18 replies to this topic

[jimhoff14]

How about this one. I hated this position.

Bodog 2-4 NL, Full ring, 9 players

Hero has 900, villian covers.

Villian is def a good player from what I've seen so far. My table image is somewhere between tag and lag. I know he views me as a good player.

Folds to hero in mp3 who raises to 15, folds to villian in sb who makes it 45, hero reraises it to 145, and villian pushes allin for over 900???????

Deepstacked this must be an easy fold right???

[UncleKraut]

Some people argue you shoudl never fold KK pre flop in a cashgame. The chances of the other guy having AA are just too slim.

Personally, I agree with the fold here.

The thing that makes it tricky is that you wrote he knows you are a good player. So he could "know" that you would fold KK in this situation. This would lead him to make this play with QQ-AA. Maybe AK.

But if you don't put him on tilt, you re-raised him enough to show that you're most likely not going anywhere.

He still pushed.

Therefore, I think you have enough information for the fold here.

[Royal_Tour]

How about this one. I hated this position.

Bodog 2-4 NL, Full ring, 9 players

Hero has 900, villian covers.

Villian is def a good player from what I've seen so far. My table image is somewhere between tag and lag. I know he views me as a good player.

Folds to hero in mp3 who raises to 15, folds to villian in sb who makes it 45, hero reraises it to 145, and villian pushes allin for over 900???????

Deepstacked this must be an easy fold right???

you are @ 225BB's you have now invested 36.25 BB's. leaving you with 188.75BB's

with Royal's guide to folding KK preflop, you need +150BB's. you also need the required info., Villain open raised, and then re-raised all in for his whole stack of over +150BB

This is a Fold in Royal's mind.

[MasterLJ]

This would be interesting to have the FCP community get involved in some research.

One person alone probably gets re-raised for their entire stack while holding KK once in a brazillian hands, but if we pooled the experiences of everyone willing to participate, perhaps we could extrapolate a percentage breakdown of our opponent's holdings (assuming most people call). Of course the variables here assuming cash games only, are stack sizes of the villain and the hero. I suppose the more interesting part would be the percentage holdings of the villain in a deepstacked situation.

Any volunteers?

[Acid_Knight]

you are @ 225BB's you have now invested 36.25 BB's. leaving you with 188.75BB's

with Royal's guide to folding KK preflop, you need +150BB's. you also need the required info., Villain open raised, and then re-raised all in for his whole stack of over +150BB

This is a Fold in Royal's mind.

Royal - It's good that you've elevated yourself to such a high status that you refer to yourself in the 3rd person. Damnit, I just realized I'm jealous.

I agree that it's a fold. You raise, Player B says "i can beat that" and reraises. You says, "my hand is better than yours" and put in the 3rd raise.

Player B goes, "nothing beats AA preflop, right?" and pushes. You look down at your hand and go "I really would've thought this was winning" as you slide it face down into the muck...

[DrZebra]

How about this one. I hated this position.

Bodog 2-4 NL, Full ring, 9 players

Hero has 900, villian covers.

Villian is def a good player from what I've seen so far. My table image is somewhere between tag and lag. I know he views me as a good player.

Folds to hero in mp3 who raises to 15, folds to villian in sb who makes it 45, hero reraises it to 145, and villian pushes allin for over 900???????

Deepstacked this must be an easy fold right???

If he's got AA any less than 80% of the time it is a horrible fold.
Random 2/4 full ring online: 50% AA.
Call.

[jimhoff14]

If he's got AA any less than 80% of the time it is a horrible fold.
Random 2/4 full ring online: 50% AA.
Call.

I really don't see how this could be AA less than 80% of the time. He is definately representing this, and I don't think a good 2-4 player that deepstacked would push allin with qq, jj, ak, etc. i think this has to be kk or aa, and i don't think its kk considering i have kk.

[Peak01]

I think you really should fold in this situation but of course my finger would spazz here and click the call button leaving me staring at the screen wondering where it all went wrong.

[DrZebra]

I really don't see how this could be AA less than 80% of the time. He is definately representing this, and I don't think a good 2-4 player that deepstacked would push allin with qq, jj, ak, etc. i think this has to be kk or aa, and i don't think its kk considering i have kk.

Just because YOU don't push people off hands preflop doesn't mean HE doesn't. (Imagine how much better this play is if he thinks you can get off KK getting 1.5:1.)
Like I said a solid 2/4 player, full ring, online, will have AA roughly 50% of the time here.

[Acid_Knight]

Just because YOU don't push people off hands preflop doesn't mean HE doesn't. (Imagine how much better this play is if he thinks you can get off KK getting 1.5:1.)
Like I said a solid 2/4 player, full ring, online, will have AA roughly 50% of the time here.

Where do you come up with 50%? His play definitely looks like a HUGE hand and you put in the 3rd raise out of position preflop and he still pushes. I think this is AA way more than 50%, probably approaching 75-80% or even more.

Not many players are willing to make such a large move in the face of so much strength against an opponent who likely holds QQ+, AK becuase they don't know if they'll lay it down.

I don't know where you get 50% but I disagree with that number. He has AA a much higher percentage here, given the action that has taken place.

[delasoul]

I would close my eyes and accidently push the call button. Then I would pray to the poker gods to give me a dramatic win by hitting my set on the river.

If I lose I would lay on the floor in the fetal position

[DrZebra]

Where do you come up with 50%? His play definitely looks like a HUGE hand and you put in the 3rd raise out of position preflop and he still pushes. I think this is AA way more than 50%, probably approaching 75-80% or even more.

Not many players are willing to make such a large move in the face of so much strength against an opponent who likely holds QQ+, AK becuase they don't know if they'll lay it down.

I don't know where you get 50% but I disagree with that number. He has AA a much higher percentage here, given the action that has taken place.

(did the math)
roughly 70% is even money.
how do you come up with 75-80%?

50% having AA is huge, and it's still +EV.
I'm giving him credit for having AA a 'huge' amount of the time (50%) it has to actually be over 70% to fold (guy is rock of gibraltar). I don't see how we can have the information necessary to fold without watching this guy for a very long time.

[Acid_Knight]

Villian is def a good player from what I've seen so far.

He says he's a good player. A good player is unlikely to play a hand like QQ or AK this fast, IMO.

[Acid_Knight]

(did the math)
roughly 70% is even money.
how do you come up with 75-80%?
50% having AA is huge, and it's still +EV.
I'm giving him credit for having AA a 'huge' amount of the time (50%) it has to actually be over 70% to fold (guy is rock of gibraltar). I don't see how we can have the information necessary to fold without watching this guy for a very long time.

We are getting odds of 1045-755 to call. We'll round that up to 1.4 to 1 to call.

If we call and he has AA 50% of the time and another hand (aggregate that we're 75%-25% over his hand, QQ or AK) the other 50% of the time.

It'll look like we lose an avg of $720 when we call and he has AA. And the other 50% of the time when we call and he has any other hand, we are going to win an avg of $675

That says that IF he has AA only half the time, our break even pot odds are about 1.1 to 1. If he has AA 60% of the time, then we would need 1.6 to 1 to call and now we're losing money. I think that on average, he's gonna have AA more than 60% of the time.

You're saying that 50% of the time, he's going to put in the 4th raise out of position with a hand like QQ or AK? Or something worse?

My 75-80% was just an intuitive guess. You said that Random full ring 2/4 game, AA: 50% which seemed to come out of nowhere. How do you come up with that number. The action says he has AA.

[DrZebra]

... in the 4th raise out of position ...

this only applies post-flop.

My 75-80% was just an intuitive guess....
...50% which seemed to come out of nowhere. How do you come up with that number.

I'm making the point that 50% is NOT insignificant. It is 110x the likelihood that he randomly has AA. It is an intuitive guess.
I've seen plenty of 2/4 donks in my day. I'm giving him credit of 100x likelihood of having AA and still calling!

[Royal_Tour]

If he's got AA any less than 80% of the time it is a horrible fold.
Random 2/4 full ring online: 50% AA.
Call.

Just because YOU don't push people off hands preflop doesn't mean HE doesn't. (Imagine how much better this play is if he thinks you can get off KK getting 1.5:1.)
Like I said a solid 2/4 player, full ring, online, will have AA roughly 50% of the time here.

(did the math)
roughly 70% is even money.
how do you come up with 75-80%?

50% having AA is huge, and it's still +EV.
I'm giving him credit for having AA a 'huge' amount of the time (50%) it has to actually be over 70% to fold (guy is rock of gibraltar). I don't see how we can have the information necessary to fold without watching this guy for a very long time.

this only applies post-flop.
I'm making the point that 50% is NOT insignificant. It is 110x the likelihood that he randomly has AA. It is an intuitive guess.
I've seen plenty of 2/4 donks in my day. I'm giving him credit of 100x likelihood of having AA and still calling!

Your idea of using a percentage to claim calling al your chips vs a <80% chance at AA is foolish.
You talk about donks at 2/4NL
well I'll tel you just as many 2/4 NL players who still think AA never wins, and they would rather win a 140 dollar pot by pushing, than trying to see the flop.

wheres your percentage on those guys?

[simo_8ball]

Yeah, I think this is a good spot to fold KK. This is very unlikely to be QQ or AK.

[jimhoff14]

To close out this post, I infact let my time run all the way down to the last second and then had a hand spasm and clicked call. I really wanted to fold this and for some reason, my hand wouldn't let me. Obviously as most of you noted, he had AA and i lost the hand. I was sitting there starring at the screen and wondering why I am such an idiot and gave away all of my hard work at that table. Hopefully next time, this will be an easier fold.

[DrawingDeadInDM]

you are @ 225BB's you have now invested 36.25 BB's. leaving you with 188.75BB's

with Royal's guide to folding KK preflop, you need +150BB's. you also need the required info., Villain open raised, and then re-raised all in for his whole stack of over +150BB

This is a Fold in Royal's mind.

This has to be a joke, right? You're not serious..are you?



"He knows I'm a good player".. what does that mean?

Does that mean he thinks you'd respect his push putting him only on aces? If that's the case, then call. I do this same thing with much less than AA and I consider myself a good player. I've made this same play with 85s, A4s, AA, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AQs, whatever..it's read dependent..

When you say, "He knows I'm a good player", what jumps into my mind is, "He wants me to think that he respects me the same way I respect him and the only way he's gonna push on me preflop is with AA.."

Good luck, but, you're silly to fold this.