12 replies to this topic

[cwik]

Money bubble just broke about 15 minutes earlier. average stack is about 12,000, however lots of big stacks at this one. About 200 poeople left.

300/600 Ante 75

Stack sizes:
Seat 1: FW Buck (7 950)
Seat 2: FLUXION (14 342) is sitting out
Seat 3: Grothzilla13 (11 475)
Seat 4: MorganSthlm (14 666)
Seat 5: gambler339 (43 556)
Seat 6: cozmo_c (18 075)
Seat 7: dillow (10 035)
Seat 8: cpajedi (11 014)
Seat 9: cwik1 (24 768)

Pre-flop:(9 players) Hero is CO with 10 10
MorganSthlm (UTG) raises 1,800, folds around, cwik1???

Whats my play here?

[simo_8ball]

Call.

[throwemaway]

Call and see a flop in position...Depends on reads, but an utg raise should be given a bit of respect

[ChrisRichey]

Call and see a flop.

[cwik]

The reason I stopped here is because this is where I figured I screwed up. Anyways, I reraise, action goes like this:

Stack sizes:
Seat 1: FW Buck (7 950)
Seat 2: FLUXION (14 342) is sitting out
Seat 3: Grothzilla13 (11 475)
Seat 4: MorganSthlm (14 666)
Seat 5: gambler339 (43 556)
Seat 6: cozmo_c (18 075)
Seat 7: dillow (10 035)
Seat 8: cpajedi (11 014)
Seat 9: cwik1 (24 768)

Pre-flop:(9 players) Hero is CO with 10 icon_suit_diamond.gif 10 icon_suit_club.gif
MorganSthlm (UTG) raises 1,800, folds around, cwik1 reraises to 5,000, Grothzilla13 (BB) rereaises all-in to 11,475, MorganSthlm folds.

K, got myself in a bit off a mess. Basically it is 6,000 to call a 19,000 pot. Muck and I'm left with 19,750. Call and lose 13,750 (Average). Win 33,000 (top 5 in chips).

Basically I'm thinking I hope he has Ak-AQ. AA-JJ is strong possiblity. And 77-99 might, but unlikely, make this play. Even a hand of air which is extremly unlikey, but maybe the guy really likes to defend his blinds, is still prolley a coin flip.

[XXEddie]

If i am thinking clear, considering you are getting 3.17-1 odds on the call,. he only has to have a hand like AK/AQ or 99-77 about 25% of the time for this to be a call. .

However, I only see AK here really. I think you might need to fold

[simo_8ball]

If i am thinking clear

You're not. Getting 2.86:1, you HAVE to call, AINEC. You have to know that he will fold AKo, but will definitely shove with QQ, KK, AA.

You need 25.8% equity to break even:

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    40.2664 %      40.07%     00.20%      { TT }
Hand  2:    59.7336 %      59.54%     00.20%      { KK+, AKs, AKo }

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    40.1087 %      39.91%     00.20%      { TT }
Hand  2:    59.8913 %      59.69%     00.20%      { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    33.6535 %      33.45%     00.20%      { TT }
Hand  2:    66.3465 %      66.14%     00.20%      { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    27.8085 %      27.61%     00.20%      { TT }
Hand  2:    72.1915 %      71.99%     00.20%      { KK+, AKs }

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    25.2514 %      25.05%     00.20%      { TT }
Hand  2:    74.7486 %      74.55%     00.20%      { QQ+, AKs }

[cwik]

You're not. Getting 2.86:1, you HAVE to call, AINEC. You have to know that he will fold AKo, but will definitely shove with QQ, KK, AA.

You need 25.8% equity to break even:

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    -->40.2664 %    40.07%     00.20%      { TT }
Hand  2:    59.7336 %      59.54%     00.20%      { KK+, AKs, AKo }

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    40.1087 %      39.91%     00.20%      { TT }
Hand  2:    59.8913 %      59.69%     00.20%      { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    -->33.6535 %    33.45%     00.20%      { TT }
Hand  2:    66.3465 %      66.14%     00.20%      { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    27.8085 %      27.61%     00.20%      { TT }
Hand  2:    72.1915 %      71.99%     00.20%      { KK+, AKs }

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    25.2514 %      25.05%     00.20%      { TT }
Hand  2:    74.7486 %      74.55%     00.20%      { QQ+, AKs }

Why is there less equity in JJ+ then KK+???

[simo_8ball]

Why is there less equity in JJ+ then KK+???

It increases the chance you are against an overpair rather than AK.

[cwik]

Oh I see, i was confused cause under QQ+ it still went down. But i missed that last one did not add in AKo (which is alot of hands I wanna be up against).

Anyways, I call here, and the BB shows AA (was there really any other possiblity?).

[GABMAD]

It really looks like AA-JJ or AK.

[simo_8ball]

It really looks like AA-JJ or AK.

Okay:

CODE

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    66.3465 %      66.14%     00.20%      { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand  2:    33.6535 %      33.45%     00.20%      { TT }

Call.

[copernicus]

Not only should you just call, but 5000 is a terrible amount to raise. Even if the BB doesnt show up in the hand, 5000 gives awesome odds to the orginal raiser and no flop is definitely safe for you at that point. With these stacks, if you arent going to flat call, you need to push.

With such a solid stack you dont need to be as aggressive, so pushing is probably not going to be the right move.