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variance ?


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#1 bourbenz

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Posted 28 March 2005 - 03:02 PM

when do you stop calling it variance and start calling it bad luck, I mean damn what good are odds when you lose ten hands in a row as the favorite on the turn.last hour playing micro no limit on party raise 5 dollars with jj on the button, flop is low junk move in for another 5 guy calls with 66 hits a 6 on the turn.limp in for a minimum raise with 10 8 hearts in the big blind flop comes 889 minimum bet to me check raise 2 dollars turn is a seven hearts giving me a set aflush draw and open ended straight draw go all inn for 15 dollars get called by kk rivers a king.and many many more this week. I mean you can't win them all but damn how many times can you move in with an obviously superior hand and lose? before you think your jinxed?

#2 AndrewBlack

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Posted 28 March 2005 - 03:06 PM

Well look through the topic list on the forum. You will find 50 similar topics. I'm afraid your not the only person thats ever had bad luck. Sorry for sounding kinda annoyed here but we get ALOT of topics like this, and I don't know what you want people to tell you, there really is no answer.Just bad luck.

#3 BigDMcGee

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Posted 28 March 2005 - 03:30 PM

OR a back rub? Maybe a humdigity? What do you want to hear, that you are obviously cursed, born under a bad sign? Dude, if you think that you are unnaturally lucky, why would you play cards? It's bad enough that you're unlucky, but then you'd be unlucky and dumb. Beats happen, bad streaks happen. Deal with it or quit.

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#4 bourbenz

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Posted 28 March 2005 - 04:32 PM

blow me, I was just ranting.

#5 BigDMcGee

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Posted 28 March 2005 - 04:35 PM

All you needed was a humdigity, and you'd cheer right up...

"We are only wise in knowing that we know nothing"
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"Dust. Wind. Dude."
-Ted Theodore Logan

SN: BigDMcGee on Stars and UB. I do NOT have a full tilt account because those Richers won't give me rakeback.

#6 UglyJimStudly

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Posted 29 March 2005 - 10:47 AM

bourbenz said:

when do you stop calling it variance and start calling it bad luck, I mean damn what good are odds when you lose ten hands in a row as the favorite on the turn.
It depends how superstitious you are, and how much poker you've played. The longer you play, the more likely you are to have seen a bad streak; the more superstitious you are, the more likely you are to decide that the bad streak is somehow directed at you personally rather than just normal variance.I've been on a bad streak for about my past 30 hours of live play, which of course feels awful while it's going on. Among other things, I've flopped the nut straight three times during that period, and each time lost on the river (twice to runner-runner full houses). I've had pocket kings twice, and both times somebody else had pocket aces. And so on. But in the larger scheme of things, 30 hours of "bad luck" is nothing, a drop in the bucket. It could go on 100 hours more, or it could break in my very next session; no way to tell, so no reason to obsess over it. Play good poker, and the luck will take care of itself.

#7 bourbenz

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Posted 03 April 2005 - 10:24 PM

Well Im two weeks into a losing session havent had a positive day yet, depleted nearly my entire bankroll moved so far down in limits I don't even think its considered gambling anymore. :D but seriously according to my stats I'm seeing the flop 30-35% of the time only playing premium pairs, or suited connectors in position, I have had aces cracked 12 times this week won 4 times. Ks cracked 6 times, won 3 times, jacks (I don't even want to talk about jacks) queens and tens have been the most profitable by far. But I have lost 22 hands where I was 90 percent or better to win on the turn, this week which makes turning a profit quite hard.) So any time the poker gods want to stop making my aces a dog to 22-1 draws I would be very gracious, lol And what the hell is up with k2? I've had aces cracked twice at the same table from k2 then a nut straight with k2 geeze.




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