9 replies to this topic

[shpaget]

First hand of a $50 tourney - 3000 chips each, blinds 25/25.

UTG I get AhAs, I raise to 100.

CO calls, Button calls, blinds fold.

Flop comes Tc4c3h (pot 350)


I bet 200, call, call

Turn 3d (pot 950)

I bet 500, CO raises to 1500, button folds.

My turn...


Methinks folding would be wise.

Or am I simply assuming the worst?

Little horns and bells and lights are going off in my head...little voices scream "he flopped a set...he's got tens full!"

Am I paranoid?

[trystero]

No, it's not paranoid at all. This isn't the flop you're looking for with aces. You want it to come Q/K/A high so your opponent can overplay TP. You don't want it to come all ugly like, get two callers and a raise on the turn (with the button left to act, no less).

His raise is kinda odd if he has a fullhouse, because he presumably wants the flush to continue drawing, but he may figure that he can stack your overpair here and now. If he's got something like 99 I just tip my cap and move on.

[Briguy]

Tough fold, but probably good. The flush draw is more likely to raise on the flop, if it raises anywhere. The problem is that he may think AT or something like that is the best hand. Any reads? Does this tourney play at all like a $4.40?

[shpaget]

Tough fold, but probably good. The flush draw is more likely to raise on the flop, if it raises anywhere. The problem is that he may think AT or something like that is the best hand. Any reads? Does this tourney play at all like a $4.40?

No reads...first hand, never seen the guy before.

There is a mix of skills here...

There are players who, on the button, would call AK to the river, others who would fold it, and others who would raise it, either to make a play, or because they like it.
There are players who would fold AT or JJ and even QQ.
There are players who would think AT, JJ or even 99 are good here, and overplay them.
There are players who could have A3s here....hell, K3s....hell Q3s.

A typical player would call KT/QT/JT even T9 to the river...that same player could call pf, and then call or raise AT on the flop/turn/river....they could do that with JJ too...even QQ.

[Yahkin]

Is the CO a good enough player to try a steal at this point?

You've shown strength throughout the hand, so he knows the 3 did not likely improve your hand and could be taking a shot at the pot.

Without any reads though, I have to fold this. Calling PF with A3 would be pretty easy. Calling the flop bet with bottom pair top kicker would be easy. Hitting the set on the turn makes me happy and now I want to get paid off.

[Briguy]

I'd discount QQ-KK as possibilities because of the lack of reraise. TT, 44, 33 are definitely possible, and A3s, although you may be able to eliminate all/many A3s's based on the suits in your hand and on the board. ATs-T9s, JJ, maybe an aggressive 99, 88, are the likely hands that you are beating that might bet like this in hand 1. Might.

I think you have to channel Daniel and get chatty with the guy, and go through your internal encyclopedia of live tells. Even that might not help. Good fold. Puke. Move on. Kill him in the parking lot if he tables 72o.

[fckthis]

With no read, I gotta be incline to fold this.

Unless he's putting you on whiffed overcards, I cant see this raise being a stone cold bluff. And let's assume, because there was no re-raise preflop, that he's not holding an overpair to the board.

It just seems to early for someone to overplay TP, but then again there are alot of donks at cash.

[copernicus]

He can make this play with almost any pair, putting you on overcards and trying to shut you out of a 6 card draw. In his spot I dont think id chase you away with that large a raise, also. Youre pot committed if you call, which will make you think twice. Id either flat call or min raise in his spot.

I think you have to call this.

[shpaget]

He can make this play with almost any pair, putting you on overcards and trying to shut you out of a 6 card draw. In his spot I dont think id chase you away with that large a raise, also. Youre pot committed if you call, which will make you think twice. Id either flat call or min raise in his spot.

I think you have to call this.

I went all-in, basically following yours and fckthis's thinking:

a. if I call I'm not folding the river (except, perhaps, if a ten comes)
b. there are a selection of donks at this tourney who will play AT, KT, JJ, QQ and even 99 this way
c. I didn't think he'd raise with a tight here (though A3 was possible)

d. I THINK, THINK, BELIEVE, HOPE, that over the long run the above hands outweigh the times he has TT, 44 and 33, A3 (and if he has 43 or T3, I puke)


He had 44....this time. River came a duck..."seat open"..."pit boss, any seats in the cash game?"


Oh well, that's under my belt and over with - first time I ever went out the first hand of a MTT. Well, Cloutier says that AA is the only hand you should do this with...hope he's proud.

[GABMAD]

I went all-in, basically following yours and fckthis's thinking:

a. if I call I'm not folding the river (except, perhaps, if a ten comes)
b. there are a selection of donks at this tourney who will play AT, KT, JJ, QQ and even 99 this way
c. I didn't think he'd raise with a tight here (though A3 was possible)

d. I THINK, THINK, BELIEVE, HOPE, that over the long run the above hands outweigh the times he has TT, 44 and 33, A3 (and if he has 43 or T3, I puke)
He had 44....this time. River came a duck..."seat open"..."pit boss, any seats in the cash game?"
Oh well, that's under my belt and over with - first time I ever went out the first hand of a MTT. Well, Cloutier says that AA is the only hand you should do this with...hope he's proud.

I think in the long run, you've made the right play. Like there are so many possible hands here since your bets look like continuation AK bets. I think his range is wide and you made the right play. Tough luck...what casion was this tourny in btw?