Game, Set...match? (1/2)

[CobaltBlue 662]

Didn't like the table stats for 2/4 and was multitabling, so I decided to sit down at one of my old haunts.Bodog 1/2 NLHE (9-handed)Cobalt $307BB $152Cobalt is CO w/ 9 9 . BB is a competent TAG and probably views me similarly. I haven't played with him in a year, but I used to play with him fairly regularly. SB and MP3 are weak players (loose pre-flop, passive, tight post-flop).Pre-flop:3 folds, MP3 calls, Cobalt calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB checksFlop ($8): Q 3 T (4 players)SB checks, BB checks, MP3 checks, Cobalt checksTurn ($8): 9 (4 players)SB checks, BB bets $10, 1 fold, Cobalt raises to $30, 1 fold, BB goes all-in for $120 more, Cobalt ? ($120 to win $188)As for pre-flop, I usually mix up my play in that spot by raising sometimes and calling other times. As for the flop, I probably would've taken a stab at it, but I'd just been recently "caught" late position stabbing.

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

Massive over bet. At first I thought "Made Staight?" but the over bet doesn't make sense for someone holding the nuts. This smells more like a semi-bluff with a Straight+ Flush Draw.

[DonkSlayer 1]

Nah, I think we fold. TAG's don't necessarily bet out with OESD's from the blinds, and he could've easily had that here and wants to fight against the flush draw that he thinks somebody may be on. We're behind all sets except 3's as well. This is a call against a LAG at a 6-handed table, but I don't think we're ahead often enough here against a player we respect. I push A LOT with the nuts on Bodog NL tables.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I really go either way on this. He doesn't put you on a set, because you can't slowplay a set on a flop like that, but then again, you didn't flop a set.He could be pushing 2 pair, a stright or a combo hand. He could even have a set of 3s.Seeing as we're only losing ot 2 hands (J8 and KJ), which he could have, and we're crushing everything else, I vote call here. We have 10 outs against the straight and he's drawing slim to dead if he holds anything else.I call here.

[DonkSlayer 1]

I really go either way on this. He doesn't put you on a set, because you can't slowplay a set on a flop like that, but then again, you didn't flop a set.He could be pushing 2 pair, a stright or a combo hand. He could even have a set of 3s.Seeing as we're only losing ot 2 hands (J8 and KJ), which he could have, and we're crushing everything else, I vote call here. We have 10 outs against the straight and he's drawing slim to dead if he holds anything else.I call here.

I think we can allow him a set of 10's. He also pushed over the top when somebody raised him on a bit of a scare card. I know it's really really close.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I think we can allow him a set of 10's. He also pushed over the top when somebody raised him on a bit of a scare card. I know it's really really close.

Yeah, I don't know about the set of 10s. I think most people are raising preflop with it, or at least leading the flop. It might be in his range, but that's not the hand I'm worried about.The other thing you gotta consider is that his stack size doesn't allow him to repop it and fold if you push. If he reraises, then he'll have bet like 70 or 80 more and he'll only have like 50 back. That kind of means that if he's got 2 pair, he's either gonna fold (unlikely) or push. Calling just seems very bad given the coordiation of the board.I think it's so close and given that I'm only going to assign him 2 hands (KJ and J8) that I'm losing to, but still drawing very live against, that I gotta call here.Just my opinion of course.

[DonkSlayer 1]

Yeah, I don't know about the set of 10s. I think most people are raising preflop with it, or at least leading the flop. It might be in his range, but that's not the hand I'm worried about.The other thing you gotta consider is that his stack size doesn't allow him to repop it and fold if you push. If he reraises, then he'll have bet like 70 or 80 more and he'll only have like 50 back. That kind of means that if he's got 2 pair, he's either gonna fold (unlikely) or push. Calling just seems very bad given the coordiation of the board.I think it's so close and given that I'm only going to assign him 2 hands (KJ and J8) that I'm losing to, but still drawing very live against, that I gotta call here.Just my opinion of course.

Mmmm but we're getting only 1.33 to 1 on our money and are a 4-1 dog if he does flip a straight. Meeeh. Dammit. I would probably gripe for about 5 mins if I was in this hand, before i finally did something. Don't think he'd flat-call with 2per huh?

[Acid_Knight 2]

Mmmm but we're getting only 1.33 to 1 on our money and are a 4-1 dog if he does flip a straight. Meeeh. Dammit. I would probably gripe for about 5 mins if I was in this hand, before i finally did something. Don't think he'd flat-call with 2per huh?

What does he do with his 2 pair on the river? Check call any bet? If I'm there and I got like Q9 or something, I'm in a really bad spot after getting raised and I'm really looking at it as a push or fold situation. It's just my opinion, but I think calling with 2 pair is really bad cause then you'll have NO CLUE where you're at, especially if the flush draw gets there.I know that the pot odds aren't really in our favor, but I think that we're ahead more than half of the time here. There are just too many hands that he can have, where he can legitimately feel like pushing, that we are beating. Any 2 pair hand, or draw, or combo pair/draw or even the bottom set. We're beating all of those hands.If he turns over 2 pair, he's got 4 outs and is an 11-1 dog with one card to come. Based on the fact that I'm almost never dead (against the set of Tens) then I'm calling here becuase I'll know that if I'm behind, that I have 10 outs.It's not an immediate call or anything, but I think it's one I gotta make based on the situation.

[CobaltBlue 662]

I actually threw this into an EV calculation and realized why it was such a hard decision. It's quite close mathematically. If I assign him 50% to have the straight and 50% to have some sort of good combo draw (flush/straight/two pair), then it's marginally a call. The problem is that if that gets adjusted to something like 60-70% chance of him having the straight (and at the time I considered it 75-80%), then based on the pot odds, it turns into a fold."Drawing quite live" to a full house against a straight isn't quite the same on the turn as it is on the flop. And these odds are crummy drawing odds.That said, I reluctantly folded. I asked him whether he had the straight. He didn't really answer me directly, but seemed to try to give me the impression that he didn't.

[DonkSlayer 1]

Cobalt, miss flopping a set about 20 times in a row, and then hit like 4 of the next 5, on Bodog? That's been my experience. They usually hold up for me though.