go on to the next one, and if he's bluffing you then luck to him

[Swift_Psycho]

KDawgCometh said:

damn. I wanted to be the first to respond. oh well. THere is no need to muck around here as there is just way too much that can beat you here. if someone has a small flush you have a redraw for the queen flush, but why. If they have an A flush draw then your against 12 outs, which I don't like. If you are up against a set you have a redraw for the flush or top set. Notice though that two out of the three options have you behind and the other isn't all that desireable as they can hit an Ace or a heart to win(though your Queen of hearts counterfeits one of his outs). Its too early to push with this hand. Muck it and go on to the next one, and if he's bluffing you then luck to him

:dance:

[KDawgCometh]

lol. I kill you foo

[augiecrazy8]

It is still to early to commit this many chips. Seems simple, especially if you are almost certain that you know you are behind. You only have 6 cards for the flush, and another four for the straight. Tournament play, at least i believe, is not AS MUCH about odds as ring games are. The situation, chip stack, overall position, table image, tournament stage should all be taken into account. If you are sitting at a table with Daniel you know it. You know he is one of the best in the world. Most people would not try to bluff with an amount of chips such as described in the original post. I vote to fold.

[Suited_Up]

Yeah..... Fold this one. No need to risk it this early when you could so easily be beaten. He's not showing strength for nothing I don't think.

[rkkkkjj]

im trying to win this thing right? and i had the bankroll to legitimately buy in? i didnt have to sell a kidney or something? and if he does have me beat let it be known u can not bluff me, ill call with anything lol

[rkkkkjj]

hes got AA, all i need is a 10 or a Q, 6 outs, ive done worse

[jooka]

is there a reason your not telling us the opponents chip stack, does he have us covered? As in all-in and lose your busted? Hopefully you respond DN.

[Nutcracker]

Am I the only one that would probably fold on the flop here, seeing as how he bet larger than pot size on a check raise?

[custom36]

Nutcracker said:

Am I the only one that would probably fold on the flop here, seeing as how he bet larger than pot size on a check raise?

Yup.Anyway, I'm with everyone else. I've gotta fold this here.

[rkkkkjj]

gotta follow through with the read, yes!

[Swift_Psycho]

Nutcracker said:

Am I the only one that would probably fold on the flop here, seeing as how he bet larger than pot size on a check raise?

It depends. I might need some sort of read on the player. Daniel doesn't give any in this question, so I dunno. I imagine some players will also fire a big shell on a bluff at times in hopes of bullying a pro (who they know is capable of making "great" laydowns). Calling on the flop isn't too bad I don't think. But I doubt that the guy would have the guts to fire another huge shell at the pot on a bluff, so I give him credit for a better hand than mine on the turn and I let it go then for sure.

[Erudis]

the pot is offering you about 1.8 to 1it's early in the tournament and you have 9050 chips left and it will cost you over half of this to call (5500 more)your read is telling you that you're behind.if he has 2 pair (say, Jacks and 9's), you have max 17 outsif he has trips (say trip jacks) you have max 14 outsif he has a small flush you have max 7 outsnone of these warrant a call early in the tourney for over half your chips only getting 1.8 to 1.there's only 1 hand you think he could have that you're actually ahead of and that's the Ah Jx and he'll still win this battle versus you 1 in 4 times. if you could say without a doubt that this is what he had than it's definitely a call; but you're not sure and it's early in the tournament.cut your losses and fold. just tell him the chips you're sending over are on loan.

[BigRob]

hmm... its defiantely a teaser but dosent seem that hard as i see it i mean you have alot of hands that are better than you at that point..so i am folding with not having info on player chip stack history and various other variables..but i mean if you think you are beat then why play i mean you cant call for value here i mean it would cost to much just to see a hand for value and if you are beat lay it down and move on to the next hand...but my question is why such a minimal bet???i mean 150 in to that pot leaves you to guess on what he has wouldnt a larger bet eliminate some of those possibiites... I mean with you only betting 3x the big blind you get 2 callers...so i would fold as said but i play pocket pairs more agressive than 3x big blind...but that is IMO..

[akishore]

i'm definitely going against the grain, but i push all-in.1. if he has AJ with the ace of hearts, or any nut flush draw besides AK and AA, your pair of queens is good.2. if he has a set, you have a strong draw for higher set, straight, or flush. 14 outs with two cards to come.3. this seems like an ideal flop to attempt a bluff-check-raise.4. you might make him fold if he's on a bluff or uncomfortable with his set/draw, but you're also comfortable with a call.5. i realize that it's early, but daniel's not one to play scared money. if he busts, fine, but this is an ideal situation to double up early and accumulate chips.6. this hand came up in reno, it's in daniel's blog. he called and folded when the river came no help, and i think he feels that he should have pushed.7. it sets a nice aggressive + fearless table image for you if you win or make him fold, especially if you show him the hand after you fold.all-in.aseemp.s. this very much reminds me of the NL cash game hand i posted, though pot odds are more relevant in my hand whereas tournament strategy is more relevant here. can't wait to see daniel's answer to this quiz, i think it'll be applicable to my post as well.

[akishore]

i think a big reason behind my choice of all-in is that daniel is a new-school player, not an old-school player.old-school players thrive on survival thinking. they want to live past day 1 and day 2.daniel has stated publicly before that he doesn't believe in this. he prefers to be in many action pots in day 1 and day 2. he argues that all the bad players drop out on these days, and those chips have got to go somewhere--he prefers to be the one collecting all that dead money.granted, the BB in this hand was gavin griffin, but daniel's not one to fold a possible winner because he's scared of elimination...anyone agree?aseem

[lies]

is it weak tight to say i'd fold?