53 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

Blinds: 100-200 no ante
Your Stack: 10,000
Villian Stack: 10,000

Villian (I'm learning :-) raises to 600 from EP. You know that he won't raise from that position with small suited connectors. You put him on the following range of hands:

-Pocket Pair
-A J or better
-KQ

You are next to the button with 99 and call. All others fold.

Flop: J 7 4

Villian bets 1000. You know that Villian will likely make a continuation bet with any of the hands he has. You also know that the player is unlikely to fire any more bullets at the pot unless he has a hand.

[bdc30]

Raise to 2500-3000 and see what he does. Fwiw, I fold if he comes back over the top.

If he flat calls and the turn is lower than my 9, I'm betting/raising, depending what he does.

[navybuttons]

easiest smooth call in the world.

[shpaget]

Well, if you smooth call you will know where you stand by whether or not he leads out the turn.

But, you risk giving him a free shot at that AKQ...and if a ten comes and he bets you probably can't rule out an oesd either. You call, and any card higher than 9 comes out, and he bets, you need to fold...and you only lose the $1000.

You raise to 3000 you definitely find out where you're at...you take the 2500 right then and there, preventing him from drawing to two overs, or you find out in a hurry if you're behind.

I suppose if he came over the top with 88 he'd steal it from you.

But, most times, if he comes over the top, you fold the worse hand, and you lose that 3k.

How often does he have AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,77,AJ and how often does he have AK,AQ,KQ, and 88? Will he do this with the low pocket pairs.

Just based on hand combinations, he has the losing hands more often than the winning hands...but not a lot more.

The times you are already behind you are losing an additional 2k if you raise instead of call.

The times you are ahead, if you only call, 1 in 8 times you lose the 2500 pot, plus your extra 1k for calling instead of raising. (based on the read that he will only bet the turn if he already has a hand, or if he hits his hand)...the times you hit your set are a miniscule factor.

The way I see it, for a raise to be correct hero would have to be ahead 5x for every time he's behind....I don't think he is.

[JoRaff]

You also know that the player is unlikely to fire any more bullets at the pot unless he has a hand.

Because of this, I'm not reraising to 3000 and I'm just calling. I would've like to make it 3000 to keep him from sucking out on me but I like the smooth call. It is the best move.

[DanielNegreanu]

Very interesting analysis. When I post the answer you'll be surprised to learn what some other people would have you do in these types of situations.

Very interesting analysis. When I post the answer you'll be surprised to learn what some other people would have you do in these types of situations.

As a side note, would your answer change at all if you happened to have J-10?

[MR_BIZKITZ]

I probably raise and shut down if he sticks around. I guess you could make a case for folding an underpair too.

[_Great_Dane_]

Villian bets 1000. You know that Villian will likely make a continuation bet with any of the hands he has. You also know that the player is unlikely to fire any more bullets at the pot unless he has a hand.

Based on the givens, I'd call the $1000, and see if villain fires another bullet on the turn. I'd rather be out 10% of my stack than 30% (if I had raised to $3000) if I end up folding on the turn. If villain flopped top pair, or a set, and he fires another bullet on the turn, and I know that my 99 is no good, I can fold. If villain has AK or similar unpaired overcards, there's only about a 13% (1 in 8) chance that he'll pair up on the turn and, if he misses, and if he checks the turn, I'll bet the turn and take it down.

If I'm holding J10, I'd probably play it the same way, but a raise to $3000 would be an option as well.

[nutzbuster]

I would TOTALLY raise here. Put him to the test and find out just where the heck you're at. A raise could well end the hand right there.

Ditto for J-10.

[shpaget]

As a side note, would your answer change at all if you happened to have J-10?

Interesting question...well, you're no longer worried about TT, and you're less worried that he has AJ or JJ.

It would come down to whether he would give up on 99 or TT if you called a flop bet - I'm inclined to believe he would not...that a reasonable player who led out a continuation bet on the flop, and got called, could still believe his 99,TT, maybe even 88 are good....and fire again at the turn. Now, hero with top pair mediocre kicker doesn't know where he stands.

I think I'd raise with TJ to define things some more (or take the pot right there). I think raising an additional 2000 will likely be cheaper than a call you'd need to make on the turn for similar information. If you just called the 1000 on the flop, the pot is now 3500, so a turn bet of 2500-3000 could be expected.

On the other side of the coin, if you are behind you have more outs than 99, so I wouldn't call a call terrible - I just think it leaves you more in the dark.

With 99, if you get bet on the turn the only hand you're beating that he "might" bet with is 88..otherwise, you're fairly certain you're dead. With TJ, there's a couple more possibilities of hands that you beat, and it also reduces the possibilities of a couple hands that beat you.

(I'm making an assumption that 66-22 are out of the picture - and that may be a bad assumption)

[checkymcfold]

i like a call IF the villain isn't tricky enough to take a scary c/r line on the turn if he has a monster.

if we just call here, he gets only one card to improve if he is indeed behind. two overs might get there cheaply, but that does not happen but 1/7-1/10 or so times. if we raise and he comes over the top i feel like the amount of chips we put at risk to find out if we're beat just sucks and does not make that the best play considering how rarely a worse hand gets us on the turn. we can price out those overs on the turn if he checks to us.

the problem for me really lies in whether this guy is good and tricky enough to "continuation bet" a set, AJ (though this hand is probably a bit weak for this sort of line in most cases), or overpair, and then check the turn inducing a bet from a hand like ours that he's going to checkraise. here, we'd run into the same problem of risking a lot of chips to find out that we're beat, and that's gross. if i think someone is capable of making this fancy a play on me OOP, i will often go for my info on the flop and raise it right there to make this sort of play incorrect.

so yeah, i like a call in most spots, and a raise against someone who likes to get fancy with strong hands OOP.

as for J10, that is the kind of hand that can improve more easily on the turn (pick up a gutshot if one of those overs hits, 3 outs for 2p, etc.) and a call seems less risky against a possibly tricky opponent. but that's odd as i think about it, because for some reason i feel like i would be more likely to raise J10 in this spot, even though as i'm thinking about it now it seems like a call is better with J10.


my question is what do we know about what this guy would do if we flat called and he had a hand very similar to ours: 88-1010?

[MrNiceGuy]

The times you are ahead, if you only call, 1 in 8 times you lose the 2500 pot, plus your extra 1k for calling instead of raising. (based on the read that he will only bet the turn if he already has a hand, or if he hits his hand)...the times you hit your set are a miniscule factor.

The way I see it, for a raise to be correct hero would have to be ahead 5x for every time he's behind....I don't think he is.

This makes perfect sense to me, with 99 or JT. All we can beat are AK and AQ. Calling gets us the same info as raising, for a much cheaper price. (Giving villain a free shot at a six-outer roughly half the time is better than charging ourselves and extra 2-3 k the other half the time.)

Raising is even worse with JT than with 99, because it gives villain a chance to reraise us off our probable 5-outer when he has an overpair.

Heck, if villain has us beat half the time, and will reraise when he has us beat and fold when he doesn't, then a pot-sized raise is a terrible play (as we'd be getting worse than 1-1 from the pot on the raise, which would make folding a better play than raising).

[twiggy1535]

I think smooth calling is the best option for several reasons: (1) You can freeze your opponent if he has a hand like AK, AQ or AJ; (2) You don't commit more chips into the pot by raising and risk getting reraised. A call will allow you to get the same information if the opponent fires another bullet on the turn; (3) You keep the pot as small as possible.

[1969_F85]

You also know that the player is unlikely to fire any more bullets at the pot unless he has a hand.

Well, I would call here because he is giving me 2.5-1 pot odds. I know that isn't great, but considering that I think that it is very possible that he has a hand like AK, AQ, maybe Pocket 10's (if I knew he had those I would fold)!!! But this also sets up a chance for me to steal on a 4th or 5th street if he doesn't fire again.

I am really not sure, but I would lean towards calling then see what happens on 4th street. I play more by feel than by mere circumstance. When I am at the table, I can feel the players and almost sense what they have. I know, call me strange, but it works for me.

[Zeatrix]

You also know that the player is unlikely to fire any more bullets at the pot unless he has a hand.

That gave the obvious answer away...

[Ramram84]

I don't like calling here, Even if villain won't fire if the turn misses. I can be pretty sure that if any of the A, K or Q hit the board on the turn that villain will fire again.

I would prefer to find out where I am in this hand. There are no real threatening draws on the board, so if I raise here, I can be 90% sure that if villain continues on in the hand that I am beat.

I love playing against opponents who always make continuation bets on the turn because I love to test them and i'm going to do no different here.

My question is this...

Why would we just call pre-flop in position with 9-9 if we weren't planning on doing something with it? I think it's really weak to just call down past the flop with only a mid PP. We got a good flop so why not follow through and find out if we've won?

P.S. I voted for raise to 3000, but I would be more inclined just to raise it to 2500 because I believe it accomplishes the exact same purpose.

[glebbus]

Call with 99 for me. By raising you risk too many chips in the hand that almost has no potential. it is easy to lay it down when bad turn comes.The bad thing about the raise is that opponent not necessary will fold you even if he has ace high and you will both be coming to see the turn, but just with different pot size.

[Balloon guy]

Raise is best option

smooth call will allow villian to bet next hand, about 2000 and leave us in the same boat we are in now, if he does have 10,10 or set etc. then we are just going to bleed off more chips calling.

We have position, we need to use it.

If he reraises its an easy fold

if he calls and checks we get two cards to improve, maybe get a show down with no more action

if he calls and bets turn we can release hand.

calling is too passive when you have position.

[simo_8ball]

I like smooth calling. He is ahead of us around half the time as it is, and we know he will probably shut down if we have him beat. The only real benefit of raising in this case is to prevent overcards from drawing out on us.

[Ricer98]

I think this a spot to make a defensive call on the flop. Knowing the villan will continuation bet most hands we atleast have to call this one bet. If he leads again on the turn easy laydown. Given his range preflop and the board he pretty much can't be on a draw. If he bets the turn we're beat, as we've allready been told he's probably gonna shut down after one failed continutation bet.

That said, reasons not to raise the flop. Raising preflop commits alot of our chips to the pot. It also forces us to play a big pot, not a favorable spot to be in with a weak holding. Raising to 3000 means we've allready put 3600 of our original 10k in the pot. If we're reraised we have to give the hand up, no question. With the villan just calling the only card I like to see roll off on the turn is a 9. Even if a 2 hits the turn and we're checked to I'm not confortable with a bet in that spot. With 7500 in the pot and 6700 left in out stack there is no amount that can be bet that doesn't commit us to the pot.

This hand to me seems to have small ball poker concepts all over it. Preflop we just call in position with a middle pocket pair. We're seeing a flop for cheap with a deep stack standard small ball play. One the flop, making a defensive call with what could be the best hand. But, not raising because we don't want to commit ourselves to playing a big pot without a big hand. Another standard play in my opinion.

So, my vote, call on the flop and see what happens on the turn. As far as changing the hand to J-10, I think I play it the exact same way. In my opinion top pair bad kicker is no stronger than 99 in this spot. So, in essence, the two are the exact same hand. I still think were beat if bet into twice and must fold accordingly.