ok, i expected most of these responses.here is what my thinking was in the moment:1. there is an overcard on the board.2. the board is three-suited and i'm not drawing to the nut flush, so my flush draw is probably no good (i.e. i could be up against some A
).3. my gutshot is most likely useless, or i am only drawing to one out.4. i could be drawing to running outs if i'm against a made flush.based on these reasons, i folded in 10 seconds. it sucked, but i thought it was an easy fold.however, the more i think about this hand, the more i feel that i should have called. yes, almost all of you said fold, and calling here seems stupid, but let me explain.he would not have AA or KK. he would not have taken so long to think pre-flop (it was past the point of acting IMO) and i also knew he doesn't slowplay big pairs pre-flop (i.e. he would not smooth-call my reraise). i reasonably concluded that i was NOT up against an overpair (aces) or a set of kings.i also mistakenly assumed that i might be up against an A
. the only hands he would have with this card would be AKo or AQo/AJo/ATo/A9o. the only possible suited ace would be AJs. he wouldn't call my reraise with any other suited ace, and he wouldn't hesitate so much with AKo (granted, you all wouldn't know this, but i know that he thinks of AKo as a premium hand rather than a drawing hand, and he wouldn't fold to a reraise). based on this, IF he has the A
, he either has a flush (AJs) or is drawing ONLY to the flush (AKo is not a possibility, but AQo/AJo/ATo are possible). i would be drawing nearly dead to AJs, but i would be ahead of AQo/AJo/ATo.finally, consider what hands i could possibly be up against:1. made flush. only realistically possible with A
J
. against this, i am drawing very slim. however, this is extremely unlikely. his move on the flop just doesn't make any sense, and he would not instantly push with the nuts here, overbetting the pot.2. nut flush draw with A
. as i explained above, the worst case that i ruled out would be AKo (pair of kings and nut flush draw) which has me drawing slim, but not as bad as case 1. a more likely case is that my pair is good right now against either a pair of tens/nines or against simply ace-high.3. a set. i ruled out kings, but tens and nines are possible. against this, my flush draw and gutshot draw are both good, plus i'm drawing to a higher set. not a bad draw at all.4. a straight. not likely. QJo is not a raising hand for a tight-aggressive player.5. a pair. tens and nines are unlikely, but kings are possible. however, the only case of kings that has me in bad shape is with the A
, and i explained why i ruled out AKo (he would not consider folding to my reraise). if he has a pair of kings and my queens are no good, than my flush draw and gutshot draw are good. plus, unless he has KQ, a real possibility, i also have two outs to a set.6. a bluff. jacks are a possibility, but i can't think of any other hand which he might consider bluffing with. even with jacks, i don't think he would make a stupid push on such a scary board, even if he had the J
. he has to worry about being up against a higher heart and/or an overpair or a pair of kings.i hope you can see that against MOST of these cases, i am not in such bad shape. why? POT ODDS. i was getting about 1.8-to-1 on my money, so it's a correct call if i'm more than 35% to win the hand at showdown. am i? let's compare my hand to the reasonable hands i might be up against.A
J
- 2%. worst possible case.A
K
/ A
A
- 21%. worst possible realistic case.A
Q
- 51%.A
J
/ A
T
/ A
9
- 56%.KK - 35%.TT / 99 - 42%.KQ - 39%.KJ - 44%. (43% if it's a J
.)against any other hands, i'm pretty much a coinflip or a significant favorite.now, let's eliminate the hands we think are unlikely. the made flush is unlikely, so we're almost never a 2% dog. AKo or AA is also unlikely based on my pre-flop read, so we're probably not a 20% dog. however, even IF my read is wrong and he's tricking me with aces or AKo (both with the ace of hearts), i am not in terrible shape. against ALL other possible hands i could put him on, the pot is offering me the right price to call!only the WORST possible realistic case (which i can reasonably rule out) has me calling without the proper pot odds, but against ALL other holdings, i have the correct pot odds to call.i strongly believe that i should have made the call, because it was a cash game and i had the proper odds against almost all of the hands i could reasonably put him on.it turned out that he had a set of tens, to which i was roughly 42% to win at showdown. considering that the pot was offering me nearly 2-to-1 and i was a 2-to-3 underdog, a call would have been profitable.key concept #2: pot odds are hugely important. even if you're behind in the hand, a call can be correct if you're getting the right price. i knew that in most cases i was behind, but even then, i wasn't behind enough to justify folding when i was getting pretty good odds.what really annoys me in the present is the lack of time i took during the hand to reasonably arrive at my conclusion. in almost any big hand, i take my time to consider where i am in the hand, but for a few stupid reasons, i just figured i was beat and folded. i never considered that if my pair wasn't good, my flush+gutshot draw almost always was, and that if my draws weren't good, then my pair probably was.so conclusion: i should have called. let me know if you still disagree or if you have any questions. i hope this hand teaches everyone a few lessons, it definitely did so to me. this is a great example of a hand that looks easy on the outside but actually is very complex.enjoy,aseem
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