13 replies to this topic

[MasterLJ]

Hero: MP $900
Villain 1: MP+1 (to my immediate left) $120 (very loose)
Villain 2: Button $500 (straightforward but a trapper, doesn't raise pre-flop much at all, always slow plays)
Villain 3: BB $700

Hero is dealt Dealt J T

Everyone limps, BB checks his option

Flop:

8 5 6

BB leads for $15, I raise to $60, Villain 1 pushes for $120, Villain 2 flat calls, Villain 3 makes max bet ($320).

Besides throwing up, what does Hero do?

Reads: I'm not worried about Villain 1 at all, and only marginally worried about Villain 2. Villain 3 is generally pretty straightforward but he's in the BB. If he has a flush, he could have any flush but I'm pretty scared of him in this situation.

[mikeysong]

erm

your position sucks. You still have the trapper acting after you, you're only invested for $60, I'm throwing it away

[Zach6668]

You don't beat that many flushes.

93, 92, 73, 72, 43, 42, 32.

I suck at poker, and don't fold flushes, but if I did, I think this would be the time to fold.

I don't think a set makes that same play.

[edge52]

Let's try looking at this as a straight pot odds problem.

First the pot odds: 20 in pf, +15, +60, +120, +120, +320 = 635
it costs you 305 to call = 2.1:1 on your call

I think we can analyze implied odds right on the flop too, because I think if you're continuing with this hand, you're going to be getting the money in on the flop. You have everyone covered, so assuming villains 2 + 3 call, there's an extra 360 + 380 = 740 in the pot, or 380 more if villain 2 folds.

So two scenarios after you push:

villain 2 calls, villain 3 calls = 1375 in pot, 4.5:1 implied odds
villain 2 folds, villain 3 calls = 1105 in pot, 3.6:1 implied odds

Now the drawing odds. This part is much easier I think. Either we're ahead with our flush and need to dodge any diamond or possibly the board pairing, or we're up against a higher flush and need some miracle perfect perfect straight flush. If we're ahead, we're the favourite and getting odds besides, and if we're behind, we clearly don't have the odds to draw.

So, based on the pot odds we can push and be wrong (up against a higher flush) about 3 times in 4 (given some mix of villain 2 calling and folding. I'm just averaging 4.5 and 3.6 to about 4, so gotta be right 1 time in 4) and still show some profit on the hand. Are you 80% sure you're up against a higher flush?

Of course you know villain 3 the best, but I think Zach's right that there aren't many flushes you beat here, and it seems doubtful he'd be betting a set at this point. I'd say I'm 75% sure I'm beat, just to make things fun


P.S. I might have gotten the math really wrong here, I haven't done a whole lot of this kind of analysis.

[Zach6668]

Ya, I suck at math for some reason now.

Your implied odds make no sense, btw, since we aren't drawing...

[edge52]

Ya, I suck at math for some reason now.

Your implied odds make no sense, btw, since we aren't drawing...

Isn't being up at 7:30 am awesome? anyways...you're right, we're not drawing so the term "implied odds" isn't technically correct. But I think the general concept is the same.

If we win the hand, we win the pot, which will be bigger if our opponents put more chips into it. The number of extra chips they have available to be put in the pot is what we can win. So even though we're not drawing, these chips represent our implied odds in a sense.

Remember in Harrington 2 the problems that basically broke down to: You're 60% sure that you're beat, but the pot is paying you 7:1. To turn down 7:1 odds you'd have to be 86% (1/7 * 100 is how often a 1 in 7 event will occur) sure you're beat and you're not here, so you have to call. That's what I'm trying to get at.

(Though of course the OP may be 80% sure he's beaten in his situation. Deciding whether or not he can be this sure, not boring math stuff, is the interesting part of his problem)

[iggymcfly]

I'd call down here. I don't think a nut flush or a straight-flush is likely to max-bet here since they would want to commit you to the pot and collect max-bets on the turn and river.

Also, a set or two pair could very likely to make this bet to try to protect against a diamond draw. All in all, I think you're ahead over 50% of the time here, but not enough to raise.

[No_Neck]

you have to call. GAMBOOOOOOOOOL I know it is in you Zach


I just realized the MLJ posted this. Whoops

[edge52]

Also, a set or two pair could very likely to make this bet to try to protect against a diamond draw. All in all, I think you're ahead over 50% of the time here, but not enough to raise.

I dunno, villain 3 is a 'straightforward' player who's seen a bet, raise and reraise (although it was a minraise push) in front of him, and he still comes in for the maximum bet.

[MasterLJ]

Don't read if you don't want results:










The secret to cash games is to wait for good opportunities and to pick on short stacks. I'm sitting on a fat stack and have little invested. It should have been an easy laydown. If I call, I'm calling away an extra $600 on top of the additional $260 I have to call. Part of the reason I called was due to the looseness of the game and I figured there was a small chance that BB had a set or a smaller flush. He would have slowed down if he had a small flush.

Villain 1: 85os
Villain 2: Rockets with Ad
Villain 3: Kd 4d

I called, and called his subsequent turn bet (10 clubs)
River was a 6, pairing the board. He put in another $200 and I threw it away. Yeah yeah yeah, throwing it away is awful but I did end up saving $200.

[Zach6668]

You don't beat that many flushes.

93, 92, 73, 72, 43, 42, 32.

I suck at poker, and don't fold flushes, but if I did, I think this would be the time to fold.

I don't think a set makes that same play.

[edge52]

Yah, guess I was right too. In my analysis I forgot about the extra money to put everyone in, so you actually only needed to be about 40% sure you were beat to fold. Pretty clear fold on a nice hand. Ah well, live and learn.

[MasterLJ]

Yah, guess I was right too. In my analysis I forgot about the extra money to put everyone in, so you actually only needed to be about 40% sure you were beat to fold. Pretty clear fold on a nice hand. Ah well, live and learn.

Yeah, it's a lay down I think is pretty standard. Don't know why I got caught up in it. Some of the live players are just so terrible that often times you'll see all sorts of crazy combinations of over cards, sets and two pair here that I felt I might actually be protected from the board pairing if indeed I had the best hand.

[No_Neck]

Don't read if you don't want results:
The secret to cash games is to wait for good opportunities and to pick on short stacks. I'm sitting on a fat stack and have little invested. It should have been an easy laydown. If I call, I'm calling away an extra $600 on top of the additional $260 I have to call. Part of the reason I called was due to the looseness of the game and I figured there was a small chance that BB had a set or a smaller flush. He would have slowed down if he had a small flush.

Villain 1: 85os
Villain 2: Rockets with Ad
Villain 3: Kd 4d

I called, and called his subsequent turn bet (10 clubs)
River was a 6, pairing the board. He put in another $200 and I threw it away. Yeah yeah yeah, throwing it away is awful but I did end up saving $200.

I don't see a problem with throwing it away, I mean you put him on three of a kind as one of the major hands you can beat.....now you can't beat that.

Yeah, it's a lay down I think is pretty standard. Don't know why I got caught up in it. Some of the live players are just so terrible that often times you'll see all sorts of crazy combinations of over cards, sets and two pair here that I felt I might actually be protected from the board pairing if indeed I had the best hand.

AA with the A of diamonds is a common holding too.


I know 20/20 perfect I got it.