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Quiz Question #22


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Poll: What Would You do? (251 member(s) have cast votes)

Call or Fold?

  1. Call (70 votes [27.89%])

    Percentage of vote: 27.89%

  2. Fold (181 votes [72.11%])

    Percentage of vote: 72.11%

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#41 Acid_Knight

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Posted 19 October 2006 - 09:45 AM

View Postshpaget, on Thursday, October 19th, 2006, 10:34 AM, said:

The reason you "trap" is because you think you're ahead...and until you are given reason to change your belief you are ahead you need to follow through when someone falls into the trap...and, IMO, a large bet, on its own, completely out of context of the other streets, does not indicate strength.
We know nothing about this player. You are guessing completely as to what his bet means. If you're going to call, then you are making a guess for your tournament life.Does his bet not give you pause and think, "hmm, maybe I wasn't winning this hand after all."It's also bad to make bluffs that don't make sense. People get curious as to what you're doing, and you get called, which is bad when you're bluffing. Nothing about this hand makes sense, which leads me to believe even more that he is not bluffing because it is unlikely that anyone would believe him.The only hand that you're willing to put him on is a bluff of some sort, but what could that be? He didn't have proper pot odds to draw to anything on the turn, depending on what he put us on. Does he consider pot odds? We don't know.

#42 shpaget

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Posted 19 October 2006 - 09:57 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Thursday, October 19th, 2006, 9:45 AM, said:

We know nothing about this player. You are guessing completely as to what his bet means. If you're going to call, then you are making a guess for your tournament life.Does his bet not give you pause and think, "hmm, maybe I wasn't winning this hand after all."The only hand that you're willing to put him on is a bluff of some sort, but what could that be? He didn't have proper pot odds to draw to anything on the turn, depending on what he put us on. Does he consider pot odds? We don't know.
That's poker...you "guess" based on experience...you don't know anything about him so, until proven otherwise, you have to assume he's an average/typical player.Could he be ignorant of pot odds? Maybe.Could he be calculating implied odds? Maybe.Could he just be a flush chaser? Maybe.Could he be calling to represent a flush draw, even if he isn't on it, intending to bet it? Maybe.If he thinks you're weak, he could be looking to:a. hit his drawb. see the board hit a four-straight to bluff at itc. see the 3rd spade to bluff at itd. calling to bluff the river no matter what comesSometimes you gotta trust your reads and go with your gut...and, simply, you never learn if you never screw up.I simply go back to typical play...and of all the hands that beat you on the turn, a typical player doesn't check/call with those hands.And if he's being tricky to go with your trickiness, so be it.I go back to it being really important in determining what he thinks you have.If he thinks we're weak - and he has every reason to think that - then HIS range of hands increases drastically, including a whole lot of bluffing material.

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It's also bad to make bluffs that don't make sense. People get curious as to what you're doing, and you get called, which is bad when you're bluffing. Nothing about this hand makes sense, which leads me to believe even more that he is not bluffing because it is unlikely that anyone would believe him.
People do it all the time...they make a bet that doesn't fit with the rest of the hand....sometimes they get caught, usually they don't. Also, typically, a person is more likely to get away with their first bluff...people don't start looking them up until the 2nd or 3rd allin.I said it before and I'll say it again..I generally advocate caution, or waiting for him to bluff again..I generally advocate a bad fold being better than a bad call...and I generally advocate the ability to fold tptk...in fact, I probably fold it TOO often....my gut, here, says we're ahead, and I have to trust it.
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#43 EmOEmU

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Posted 19 October 2006 - 11:59 AM

I would 100% call. You sold the idea you didnt have much and it doesnt make sense to convince your opponent you are weak when you are strong then fold to a bet from him.On the turn, there are a lot of draws. If anyone had 2-pair or better it would be very unusual to check and call because any dimond, 5,6,10,J is an action killer.Its more likely he missed some sort of draw and decided to bluff on the river because you showed weakness.

#44 Acid_Knight

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Posted 19 October 2006 - 12:10 PM

View PostEmOEmU, on Thursday, October 19th, 2006, 12:59 PM, said:

I would 100% call. You sold the idea you didnt have much and it doesnt make sense to convince your opponent you are weak when you are strong then fold to a bet from him.
You can sell whatever you want about your hand. You've got a real hand, but it doesn't look that way. He's selling that he's weak too, and you're buying it.Making this point is retarded unless we know that we're good in the hand. Just becuase we decided to look weak doesn't mean anything about HIS hand, only how he views ours.

#45 shpaget

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Posted 19 October 2006 - 12:35 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Thursday, October 19th, 2006, 12:10 PM, said:

Making this point is retarded unless we know that we're good in the hand. Just becuase we decided to look weak doesn't mean anything about HIS hand, only how he views ours.
And how he views our hand will determine how he bets the river, based on his hand...if he views us as weak, he's not gonna push with the nuts, he's gonna make a more reasonable bet, but he will bluff if he's got air...if he views us as strong, he's not gonna bluff, but he will push the nuts.
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#46 pragtyro

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Posted 19 October 2006 - 02:14 PM

View PostDanielNegreanu, on Tuesday, October 17th, 2006, 10:56 PM, said:

The question is simple, without knowing ANYTHING about the player, what would you do? It is level five of a $10,000 buy in tournament.
At the very least, we know that 6-10 hours into the tournament he only has 35-75% of his starting chips (depending on WHAT 10k tournament of course) and considering the sloppiness of the question, and the non-sloppiness of previous questions, I think the answer is supposed to be either "we can't possibly know NOTHING" or "we need more information to answer the question"I'm still wondering what was goofy about the 1k bet into the 1.9k pot on the turn though...

#47 dkelloway

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Posted 19 October 2006 - 06:03 PM

I call. You can't play the hand like that if you're going to fold to a weird bet at the end. Look at it from his perspective, you decide to raise pf then check behind when the ace comes. To him, you've probably have some sort of draw or a high pair like QQ. You show weakness again by making a goofy bet that he calls. He could be easily floating you or he could have a draw. the river card was a blank, that card prob didn't help him, and if he did check the straight on the turn (unlikely) why would he bet so much? Typically a set raises somewhere here.I call the river bet, to him, you have a mediocre holding and he can force you off of it.

#48 shpaget

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Posted 20 October 2006 - 05:29 AM

View Postpragtyro, on Thursday, October 19th, 2006, 2:14 PM, said:

At the very least, we know that 6-10 hours into the tournament he only has 35-75% of his starting chips (depending on WHAT 10k tournament of course) and considering the sloppiness of the question, and the non-sloppiness of previous questions, I think the answer is supposed to be either "we can't possibly know NOTHING" or "we need more information to answer the question"I'm still wondering what was goofy about the 1k bet into the 1.9k pot on the turn though...
There are several reasons you can know "nothing" about your opponent:1. you've only been at the table for a few hands...or this is your first hand here2. he's only been at the table for a few hands/few minutes3. you simply haven't been paying attentionThe bet is goofy because it's a half-pot bet that doesn't make much sense in relation to a pf raise and a flop check (in position)...along with two spades and three consecutive cards on the board the last thing it will do is scare off any draws.It looks exactly like someone who is weak trying to steal the pot, possibly on a semi-bluff. It's not a bet you make if you think you're ahead and want to protect from draws.
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#49 Acid_Knight

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Posted 20 October 2006 - 06:13 AM

View Postdkelloway, on Thursday, October 19th, 2006, 7:03 PM, said:

I call. You can't play the hand like that if you're going to fold to a weird bet at the end.
Why? I just want you to explain why just because we played the hand weirdly, we HAVE TO call his bet on the end?I'd want more information other than "well, we played this hand goofy and he's supposed to try and take it away, so I'm not going to let him."

#50 MrNiceGuy

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Posted 20 October 2006 - 09:29 AM

These quizzes are getting interesting...Assuming he plays reasonably well, a set makes no sense, and the only 2-pair that makes any sense is A3 (and I doubt A3 would push on this river; he'd probably either check/call or make a smaller bet). Since he's going to have a hard time putting us on a hand (we opened in late position and checked behind on the flop; we could have almost anything), he can't just call on that scary board on the turn when there's so many ways we could be semibluffing. 65 also would probably do more than check/call the turn.So in my view, the only hand we need to be afraid of is JT, which a reasonable opponent could play in this manner, particularly if he views our flop check as a sign of strength. (By not raising the turn, he can save money if the board pairs on the river, and he can make a smaller value bet if a flush or straight card comes, and he can push on a blank river to make it look like a bluff).However, without knowing our opponent, he could have so many busted draws here. He could be reading our mid-sized turn bet as a sign of weakness.Since the only hands I can see beating us are JT and (much less likely) A3, I think we need to call here. There are way too many worse hands that could have played the flop and turn as he did for us to assume the worst.
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#51 TraptSteve

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Posted 20 October 2006 - 06:13 PM

I just repeat "I think i got you, yeah... I think I've got ya" in a soft tone every 20 seconds - glancing up from the board into his eyes each time. I gauge his reaction from this and then make a now informed decision.Actually, I fold based on... He's putting his tournament life on the line on the river, with no cards to come. With still plenty of time and chips to operate. Doesn't make sense. Remember the cardinal rule: Always leave yourself outs.He's representing a huge hand (straight), which he turned and decided to slowplay. Assuming you made it about 3x the BB, it a hand like J-10 isn't bad against what could be interpreted as a typical blind steal.He gets his straight draw on the flop and checks. I believe he was looking to check/raise on the flop to test you.That opportunity to find out if you stealing or had a hand was missed but another one opened up when he made his straight due to your gratuitous free card. Instead of putting you to the test on the turn, he waited for the river to really lay it on you with an open push.THE ONLY hand that you can beat here is a busted straight draw & pair combo such as 10-7s... Basically you failed to get any info on the flop, so you really can't call the river. Muck it.


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#52 shpaget

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Posted 20 October 2006 - 07:07 PM

View PostTraptSteve, on Friday, October 20th, 2006, 6:13 PM, said:

THE ONLY hand that you can beat here is a busted straight draw & pair combo such as 10-7s...
The ONLY plausible hand he has here is JT (which he ridiculously let you have a free crack at a flush, or completing a queen high straight, etc, etc)....nor did he try to obtain any value at all after you bet. Do you think he called pf with 56 or T6?There are 16 ways for him to have JT.As far as the "only" hand beating you being a busted draw?66 - 6 waysTT - 6 waysT9 - 12 waysJ9 - 12 waysKT - 12 waysQT - 16 waysAT - 12 waysyou get the drift?And I haven't even started on all the possible two spade card combinations he could plausibly have.

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Doesn't make sense. Remember the cardinal rule: Always leave yourself outs.
Are you suggesting that no one ever made a stone cold bluff on the river where they couldn't even beat the board? This IS where you stone cold bluff because you don't need outs, and you're not worried about your opponent calculating his outs, and perhaps calling on a draw he doesn't actually need.
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#53 TraptSteve

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Posted 21 October 2006 - 02:10 AM

View Postshpaget, on Friday, October 20th, 2006, 7:07 PM, said:

The ONLY plausible hand he has here is JT (which he ridiculously let you have a free crack at a flush, or completing a queen high straight, etc, etc)....nor did he try to obtain any value at all after you bet. Do you think he called pf with 56 or T6?There are 16 ways for him to have JT.As far as the "only" hand beating you being a busted draw?66 - 6 waysTT - 6 ways....you get the drift?Are you suggesting that no one ever made a stone cold bluff on the river where they couldn't even beat the board? This IS where you stone cold bluff because you don't need outs, and you're not worried about your opponent calculating his outs, and perhaps calling on a draw he doesn't actually need.
The fact is we get NO info whatsoever on the flop as to the strength of our villain's hand. We essentially make a huge mistake by not betting the flop and it has comeback to burn us.Remember, we raised from a steal position... if the opponent thinks we're full of it enough to bluff on the river, why wouldn't he try to check raise us on the turn with his semi-draw???We definately don't have the right odds to make this call on the river. Tip your cap to him if he was just making a gutsy play.You still have chips - wait for a better spot. Muck it


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#54 David_Nicoson

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Posted 21 October 2006 - 08:22 AM

This is a slightly different question for each person. If the "you" in the question is David Nicoson, then the villain probably also doesn't know anything about me. If you have a reputation, the villain may take that into account.It's a question of reads, really. We can't beat the hand he's representing. Do we believe him? On what level is a random player most likely to think?
  • I have a big hand. I'm going to bet a lot of money.
  • I think the PFR raiser is weak. I'm going to bet a lot of money and he will fold.
  • The PFR is showing a lot of weakness. I can get paid on my big hand by representing a bluff with a missed flush draw.
We're in the dark a bit here, since none of our bets do much to define his hand. We're really back on level 1 at this point ourselves. Hey, this hand is pretty good and we're getting some odds (~1.75:1). I hate to go broke calling with one pair, but I think this is a spot for it. If we fold, we're looking at ending day 1 down a bit (assuming WSOP or similar). It's not desperation time, but there's a little urgency.
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#55 EmOEmU

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Posted 21 October 2006 - 12:05 PM

I would still argue, like I said before. Why would somebody check twice and only call with a hand like 3 of a kind or two pairs. There are so many draws that can beat him and if not they are at least cards that will kill action. There are 16 cards that put a 1 card straight on board and an additional 7 cards that put a potential flush on board. Daniel is known as a player who gambles and plays a lot of hands so he rates to often have some sort of pair and / or a draw. Why would this player give a free card?He could have 10-J. But since we checked the flop, then only bet a small amount on the turn - why would he go all in? Is he really thinking "right he knows that i know he is weak so ill bet a lot of money and he'll know that i know that i know he's weak so he'll think im using that to try and buy the pot and then call with a weak hand"Maybe I have the answer wrong, but the way the hand played out. I think its more likely he missed a draw or had a bad pair and is trying to buy the pot than he went through the though proccess above.

#56 Dan The Man

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Posted 22 October 2006 - 11:25 AM

I would fold. I don't think I could call off most of my stack with just top pair right there. The opponent did play the hand suspiciously though. If he called the raise with suited connectors and hit two pair on the flop, his check to trap makes sense. But if he had pocket nines or eights wouldn't he have reraised preflop to take it down?The turn call is weird also. The board is straightening and now there's two spades. Maybe he hit his draw on the turn and was hoping to trap, taking a chance that we weren't on a flush draw.
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#57 Ramram84

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Posted 22 October 2006 - 07:38 PM

For this question I am assuming the following:1. If we don't know ANYTHING about our opponent, our opponent doesn't know ANYTHING about us 2. If our opponent has made it 8 hours into a $10,000 buy-in tournament, he knows a little something about poker.I would fold the hand for the following reasons:1. First and foremost, I have plenty of chips to survive. I may not be a huge stack right now, but not worth risking it on this hand.2. I haven't slowplayed this hand to try and win more chips. IMO, I've just played it poorly, so no reason to possibly punish myself more.3. I have no reason to believe it is a bluff. If BB decided to play with 10-J, then he/she has played this hand exactly as I would expect.4. his/her chip stack indicates that he/she may be a tight player who might not bet the turn with trips even though it should be bet.This just isn't the time to risk crippling myself.

#58 captcanada

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Posted 22 October 2006 - 10:14 PM

View PostDanielNegreanu, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 1:56 AM, said:

You are dealt A :) K :) and raise from late position to 800. The player in the big blind calls you. The flop comes A :D 9 :) 8 :club:. The big blind checks to you and you decide to play tricky and check behind him. The turn is the 7 :D and your opponent checks again. This time you make a goofy little bet of 1000. Your opponent calls. The river comes the 3 :D and all of a sudden your opponent goes all in for 5400. You have 6300. The question is simple, without knowing ANYTHING about the player, what would you do? It is level five of a $10,000 buy in tournament.
Fold, pot odds,(and you only have top pair), make this a simple fold.He might be bluffing, but I think your up against a monster, my bet would be pocket aces, he flopped top set. With his betting pattern it's the only hand that makes sense.- Called on the flop,(field was already down to 1, and he wanted more action)- Checked to the raiser on the flop(standard move)- Slow played on the turn(he probably felt he was way ahead)- Over bet on the river(to induce a call)

#59 offset

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Posted 23 October 2006 - 06:07 AM

I voted fold but I'm not sure. If level five is near the end of the day or the dinner break there would be a good case for calling. He could have T8, T9, or T7 as well as any number of equally probable bluffing hands. He may assume you will not call with less than two pair. Actually, I change my vote to call.

#60 shpaget

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Posted 23 October 2006 - 10:04 AM

View Postcaptcanada, on Sunday, October 22nd, 2006, 10:14 PM, said:

Fold, pot odds,(and you only have top pair), make this a simple fold.He might be bluffing, but I think your up against a monster, my bet would be pocket aces, he flopped top set. With his betting pattern it's the only hand that makes sense.- Called on the flop,(field was already down to 1, and he wanted more action)- Checked to the raiser on the flop(standard move)- Slow played on the turn(he probably felt he was way ahead)- Over bet on the river(to induce a call)
If you're gonna talk about pot odds you might also want to consider the odds of him have AA....exactly 989:1 are the odds of him having exactly AA as there is only one way for him to have it among the 45 remaining unseen cards.How often does a typical player smooth call a preflop raise with the nuts out of position? (I'm not saying it never happens, but play the odds here)...the vast majority of people will reraise with AA here, and if they are going to smooth call the vast majority of the time they do it in position, not out of position.How often does a typical player check/call with top set when there are two spades AND 789 on the board?What does he think you have where he's not worried about a flush draw or a straight draw?There are 14 hands that beat you on the turn...a typical player either leads or check/raises all of them, including AA.Are there exceptions...yes....does a typical player ALWAYS do it...no...but often enough (like 90%) to be confident in my assessment.You are right about one thing...he's either bluffing or has a monster (set of sevens being the worst possible made hand he has, if it's not a bluff). I've seen no reason to think it's a monster.
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