40 replies to this topic

[David_Nicoson]

2/5 NLHE

I raise to 15 UTG with JJ. I have about $500.
Folds to CO who raises to 30. He has 50 behind. I'm pretty sure he has AK or AQ.
BB raises to 75. He has me covered.

I figure the BB probably has a medium pair (99 or TT) that he'd like to play heads-up against the short-stack. But he might have a big hand.

What's your line?

[DaBruins]

I definitely raise more utg. Making it $15 is a small standard raise in this game that usually won't get it done. I don't like the spot we're in though....i'd reluctantly fold it without some good reads.

[cwik]

I definitely raise more utg. Making it $15 is a small standard raise in this game that usually won't get it done. I don't like the spot we're in though....i'd reluctantly fold it without some good reads.

agreed.

[David_Nicoson]

As a intermediate question, what's your line if you know that the short stack has exactly AK and the blind has exactly the range 77-JJ?

[Whiskey16]

As a intermediate question, what's your line if you know that the short stack has exactly AK and the blind has exactly the range 77-JJ?

If you're that confident in his range, and you think you've got him beat HU, then wouldn't the line be to call?

If you re-raise, you're now limiting what the BB will put in, and if you're right on the AK/AQ for the short stack, you've effectively eliminated the BB from the hand with your re-raise, and you're racing for the entire pot. You've limited your loss, but you've limited your gain.

If you're 100% confident that you've got the best hand, I think you want the BB in and hope he keeps betting on the flop.

That said, in any live game I've seen, your raise seems a bit light UTG, and if he's re-raising you there, why don't we think he's stronger than a middle pair?

[Royal_Tour]

you're beat,

I fold.

[fckthis]

If your read on BB is weaker then your holding, I think its a call. Hopefully he puts more money in the pot.

[fleung22]

2/5 NLHE

I raise to 15 UTG with JJ. I have about $500.
Folds to CO who raises to 30. He has 50 behind. I'm pretty sure he has AK or AQ.
BB raises to 75. He has me covered.

I figure the BB probably has a medium pair (99 or TT) that he'd like to play heads-up against the short-stack. But he might have a big hand.

What's your line?

One thing I don't do during a game is doubt myself. If I don't believe in me then I shouldn't be playing.

If your reads are right and you think BB is capable or reraising in this situation with a medium pair then I'd raise to $200.

The short stack's in for sure but if you can make BB fold that'll be some nice dead money in the pot for your expected coin toss.

If BB can call the bet or come over the top then at least you have a better idea of where you stand.

[David_Nicoson]

I think the right play is to flat call preflop and absorb a bet on any flop. The problem with raising preflop to ~$200 is that I get only about $40 in dead money expectation if I'm right, but I put a whole bunch of money at risk to do it.

I went against my read and folded. Short-stack had AK. Blind had TT.

[Actuary]

you're beat,

I fold.

there is 115 in the pot + 50 if CO calls.
CO can't raise

We have to call, 55.

Don't we have odds (implied) just to hit a set at the very least?

I don't like folding without a flop.

just asking.

[delasoul]

Since my pre-flop bet wasn't big enough it really puts me at a disadvantage and I would have folded this pre-flop. I honestly depending on my position like to limp in with J's and see a flop.

I ran quick numbers just to look at percentages
Ak against JJ preflop is a 57%/42% favorite. In a three way pot even if re-raiser had something as bad a QJ suited and you called the re-raise you are actually behind.

If you had a strong read that player was on a lower pocket pair then I would call and play accordinly to the flop. But either one could be playing overcards J's and above. (imho) long term playing jacks on a raise and a re-raise would be -ev.

[David_Nicoson]

Has everybody been reading Harrington and Sklansky?

Screw opening for an overbet out of position.

I want to open with pairs down to 66. I want to stand a reraise and take a flop. I want my oppponents to put in the second raise when I have a big hand. I don't want to leak information about my hand by changing up the opening bet.

[delasoul]

Well I think you either raise big with jacks or you limp oop. That hand is so vulnerable especially in a three way flop that it can't withstand a re-raise in most cases. If you were going to put that small a bet pre-flop I could see you doing it with queens and higher but not jacks.

1) Short stack is going all-in no matter what you do limp or raise. I think by raising bigger you force 10's into a tougher decision. I think he would be more inclined to call the re-raise from short stack as opposed re-raising. If you made the bet higher and short stack pushed all-in I doubt 10's would call with you still left to act. You could be essentially heads up here with your read being right that he had two overcards.

[DaBruins]

Has everybody been reading Harrington and Sklansky?

Screw opening for an overbet out of position.

I want to open with pairs down to 66. I want to stand a reraise and take a flop. I want my oppponents to put in the second raise when I have a big hand. I don't want to leak information about my hand by changing up the opening bet.

Don't change the opening bet, just increase the opening bet. Making it 15 is a quite small preflop raise in every one of the 2-5 games i've been in. Most typical raises in the games i've been in are to 25, especially if we are UTG and don't necessarily want to see a bunch of callers behind us.

[David_Nicoson]

Don't change the opening bet, just increase the opening bet. Making it 15 is a quite small preflop raise in every one of the 2-5 games i've been in. Most typical raises in the games i've been in are to 25, especially if we are UTG and don't necessarily want to see a bunch of callers behind us.

It's certainly typical, but I can't beat people if try to emulate them. It's just setting me up to play big hands out of position with one pair.

[army_vet8857]

2/5 NLHE

I raise to 15 UTG with JJ. I have about $500.
Folds to CO who raises to 30. He has 50 behind. I'm pretty sure he has AK or AQ.
BB raises to 75. He has me covered.

I figure the BB probably has a medium pair (99 or TT) that he'd like to play heads-up against the short-stack. But he might have a big hand.

What's your line?

No offense but you may want to think about this situation differently. It appears the detail concering your thoughts are geared towards tournement play rather than a ring game which IMO is not a great way to play a cash game.

Although I dont mitigate the importance of stack size's in a cash game (help determine likely holdings) their relevance is not as high as it would be in a tourney (if your bankrolled right you dont really worry about if you have to rebuy). When I'm in a cash game I really dont care who has me covered.

IMO Its an easy fold. In this situation who cares about implied odds....your gonna lose more by calling preflop than what you would make if you flop a set.

This is a classic example of putting myslef in a bad situation later on in the hand. flop comes 279o and the BB makes a big bet.......do you fold the JJ? You probaly would so why would you call the bet preflop. Not to mention you have to beat two people rather than one.

Of coures there are holes in my theroy as well but to me its an easy fold as you can most likely will find better oppurtunities to gain money playing after the flop rather than preflop.

But I do strongly suggest you use a different frame of mind in a cash game rather than use tourny strat. just my opinion....for what it worth




oh yeah how would you play this hand differently if it was TT or QQ. I willing to bet you play them drastically diffently than you played the JJ.

[David_Nicoson]

No offense but you may want to think about this situation differently. It appears the detail concering your thoughts are geared towards tournement play rather than a ring game which IMO is not a great way to play a cash game.

Although I dont mitigate the importance of stack size's in a cash game (help determine likely holdings) their relevance is not as high as it would be in a tourney (if your bankrolled right you dont really worry about if you have to rebuy). When I'm in a cash game I really dont care who has me covered.

I hardly ever play a tournament, so it's much more likely that my cash game mentality infects my tournament play.

IMO Its an easy fold. In this situation who cares about implied odds....your gonna lose more by calling preflop than what you would make if you flop a set.

This is a classic example of putting myslef in a bad situation later on in the hand. flop comes 279o and the BB makes a big bet.......do you fold the JJ? You probaly would so why would you call the bet preflop. Not to mention you have to beat two people rather than one.

I would not like that flop, since I expect him to have a hand like 77 or 99.

Of coures there are holes in my theroy as well but to me its an easy fold as you can most likely will find better oppurtunities to gain money playing after the flop rather than preflop.

If I fold (which I did), I won't have any opportunity to play after the flop on this hand. The short stack is a regular player. Nobody's going to run out of cash. Playing or folding this hand won't deprive me of any opportunities in future hands. So I don't get your point here.

But I do strongly suggest you use a different frame of mind in a cash game rather than use tourny strat. just my opinion....for what it worth
oh yeah how would you play this hand differently if it was TT or QQ. I willing to bet you play them drastically diffently than you played the JJ.

OK, good question. I fold the tens but I call with QQ.

[Actuary]

No offense but you may want to think about this situation differently.

1st off: I got nothing but love for the vets.

2nd off: that was totally ignorant analysis.

David plays CASH games a lot.
He has a CASH game mentality. If you read more before posting, you would know that
Whether our opponents have us covered, or at least having some idea of their stack, is quite relevant.
Just like implied odds are. Say flop comes J67. Do you think we are getting paid off by QQ/KK/AA pretty nicely here? That's why stacks matter.

We already figure low stack is in for his last 50, getting like 3:1 if we call. So we're calling 55 into about 170. We'll hit a set 1 of 8.5 times, So we need to make 55*7.5 ~ 400. THat is 230 more. I don't think that is hard to do against any hand beating us here, that puts in the 3rd raise.

We can even consider shoving, as AA/KK may not isolate with that 3rd raise here, and it may be that they share some overcards. I wouldn't play that way, but I"m a bit timid with JJ. Surely, we can see a flop though.

Just learn a bit about posters before making pretentious assumptions

[David_Nicoson]

there is 115 in the pot + 50 if CO calls.
CO can't raise

We have to call, 55.

Don't we have odds (implied) just to hit a set at the very least?

I don't like folding without a flop.

just asking.

The best case for us is if we get our whole stack in with the set. The blind matches our stack plus the we get the 80 from cut-off.

500 + 80 : (75-15)
580:60 = 9.7:1

Ciaffone has the 5/10 rule, which would tell us not to call. I'll crunch anyway.

If we always stack the BB and we always win we make a set, then we'd make a good profit. Generically, if we catch our jack we still lose 20% of the time against an overpair. I'm pretty sure the cut-off has two big cards, so that improves our chances a bit.

CODE

Board: Jc
Dead:  Ac Kd

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    84.4176 %      84.23%     00.19%      { JJ }
Hand  2:    15.5824 %      15.39%     00.19%      { QQ+ }

net EV when catching a jack = (1100)(0.84)-500 = 436
net EV when catching a jack but losing the main = ( 1100 - 3(80) )(0.84) - 500 = 225

I'm going to use one example to make an approximation for our chances of losing the main against AK after catching the jack.

CODE

Board: Jc
Dead:  Qc Qd

            equity (%)      win (%)    tie (%)
Hand  1:    94.1751 %      94.01%     00.16%      { JJ }
Hand  2:    05.8249 %      05.66%     00.16%      { AKo }

And then put it together:

CODE

Prob.    EV       Product    Event
0.872    -60.00    -52.35    Miss/lose all
0.120    436.84     52.43    J/Win main
0.008    225.84      1.70    J/Lose main
------------------------------------------
1.000               1.78

Wow, that's close. It's just barely better than break-even if we are guaranteed that the overpair stacks off. There's some chance he won't, so it's still a fold if we're playing with the assumption that we're behind, imho.

I'm really tired. I almost certainly screwed something up in all that.

[Actuary]

Ciaffone has the 5/10 rule

come again?

Generically, if we catch our jack we still lose 20% of the time against an overpair.

why ?

*****************

What I want to tell myself is: We are going to win and stack an over pair enough to play for implied odds because the times we don't stack them, are compensated by the times we win UI. However, I can't figure out how to play this for both set value and UI value on an undercard flop. I tired, too.