Posted 27 October 2006 - 10:55 AM
to me, this is a definite call at 3:1. as passively as villian played this, it would be very unusual to see AA, QQ, TT, 99, or 33 here. this is a draw-heavy board - surely a set or overpair would have put in a raise somewhere to protect his hand?
AQ also seems very unlikely to me. Who limps with AQ oop, just calls a preflop raise, and then calls a pot-sized flop bet after whiffing? I think we can exclude that too. I also dont think we have to worry too much about A9, A3, Q9, or Q3, especially with the 9s and 3s on the board (i.e. he can't hold As9s). He's not flat-calling that flop bet with middle pair and no draw too often.
So that leaves the hands we have to worry about as A10, Q10, KJ, or J8. Unfortunately these are very possible holdings based on his action. I dont think it's A10 or Q10 though. Remember, MP1 just called the flop bet with two players still to act behind him, on a draw-heavy board. This is not the way one naturally plays TPTK, as it's pricing in all the possible draws behind him.
This makes me think he had a drawing hand of his own, either KJ, J8, 87, or the flush draw. of these, certainly KJ is the least likely. you're showing a lot of strength by leading this flop OOP in a five-way pot when you weren't the preflop raiser. you're never going to be bluffing here, so he has to give you some respect and can't count overcards as good outs. is he just calling here with nothing but a gutshot? not as likely as an oesd or a flush draw.
if he made a straight on the turn, wouldnt you expect him to raise? especially with the J8, there's a flush draw and higher straight draws out there (if you held, say JJ). he might play it this passively, but more likely not.
all this makes me think his most likely hand on the river is a busted draw of some kind, probably a missed flush draw. he may even have something like As5s, have hit top pair, and is trying to squeeze out a value bet if you're holding just a 10. or his draw could have missed entirely, he senses a little weakness in your check and is trying to cheaply steal this pot off you. i'm pretty certain you're good here often enough to call getting 3:1. and if you are beat, you'll know how how passive he is, and you can exploit that in the future.
also, anyone go for a big flop check-raise here? i feel like this defends our hand a little better than just leading out. probably depends on how likely someone is to bet behind us.
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