tricky no-limit cash game situation, wwyd?

[akishore 0]

i posted this around two or three weeks ago, and only got one reply, which agreed with the play i made. however, for the past two or three weeks since, i have been thinking about this hand repeatedly and have come to the conclusion that i made the wrong play for the wrong reasons, and it cost me.in all honesty, it's really upsetting because my mistake was so very stupid, but i can't change the past. at first sight, the hand looks very easy, but if you think about it seriously, i think this is a great hand which illustrates some key ideas of NL cash games.the game is $100NL with $1/2 blinds. the game is fairly tight/aggressive at this point, and the table is seven-handed. it is near the beginning of the night, so all stacks are roughly $100. for the most part, these opponents are tight/aggressive and have a good amount of poker knowledge. the key opponent in play (UTG) is a fairly by-the-book player but he is capable of being tricky.pre-flop:UTG raises to $7, folds over to me on the button. i wake up to Q Q , and i make it $27 to go (reraise of $20 on top). the two blinds fold, and UTG takes a LONG time thinking about whether he should call or not (key point #1: keep raises and reraises pot-sized so that they put pressure on your opponents. min raises for information often backfire against tricky opponents.), and after a few minutes, the table convinces him to call, so he calls. pot is $57.flop: K 10 9 opponent immediately goes all-in for roughly $70. pot now is roughly $127.what do you do, and WHY? i will post my flawed thinking, results, and my changed, improved thinking after i see a few responses.thanks,aseem

[Vade 0]

*sigh*Fold. Reluctantly. VERY reluctantlyAKo worries me the most, with A with a big kicker worries me, KK or AA are extremely doubtful so toss them outDespite your having two queens, KQ and AQ aren't impossible eitherSo you could be behind:Any KingA made flushA made straight (horribly unlikely)10-10 or 9-9 Going all in is the only shot for those handsNow the short list of hands you are ahead of:J-J insane-but possible on a semibluff with the J of heartsBare Ace of hearts-possible, but only likely if your opponent is looser then thisI cant' think of anything else that's logical for a tight table (assuming you trust your read)

[Emptyeye 0]

I disagree. Call.It's a tight aggressive table. The made flush is possible, but (Providing "tight/aggressive" translates to "reasonably skilled") a made flush--particularly one which has you drawing practically dead--probably checks here and hopes to induce a bluff out of you. Overpairs are possible, but unlikely given the time it took to call preflop. But this, to me, reeks of the "Classic Internet Move" of pushing all-in on a scary board and praying it didn't help your opponent. I don't know if this person plays online, but most of the time, this move usually means you have the naked ace of the suit (At best) and none of the suit at all (At worst). You have outs to the third nuts, and of course, the gutshot SF draw. As I said, a hand which has you drawing only to the SF (Or runner-runner boat/quads) probably checks and lets you try to catch up and/or fire at the pot. This, to me, means you're drawing live at the very least.I say call.

[Vade 0]

The problem is it's outs to the 3rd nutsAKo is a hand that would require a lot of thought to call a big reraise with for a good player (good players aren't nearly as in love with it)AKo is also a good hand to move in, because it forces your opponents to a test.You've gotta call 70 to win 127That's what? About 1.8-1 Not exactly great pot oddsI may be wrong though

[tskillz187 0]

I would drop those queens and curse under my breath, i feel like you can only be beating one hand JJ with the J of hearts. I think the only reasonable hands he has could be 99 1010 or AK and the killer would be AK with A of hearts. Those all seem like reasonable hands to take such a large time to think about and then call a big raise. What hand can you beat at this point? I doubt a tight aggressive and somewhat tricky player would raise utg, then call a big reraise, only to hope for a scary board, he has to put you on a premium hand, ak aa kk or qq with that reraise and all of those hands would likely call the all in with the exception of qq. I think he was hoping you had a big pair and were married to it , so you would call the all in.

[CavemanDoctor 0]

Agree with above posts.His move really reeks of PP to me. At least that's what I've noticed with the quick all-in move online. 99, TT, and AK seem the most likely, like someone said. I don't see him calling (especially if he's fairly tight) your large raise PF with anything else. And to be honest, I don't think his AK would include the A of hearts. You said he's capable of some tricks; I don't see him going all in quickly with AK (A being hearts).I'd fold.

[looshle 6]

I put him on AK and with that move he's definately got the A . He may have AQ but there's no way you can call.

[akishore 0]

come on, let me see some more responses. i'll post my thoughts, move and results, as well as what i think currently, after a few more responses. thanks to those who have replied.aseem

[Wilderness 0]

I fold.You are getting less than 2-1 on your money, and let's think about what hands he likely holds at this point. I believe he probably has AK, possibly with A ; KK, 1010, 99, Ax with A . I don't think you are getting good enough odds against any of these hands, and are in a lot of trouble with A K. Against a made flush, if its not the nut flush, you have a chance but its not good.What hands are you beating? JJ with J of hearts, AJ with one of them hearts, or a bluff ... I just don't think you have the odds to call, especially given his likely holdings.

[gobears 0]

You're getting 1.8 to 1 on your call. Your only sure out is the J of hearts; all your other outs could be dead.AK seems to be the most likely holding. AQ is possible although if he's tight, I would think that he would have folded to your raise. JJ, 10 10 are also possible. I think that you're behind and I would lay this down.

[akishore 0]

ok, i expected most of these responses.here is what my thinking was in the moment:1. there is an overcard on the board.2. the board is three-suited and i'm not drawing to the nut flush, so my flush draw is probably no good (i.e. i could be up against some A ).3. my gutshot is most likely useless, or i am only drawing to one out.4. i could be drawing to running outs if i'm against a made flush.based on these reasons, i folded in 10 seconds. it sucked, but i thought it was an easy fold.however, the more i think about this hand, the more i feel that i should have called. yes, almost all of you said fold, and calling here seems stupid, but let me explain.he would not have AA or KK. he would not have taken so long to think pre-flop (it was past the point of acting IMO) and i also knew he doesn't slowplay big pairs pre-flop (i.e. he would not smooth-call my reraise). i reasonably concluded that i was NOT up against an overpair (aces) or a set of kings.i also mistakenly assumed that i might be up against an A . the only hands he would have with this card would be AKo or AQo/AJo/ATo/A9o. the only possible suited ace would be AJs. he wouldn't call my reraise with any other suited ace, and he wouldn't hesitate so much with AKo (granted, you all wouldn't know this, but i know that he thinks of AKo as a premium hand rather than a drawing hand, and he wouldn't fold to a reraise). based on this, IF he has the A , he either has a flush (AJs) or is drawing ONLY to the flush (AKo is not a possibility, but AQo/AJo/ATo are possible). i would be drawing nearly dead to AJs, but i would be ahead of AQo/AJo/ATo.finally, consider what hands i could possibly be up against:1. made flush. only realistically possible with A J . against this, i am drawing very slim. however, this is extremely unlikely. his move on the flop just doesn't make any sense, and he would not instantly push with the nuts here, overbetting the pot.2. nut flush draw with A . as i explained above, the worst case that i ruled out would be AKo (pair of kings and nut flush draw) which has me drawing slim, but not as bad as case 1. a more likely case is that my pair is good right now against either a pair of tens/nines or against simply ace-high.3. a set. i ruled out kings, but tens and nines are possible. against this, my flush draw and gutshot draw are both good, plus i'm drawing to a higher set. not a bad draw at all.4. a straight. not likely. QJo is not a raising hand for a tight-aggressive player.5. a pair. tens and nines are unlikely, but kings are possible. however, the only case of kings that has me in bad shape is with the A , and i explained why i ruled out AKo (he would not consider folding to my reraise). if he has a pair of kings and my queens are no good, than my flush draw and gutshot draw are good. plus, unless he has KQ, a real possibility, i also have two outs to a set.6. a bluff. jacks are a possibility, but i can't think of any other hand which he might consider bluffing with. even with jacks, i don't think he would make a stupid push on such a scary board, even if he had the J . he has to worry about being up against a higher heart and/or an overpair or a pair of kings.i hope you can see that against MOST of these cases, i am not in such bad shape. why? POT ODDS. i was getting about 1.8-to-1 on my money, so it's a correct call if i'm more than 35% to win the hand at showdown. am i? let's compare my hand to the reasonable hands i might be up against.A J - 2%. worst possible case.A K / A A - 21%. worst possible realistic case.A Q - 51%.A J / A T / A 9 - 56%.KK - 35%.TT / 99 - 42%.KQ - 39%.KJ - 44%. (43% if it's a J .)against any other hands, i'm pretty much a coinflip or a significant favorite.now, let's eliminate the hands we think are unlikely. the made flush is unlikely, so we're almost never a 2% dog. AKo or AA is also unlikely based on my pre-flop read, so we're probably not a 20% dog. however, even IF my read is wrong and he's tricking me with aces or AKo (both with the ace of hearts), i am not in terrible shape. against ALL other possible hands i could put him on, the pot is offering me the right price to call!only the WORST possible realistic case (which i can reasonably rule out) has me calling without the proper pot odds, but against ALL other holdings, i have the correct pot odds to call.i strongly believe that i should have made the call, because it was a cash game and i had the proper odds against almost all of the hands i could reasonably put him on.it turned out that he had a set of tens, to which i was roughly 42% to win at showdown. considering that the pot was offering me nearly 2-to-1 and i was a 2-to-3 underdog, a call would have been profitable.key concept #2: pot odds are hugely important. even if you're behind in the hand, a call can be correct if you're getting the right price. i knew that in most cases i was behind, but even then, i wasn't behind enough to justify folding when i was getting pretty good odds.what really annoys me in the present is the lack of time i took during the hand to reasonably arrive at my conclusion. in almost any big hand, i take my time to consider where i am in the hand, but for a few stupid reasons, i just figured i was beat and folded. i never considered that if my pair wasn't good, my flush+gutshot draw almost always was, and that if my draws weren't good, then my pair probably was.so conclusion: i should have called. let me know if you still disagree or if you have any questions. i hope this hand teaches everyone a few lessons, it definitely did so to me. this is a great example of a hand that looks easy on the outside but actually is very complex.enjoy,aseem

[Swift_Psycho 1]

I probably fold, all the while muttering angrily. Just my take.

[Emptyeye 0]

Well, I was right, though your thinking went several levels beyond mine. :lol:Amusing I didn't think of pot odds, given I watch enough WPT and Sexton is always going on about "Well, he's got the right price to call; even though he's behind, he's getting 2-to-1 on his money blah blah blah...".Something else to consider: It's a cash game. You can (presumably) rebuy. I don't know if you play with these people regularly, but calling here also sends a message, perhaps "Don't try and bluff me off of a scary board", or perhaps "I get married to my pocket pairs" (Depending on how your opponents choose to interpret it), but your opponents will remember it either way. If it turns out you lose (Or even if you win), consider the call an investment, and use the information you've projected to your advantage later on.

[rollito 0]

i still think you should fold because you made a pretty big bet preflop and he could have been ponedering a call with ako.....i just think that in too many cases you are dominated and in really bad shape....as you said it was fairly early in the night so how much info did you really have on this guy(had you played with him before?).....anyways i think its a spot where a fold is better than a call.....can you really be certain he didnt have ak with the ah that early in the night?

[justblaze 0]

lol aseem i was about to post "im putting him on a set of 10s trying to knock off a flush draw" before i decided to read your results post.

[Guest Anonymous]

THAT HAS TO BE THE EASIEST FOLD EVER, YOU DONT EVEN HAVE A ACE OF HEARTS, NOT TO MENTION YOU NEED ANOTHER HEART FOR A FLUSH, NOT TO MENTION THERE IS A OVER PAIR ON THE BOARD THE THE UTG IS A SOLID PLAYER....WHY THE HELL DID YOU EVEN POST THIS HAND FOLD IT AND GET ONTO THE NEXT HAND, IF YOUR EVEN THINKING OF CALLING HERE YOU SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO PLAY POKER.

[obs 0]

The pot is laying you almost 2-1. Like you said, he most likely does not have AA or KK. AK, AQ, QQ, JJ, or TT are the only hands I would realistically put him on. AK or a set the most likely. Call this.

[jonnyhockey 0]

Good post.Based on your reads of this guy, a call does seem like the right move. Just curious why you didn't take your time at the table though? Do you usually rush into these things? I understand you can't take 2-3 weeks to decide when seated, but I think if there's anything you should be a little upset with yourself about, it should be the amount of time you took in folding.

[justblaze 0]

THAT HAS TO BE THE EASIEST FOLD EVER, YOU DONT EVEN HAVE A ACE OF HEARTS, NOT TO MENTION YOU NEED ANOTHER HEART FOR A FLUSH, NOT TO MENTION THERE IS A OVER PAIR ON THE BOARD THE THE UTG IS A SOLID PLAYER....WHY THE HELL DID YOU EVEN POST THIS HAND FOLD IT AND GET ONTO THE NEXT HAND, IF YOUR EVEN THINKING OF CALLING HERE YOU SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO PLAY POKER.

HAHAHA given the range of hands villain could be on and the odds being offered by the pot it seems like the most +EV decision is in fact a call. but what do i know, im just going by math. im sure you have a much better system for evaluating numbers-based games decisions?

[tskillz187 0]

If you were reasonably sure that he did not have AK I think that a call is correct everytime. That is the only hand that is crippling ou given the fact that you ruled out AA and KK. Your post brings a problem I have with many online places, sometimes you just dont get enough time to think before you are out of time. In a live game, I would just sit there and get in the tank for a good two minutes all the while trying to pick up a read on him. Just another reason I enjoy B&M more than online. Good post, next time make that call!

[Wilderness 0]

THAT HAS TO BE THE EASIEST FOLD EVER, YOU DONT EVEN HAVE A ACE OF HEARTS, NOT TO MENTION YOU NEED ANOTHER HEART FOR A FLUSH, NOT TO MENTION THERE IS A OVER PAIR ON THE BOARD THE THE UTG IS A SOLID PLAYER....WHY THE HELL DID YOU EVEN POST THIS HAND FOLD IT AND GET ONTO THE NEXT HAND, IF YOUR EVEN THINKING OF CALLING HERE YOU SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO PLAY POKER.

Hush child, this is a grown-up conversation.And in case your mommy let's you play with the computer again, the CAPS lock key is the 3rd one up from the bottom on the left hand side of the keyboard.But its probably naptime now so you won't be responding to this post for a while anyway.

[Wilderness 0]

ok, i expected most of these responses ... yada yada yada ...

Your last post was very informative and well thought out. I actually agree with a lot of your reasoning and therefore it does seem that a call makes sense. My feelings before were that you were getting less than 2-1 on your money and you were probably behind or in trouble. But I guess I should have really tried to figure out the percentages for having a gutshot and a likely good flush draw, because I didn't realize it would be so high against a set or the nut flush draw. But I think you've shown that it is a +EV play to make this call, and if you lose it then you just reload and go from there.I'm not so sure that AKo is as unlikely as you seem to think, but you did say you had a read on him, so if so then obviously you should stick with that. He could very well have hesistated with AKo after your re-raise b/c he fears being against AA or KK. But, if that was the case, I really don't see him going all-in on the flop. Anyway, I enjoyed your post and after reading it, your reasoning and logic seems sound.

[akishore 0]

thanks for all the replies everyone.just to address a few points brought up...1. it was a live game, not online. i had played with UTG a few times, and knew his style of play fairly well. i am confident that he would not have hesitated so much and finally smooth-called with AKo pre-flop, nor would he have pushed all-in with the made flush.2. one point that can be made for folding is that my edge is marginal (35% pot odds needed, but only around 40% do i win at showdown against most of the hands i can put him on). NL is all about huge edges, so i might have folded that anyway and just waited for a bigger edge.3. emptyeye brought up a counterexample to point #2... it's a cash game, and especially since it's live, calling there sends a message that you can't be bluffed easily and you're not afraid to put in your chips. plus, you can also use the image of marrying a pair even with an overcard to your advantage.4. good post BigSkiRace. 5. to jonnyhockey, you're completely right, i have no idea why i rushed my decision. in live play, in big hands, i always take time to think about my situation. the fact that i folded so quickly for some not-thought-out reasons really annoys me to this day. i fell into the auto-pilot trap... overcard on the board, i don't have the A , easy fold. i really should have taken the time to think, and one reason i didn't might be that this was my first time playing at these stakes.again, thanks for all the replies. i think i'll remember this hand for a long time... it really shows the benefits of making a logical read to change a seemingly easy fold into something more complex.thanks,aseem

[jack24bauer24 0]

Personally I think this is a pretty easy fold. If this guy is a pretty tight solid player, what did he call a raise of 20 dollars with preflop? Kings is unlikely, but I suppose possible. Aces is out of the question, but AK is likely. A set is very likely. I don't see what he's calling you with preflop that at this moment he doesn't have you beat. What money have you lost at this point? 27 dollars...its crappy to lose 27 dollars, but its much better than losing another 70 when you are way behind on the flop.I put my money in when I know i'm ahead or are quite quite likely I'm ahead, I don't like calling all in and basicaly just hoping I'm ahead. You can easily win back the 27 in a few hands, why make yourself be down 100 right off the bad when you don't even have top pair on the board?Could you have the best hand? Sure you could, but the good and great players all fold the best hand sometimes and wait till the KNOW they have the best hand, something you couldn't possibly know in this hand.In regards to this hand, I probably don't raise to 27 preflop anyhow...I likely smooth call and see what happens on the flop...you smooth call preflop and if you get a jack high flop there's no way he's putting you on queens. Not that your raise is bad or wrong, QQ is the 3rd best hand, I just like to either be the initial raiser or call and see a flop and go from there.

[ChuckSty 0]

akishore i had a very very similar hand recently in which i was playing at the loosest table i have ever been at in my life. ONline pacific poker 1/2 NL and i had made my standard pf raise 12 dollars because anything else would have at least 5 callers most hands. regardless i was on the button and i think 5 people had limped in. i had pocket 77 and decided i was going to go ahead and raise (this move may have been questionable but at this table if i wanted to play my sevens i wanted to reduce the number of people and considering noone at this insane table had raised i though i had a good chance if i could knock most of them out)the flop came down j 7 4 all of clubs. action checks to me: pot size is approximately 50 bucks i think at this point: there were 4 still left in. i made a pot size bet becasue i didn't want anyone drawing out. (maybe should have over bet) regardless bb immediately calls for all of his remaining chips.next guy folds; last guy calls.next card is a blank.other guy goes all in for remaining 400 dollars.i was the only other big stack at the table and after my initial raise and bet i think i had 365 dollars. i got in my head and started thinking about how crazy the table was and how people were playing any two suited cards and how he had probably flopped a flush with k 5 or something ridiculousy crappy like that and i was surely beat. regardless i came to the moronic decision that i was beat even though i think i was getting pretty great odds to find out.i folded the winning hand. he had a set of 4's.