College Football #2

[Jadaki 0]

So the popular topic of the day is who is #2 and should play Ohio State for the title. We have been spreading this out over multiple OSu threads so lets make put it all in one place.I pulled the basic arguements for each team from this ESPN article.USC Pros: If the Trojans complete the season 11-1 they'll get the spot and deserve it. The one aspect of a schedule schools can control is nonconference games, and USC's lineup of Arkansas (10-1), Nebraska (8-3) and Notre Dame (10-1) is easily the toughest of the five contenders. (Michigan, by contrast, played Notre Dame, Vanderbilt and two Mid-American Conference teams.) Ten of USC's 12 opponents are bowl eligible. Cons: The Trojans are the only one of the five to suffer a loss against an unranked team (Oregon State).Michigan Pros: Nobody among the five has a better "quality loss" than the Wolverines' 42-39 defeat at Ohio Stadium Saturday. Michigan has played three teams currently in the Top 25 and their combined records are 32-2. Cons: The Wolverines didn't win their conference and haven't shown any ability to beat Ohio State and Troy Smith in three meetings. Why subject the Buckeyes to double jeopardy, having to beat a team they already handled once?ArkansasPros: Nobody else in the discussion is unbeaten in conference play -- and most people would argue that the SEC is tougher this year than either the Big Ten or the Pac-10. And if the Razorbacks, already riding a 10-game winning streak, finish the season by beating LSU (No. 10 BCS) and Florida (No. 4 BCS) to go 12-1, nobody will be on a more powerful roll. Cons: Can you lose by 36 points at home and play for a national title? Certainly not ahead of USC, the team that administered the thrashing in Fayetteville.FloridaPros: During one stretch the Gators played six straight teams now bowl eligible and lost only at Auburn, in a crazed environment, in a game clouded by a questionable call (and review) that tilted the game in the Tigers' favor. By season's end Florida will have played 10 bowl-eligible teams. Cons: The Gators haven't dominated a single SEC opponent on the scoreboard and haven't played a single nonconference opponent currently ranked higher than 50th in the Sagarin ratings.Notre Dame Pros: If the Fighting Irish do what nobody has done in years now -- beat USC in L.A. Memorial Coliseum -- they'll have that going for them. It wouldn't be enough -- but what about a blowout of the Trojans? What if they turn around one of those 31-point losses to USC that got Ty Willingham fired? That would be the biggest victory by anyone on this list. Cons: Same thing that's hindering Arkansas. No way you can rank the Irish ahead of a Michigan team that smoked them by 26 points in South Bend.

[7upncider 0]

Very nice analysis. Im thinking that if USC wins out they will definitely be in. Now the argruements will be Arkansas and Florida. Im gonna go with Florida to win out, winning the SEC championship. If this does play out and USC does lose how do you keep Florida out. If florida does win out, or even Arkansas, how do you not pick them over Michigan who has already lost to the #1 team in the nation. I think Florida or Arkansas have legit complaints if Michigan remains #2 team in the country if either team wins out.Im going out on a limb here, Im thinking ND is going to beat USC in another high scoring game. This will lead to ND being thrown into the mix. I dont think ND should even be considered jumping Michigan due to the whipping Michigan gave them. But the argruement they will put up is, well if we were to play them now, were a better team. All of this is crap if they were to play again the samething would happen. Michigan would put a whipping on them. Im gonna say it will end up being the winner of the SEC. Just dont think USC is gonna stop ND. Heck USC might even lose to UCLA. not saying it will happen but they did lose to an Oregon State team.

[zimmer4141 0]

Because of the way the polls and computers will shake out, I don't think anybody has a chance to jump ahead of Michigan except USC.I can't believe I'm saying this, but go Notre Dame.

[7upncider 0]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but go Notre Dame.

Lol. I got a good laugh out of this. If you hate them as bad as I do then I know the pain it took to say that.I really dont think Florida can jump them but if Arkansas wins out i think they have a shot. But if either wins out and dont get a shot there will be some major hell raised. I personally think the two best teams are Ohio State and Michigan. The problem that everyone is gonna say is Michigan had their chance.

[SilentSnow 1]

Well Im sure you guys already know I think USC should and will play OSU for the title. I actually ran the numbers though, and my guess is that USC is pretty much certain to pass Michigan if they win, and Florida maybe has a 10-30 percent chance depending on the voters. No one else can catch Michigan. ----------------------------Polls---Comp----BCS-----Sch.---Rnk----Proj----Mustlose1.Ohio St.-----(12-0)--1000----1000----1000----Just here for comparison.2.Michigan----(11-1)----910-----960-----926-------------576-----573-----USC.3.USC----------(9-1)-----919-----920-----919-----16-6---571-----589-----none.4.Florida------(10-1)----891-----870-----884-----15-6---546-----562-----USC.5.NotreDame(10-1)-----820-----820-----820------9-1---529-----550-----Fla.6.Arkansas---(10-1)----825-----770-----807-----18-3---474-----524-----USC.I factored in the remaining schedule and ranked teams left to play, then included the teams that probably have to lose still. Rnk and Proj are current schedule strength and projected schedule strength. USC- Nearly guaranteed. Michigans strength of schedule will go from a 5 point advantage to a 16 point disadvantage. This might not seem like much, but the gap between USC(easily # 1 in SOS) will be greater than the gap between Michigan(#2) and the # 10 team. USC has better than a 90 percent chance to pass Michigan in the computers, and it is hard to imagine how they can lose their voting lead without losing.Florida- USC must lose. If they win very impressively in the next 2 games they have a small chance to beat out Michigan, but probably wont quite catch up in the computers. Arkansas killing LSU would help. Chances not good.Notre Dame-Essentially no chance. Michigan will beat them in the computers, and unless they win 45-0, will probably beat them in the polls also.Arkansas-No chance at all. Even if they come close to or pass Michigan in the polls, the computers will give Michigan a big advantage.

[7upncider 0]

anyway it works out im pretty sure your gonna hear a ton of bitcing going on. I dont think anyones gonna be happy no matter what happens.

[Jadaki 0]

Arkansas-No chance at all. Even if they come close to or pass Michigan in the polls, the computers will give Michigan a big advantage.

Thats kind of whats crappy with preseason rankings. I expect Arkansas is the best team in the SEC today, but they are going to have to beat two top ten teams to prove it. If they pull that off and USC runs the table they get shut out anyway because of the head to head game.I also think ND has no shot of getting in, regardless of what happens. But I will be cheering for them against USC.Florida isn't dominating anyone, they aren't impressing voters with these games that they are pulling out miracle plays to win (SC anyone).Right now I think USC is in the drivers seat, they control their own destiny even though they lost to a unranked team. Compared to Michigan's one loss thats a joke, but they have beat a few good teams so they have a good chance of making up for it.I hope Notre Dame is up by 18 with like a minute left and Quinn tears his ACL. Thats the only way I can justify cheering for Notre Dame

[thegrassisred 0]

Hey dont say that..the Lions might end up drafting that *******, like it or not. :(Anyways, USC wins out, they are in. Really no debate about that..you can argue they shouldn't, but they will, so its a moot point. Florida has escaped some of those SEC games, so they have to win out AND be very impressive to pass Michigan. Arkansas has no chance virtually, because they need USC to lose, which also hurts their SoS and helps Michigan's at the same time...double whammy.

[showstopper24 0]

I thought this would be an intersting story.I am in LA for a family vacation. The real reason to come however, was for my sister to look at USC (she is a senior). I had nothing else to do today so i went wither her and my parents for the tour. Everybody is extremely excited for the game against Notre Dame. My dad wanted to get is tickets for the game. It was obviously sold out but the concierge at the hotel was able to hook us up with these. The worst possible seats at the stadium are about 375. If we wanted parking it is over 250.My dad and i wanted to go but since we are bucks fan, we didn't want to spend this much on tickets.On a separate note: i think michigan deserves it. I hate the wolverenes but i think if their only loss was a three point loss to the bucks, they are the second best team.

[XXEddie 0]

Only USC has a chance and they have to beat ND in convincing fashion, otherwise we will have a OSU?Mich rematch...though Im still think that is BS

[7upncider 0]

Only USC has a chance and they have to beat ND in convincing fashion, otherwise we will have a OSU?Mich rematch...though Im still think that is BS

If USC wins there is no doubt about them being number 2. It wont even be close with them and michigan.

[showstopper24 0]

im in los angeles now and everyone is pumped for the game. i wore a USC shirt and everyone was clapping when i walked past

[Jadaki 0]

If USC wins there is no doubt about them being number 2. It wont even be close with them and michigan.

Not nessesarily.Remember Michigan destroyed ND by 26 at their stadium. USC needs to beat them convincingly or people will compare the two and decided Michigan is better. If they squeak by ND, the people who have ND as nunber 2 right now might change their mind based on that result. What could make that interesting is if ND wins, we could end up with two rematches in bowl games. OSU/Mich and USC/ND in the rose bowl.

[thegrassisred 0]

USC doesnt need to beat them convincingly, as they will overtake michigan in the computers with the win. Unless the human voters decide to put michigan back at 2, which is unlikely.

[showstopper24 0]

how many more games does usc have?

[thegrassisred 0]

ND and UCLA

[Jadaki 0]

And Arkansas is out of contention now...

[bmtphs05 0]

Florida holds off Florida State, 21-14.

[Jadaki 0]

Florida holds off Florida State, 21-14.

Another unimpressive win against an unranked opponent.Looks like ND is getting exposed again, showing how they have been overranked all year long. If the game keeps going this way, they don't deserve a BCS bid at all, they shouldn't even be top 15.

[Jadaki 0]

How many times did ND go for it on 4th down, I quit watching sometime in the 3rd quarter when I knew that they had zero chance of coming back. USC > MSU, no miracle comeback for ND.So unless UCLA pulls some kind of freakish upset then it looks like OSU vs USC for the title. Whats disgusting is that Michigan will end up playing that crappy ND team again in the Rose Bowl. Lets have a rematch of a 26 point blowout that has absolutely no meaning to the players at this point. I'd much rather play one of the other conference champs, SEC or something...

[zimmer4141 0]

Yep, barring a huge performance from UCLA or a total collapse from USC, it's gonna be USC vs. OSU. USC deserves it with the schedule they played, no complaints from me even though I'd like to see a rematch.Seriously though, when will people realize that Notre Dame simply was not very good. Best win over Penn State, took two huge comebacks over Michigan State and UCLA, and got blown out twice by top 3 football teams. Notre Dame is just not a top 10 football team this year.

[Jadaki 0]

Article comparing USC & Michigans wins over ND USC supporters don't want to compare this...

There is no denying that Southern California’s 44-24 win over Notre Dame on Saturday night was dominating.But as the Bowl Championship Series computers whirred and spit out the Trojans as the new No. 2 team in the land Sunday night, it dawned on me – we now have an apples-to-apples comparison of USC and No. 3 Michigan – the teams’ performances against the Fighting Irish, their lone common opponent.As the debate over who should face No. 1 Ohio State in the BCS title game on Jan. 8 supposedly comes to “style points,” what we have here is some substance.A simple study of the boxscores shows the Wolverines were even more demonstrative in dismantling Notre Dame, and by a fairly significant margin.Michigan had the edge over USC against Notre Dame in the following categories:# Points for: 47-44 (3).# Points against: 21-24 (3).# Total yards allowed: 273-404 (131).# Rushing yards allowed: 32-130 (98).# Passing yards allowed: 241-274 (33).# Turnovers forced: 5-1 (4).# Rushing yards: 148-139 (9)USC, meanwhile held slight edges in just two categories:# Net offensive yards: 404-368 (36).# Passing yards: 265-220 (45).The evidence seems pretty empirical, especially when you factor in that the Wolverines’ lone loss came by three points at top-ranked Ohio State (12-0), while the Trojans lost at unranked Oregon State (8-4) by two.Strength of schedule? USC faced 10 teams that will play in bowls, Michigan seven.As you do the math, it seems clear that the Maize and Blue should be making their way to the desert for a date with the Buckeyes, not the Cardinal and Gold.Crazy talk, I know. Next, I’ll be advocating a playoff to determine the champion, you know the way it’s done in every other division of college football.

Michigan was more impressive on the road vs ND than USC was at home.

[king_tanner 84]

I kinda hope UCLA finds a way to beat USC even though it probably won't happen. I think due to the OP's stats Michigan should be in it. Michigan narrowly lost to #1 and USC lost to Oregon State. It looks like those dang computers aren't going to budge though. I know they have been debating about this for years but there should really be some kind of playoff... overtime in college is retarded also.

[SilentSnow 1]

USC supporters don't want to compare this...Michigan was more impressive on the road vs ND than USC was at home.

This is one of the more flawed comparisons I have seen. I'll address a few points before I make a more detailed one sometime soon.-He is only comparing 2 games. It is completely disingenuous to not use the other 10 as well.-He doesnt even bother to check whether Oregon St is currently ranked. They are.-He compares the stats for one game, but doesnt compare for the Ohio State or Oregon State game. Michigan was one of the few teams in the top 20 to allow 500 yards this year in any game. Michigan got most of the big breaks and were very lucky to even come within 3 points. For USC, everything went wrong against Oregon St. But they significantly outgained OSU and were still extremely close to pulling out the win. -Also, he gets his turnover comparison exactly wrong. Here is a better analysis of the effect-The USC win against Notre Dame is just as impressive or more so than Michigan's if you factor in turnovers. In any particular game turnovers are mostly luck, yet have a very significant outcome on the game. I would say that each turnover is worth around 4 points. Michigan had a +4 turnover margin vs Notre Dame, while USC had a -2. As it turns out, Michigan has averaged exactly 1 better turnover per game than USC this year. Even if you give Michigan one more turnover based on season statistics, the other 5 were luck. When you factor in the points from turnovers, the scores are-Michigan 35 Notre Dame 21.USC 44 Notre Dame 16.The rest really was just luck. If they kept playing the games again and again, Michigan could almost never expect to get a +6 turnover margin compared to USC.I should hardly have to explain extreme positive variance to poker players.

[supertouch 0]

Yep, barring a huge performance from UCLA or a total collapse from USC, it's gonna be USC vs. OSU. USC deserves it with the schedule they played, no complaints from me even though I'd like to see a rematch.Seriously though, when will people realize that Notre Dame simply was not very good. Best win over Penn State, took two huge comebacks over Michigan State and UCLA, and got blown out twice by top 3 football teams. Notre Dame is just not a top 10 football team this year.

would you conisder the win against Ga Tech a higher quality victory?i'm not trying to defend ND, because i told all my friends from the start that ND was overrated going into this year. ND plays a week schedule, so when they go up against good teams (Mich. and USC) they can't hang.