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Answer To Quizz Question #21


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#1 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 17 October 2006 - 09:49 PM

This question has been around for a while and I've heard both sides of the argument several times. A case could be made for folding if you are at a table that is easy to run over and double your chips safely. Well, with the presence of Ivey and Hansen, you can forget the easy double up, lol. If you think of it in these terms it will help: About 6 out of 10 WSOP's you'll start with 20,000 in chips. That should increase your equity enough to override the fact that 4 times out of 10 you'll be walking back to Houston. In order to win the WSOP you pretty much have to put yourself in several positive equity positions and hope that you come out ahead. Making mathematical errors where you continuously fold while getting the best of it will catch up with you in the long run. I would say that a 60% favorite is too good to pass up, while something like a 55% favorite is something you could argue is a fold you could make. Again, that's provided that you are at a weak table.
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#2 Acid_Knight

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Posted 18 October 2006 - 06:31 AM

View PostDanielNegreanu, on Tuesday, October 17th, 2006, 10:49 PM, said:

About 6 out of 10 WSOP's you'll start with 20,000 in chips. That should increase your equity enough to override the fact that 4 times out of 10 you'll be walking back to Houston.
It's even more +EV when you live 5 miles from the Rio! That way, those 4 times don't seem as bad on the long ride home.

#3 shpaget

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Posted 18 October 2006 - 06:46 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 6:31 AM, said:

It's even more +EV when you live 5 miles from the Rio! That way, those 4 times don't seem as bad on the long ride home.
I came to Vegas in a $70000 Mercedes.I left in a half-million dollar Greyhound.
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#4 Acid_Knight

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Posted 18 October 2006 - 07:15 AM

View Postshpaget, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 7:46 AM, said:

I came to Vegas in a $70000 Mercedes.I left in a half-million dollar Greyhound.
MAN, you must be awesome at poker! :club:

#5 Gunnarr

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Posted 18 October 2006 - 04:03 PM

I find it interesting that 60 percent of those who answered would call as well as the percent to win being 60ish percent.Gunn

#6 yergan

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Posted 18 October 2006 - 08:45 PM

View PostGunnarr, on Thursday, October 19th, 2006, 9:33 AM, said:

I find it interesting that 60 percent of those who answered would call as well as the percent to win being 60ish percent.Gunn
You stole my line!!!

#7 DrZebra

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Posted 20 October 2006 - 12:58 PM

View PostGunnarr, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 5:03 PM, said:

I find it interesting that 60 percent of those who answered would call as well as the percent to win being 60ish percent.Gunn
maybe everybody did what i did:dealt out 5 cards and voted based on that...
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#8 Acid_Knight

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Posted 23 October 2006 - 02:30 PM

View PostDrZebra, on Friday, October 20th, 2006, 1:58 PM, said:

maybe everybody did what i did:dealt out 5 cards and voted based on that...
Interesting tactic. I wonder if they let you do that at the series, ya know, before you call. Just run it out and see if you really should call. It'll reduce your variance.

#9 JaxxVain

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 10:12 AM

Daniel,I might fold based on the fact that Ivey and Hansen are at the table.I would not want to be a target.Wouldn't you want to be in every pot against some crazy player who called all-in on the first hand with AK (an unmade hand)I am not sure I would want Phil and Gus going after me in that respect.
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#10 shpaget

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Posted 24 October 2006 - 10:26 AM

View PostJaxxVain, on Tuesday, October 24th, 2006, 10:12 AM, said:

Daniel,I might fold based on the fact that Ivey and Hansen are at the table.I would not want to be a target.Wouldn't you want to be in every pot against some crazy player who called all-in on the first hand with AK (an unmade hand)I am not sure I would want Phil and Gus going after me in that respect.
I would LOVE for a player like Ivey or Hansen to THINK I'm a maniac because I called an allin with AK - they don't need to know that I called because I knew I was ahead 60-40....if they have a false perception about my play, and they want to attack me with stacks half the size as mine, I'd be the happiest man on Earth.
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#11 Swift_Psycho

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 11:17 AM

View PostJaxxVain, on Tuesday, October 24th, 2006, 1:12 PM, said:

Daniel,I might fold based on the fact that Ivey and Hansen are at the table.I would not want to be a target.Wouldn't you want to be in every pot against some crazy player who called all-in on the first hand with AK (an unmade hand)I am not sure I would want Phil and Gus going after me in that respect.
Like shpaget, I am confused with your reasoning. Are you an actual crazy maniac at the table? If not, then your reasoning makes no sense.

#12 Turbonegro

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 12:00 PM

View Postshpaget, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 9:46 AM, said:

I came to Vegas in a $70000 Mercedes.I left in a half-million dollar Greyhound.
I'd Like to play you heads up...I would call in this position..im here to gamble and win some money..gotta put you cant win what you dont put in the middle..

#13 goferdug

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Posted 12 November 2006 - 11:37 PM

simple simon, what would gus or phil do?GUARANTEE CALL!!!!

#14 MikevJames

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Posted 19 November 2006 - 03:14 PM

Honestly, isn't a fold the best option?Sure, you're a 60/40 favourite, but think of it in tersm of the long run.A) You could tell the person "hey, I'm folding AK," and he may use that to be very aggresive agaisnt you, and honestly, I'd love for that to happen, because it's a perfect set-up for the future.B) You have pretty close to nothing invested on calling a huge raise. Regardless, why gamble on something your barely losing anything on?C) "Big Slick" is often over rated. Sure, it is a huge hand, but its also a huge hand thats consistantly overplayed.Personally, I see it easier to fold.
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#15 Swift_Psycho

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Posted 19 November 2006 - 04:16 PM

View PostMikevJames, on Sunday, November 19th, 2006, 6:14 PM, said:

Honestly, isn't a fold the best option?Sure, you're a 60/40 favourite, but think of it in tersm of the long run.A) You could tell the person "hey, I'm folding AK," and he may use that to be very aggresive agaisnt you, and honestly, I'd love for that to happen, because it's a perfect set-up for the future.B) You have pretty close to nothing invested on calling a huge raise. Regardless, why gamble on something your barely losing anything on?C) "Big Slick" is often over rated. Sure, it is a huge hand, but its also a huge hand thats consistantly overplayed.Personally, I see it easier to fold.
So you admit to not paying attention to all the reasons why your argument sucks?

#16 Acid_Knight

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Posted 20 November 2006 - 09:10 AM

View PostMikevJames, on Sunday, November 19th, 2006, 3:14 PM, said:

Honestly, isn't a fold the best option?Sure, you're a 60/40 favourite, but think of it in tersm of the long run.A) You could tell the person "hey, I'm folding AK," and he may use that to be very aggresive agaisnt you, and honestly, I'd love for that to happen, because it's a perfect set-up for the future.B) You have pretty close to nothing invested on calling a huge raise. Regardless, why gamble on something your barely losing anything on?C) "Big Slick" is often over rated. Sure, it is a huge hand, but its also a huge hand thats consistantly overplayed.Personally, I see it easier to fold.
Yeah, consistently calling bets when you're a solid favorite is bad business. *cough* sarcasm *cough*You can't overplay a hand by calling when you're ahead.

#17 shpaget

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Posted 20 November 2006 - 09:35 AM

View PostMikevJames, on Sunday, November 19th, 2006, 4:14 PM, said:

Honestly, isn't a fold the best option?Sure, you're a 60/40 favourite, but think of it in tersm of the long run.A) You could tell the person "hey, I'm folding AK," and he may use that to be very aggresive agaisnt you, and honestly, I'd love for that to happen, because it's a perfect set-up for the future.B) You have pretty close to nothing invested on calling a huge raise. Regardless, why gamble on something your barely losing anything on?C) "Big Slick" is often over rated. Sure, it is a huge hand, but its also a huge hand thats consistantly overplayed.Personally, I see it easier to fold.
I am thinking the long run.If you play this hand ten times, your profit is 20000 chips.100 times, 200000 chips.1000 times, 2000000 chips.See? It's called math.A. yeah, perfect...he now knows you're weak, and will raise with a wider variety of hands...and you, being weak, will fold most of the time...but will happily wait for him to raise 200 times before you get your AA.B. By this logic you should fold AA for the same reason...that's intelligentC. How do you overplay a hand where you're a 60/40 favourite with no more action?
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#18 simo_8ball

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Posted 20 November 2006 - 09:43 AM

View Postshpaget, on Monday, November 20th, 2006, 5:35 PM, said:

C. How do you overplay a hand where you're a 60/40 favourite with no more action?
Remember, AK is just a drawing hand. Why get allin on a draw this early?

#19 shpaget

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Posted 20 November 2006 - 10:22 AM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Monday, November 20th, 2006, 10:43 AM, said:

Remember, AK is just a drawing hand. Why get allin on a draw this early?
Of course...I keep forgetting that AK isn't a made hand...even against QJ.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#20 simo_8ball

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Posted 20 November 2006 - 10:25 AM

View Postshpaget, on Monday, November 20th, 2006, 6:22 PM, said:

Of course...I keep forgetting that AK isn't a made hand...even against QJ.
Now you're getting it. See if this was 22, you'd be fine calling. 22 is a pair, and therefore a made hand.




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